Storm or bad weather?

Just click on the graphic. This is last night’s recording which I did for SouthFront.

Storm?

It’s entitled “New Storm”. The word “storm” is used as a metaphor often to describe military things - as in “Desert Storm” or “Operation Storm” or “Storm Troops”, or “taking by storm”. When the weather “storms”, it is usually short and violent. So we are talking about something like that.

But the SMO is not a “war” in the time-honored sense. Violent, yes, but not short.

The SMO is slow. Not the Shock & Awe stuff popularized by Hollywood. It’s gone on for three years and it could be a couple of years more before it is really over.

It is more like geopolitical climate change — incremental, gradual, a lot of little things building up to eventually reach a “tipping point” which you hardly know happens whe it does. With world-scale meteorological climate change, the effects can be huge —rising oceans, desertification in some places, impossible temperatures, greening in other places, populations displaced, changes in ocean currents and - oh yes —storms — creating a different world. People die just as in a war.

The SMO promises changes in the cultural, geopolitical and civilizational climate of the entire world. It is a trigger event. The world is already very, very different as a result, and it will get worse.

What will the world be like in the end” No one knows. No one can predict. Just there will be no going back. Sorry MAGA folks.

I am sure Vladimir Putin would say the same. So he is going slow. A step at a time. In the Ukraine, a village here, a village there.

The Video

As ever, SouthFront supplies a lot of information.

It details the way the summer offensive in Ukraine is shaping up as Russia advances in the Dnepropetrovsk region, and the Lugansk People’s Republic liberated except for residual pockets of Ukie resistance. Ukrainian casualties have been very high; Russians fewer than usual.

The Summer Offensive is shaping up to give Russia major strategic gains in Eastern Ukraine. Summy is the stepping stone to Russian speaking Chernihiv. But there is a long way to go.

Dnepropetrovsk is the key to Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and finally Odessa

For its own security, Russia must take ALL of these oblasts, which are likely to vote for incorporation in the RF or for “union” status like Belarus— autonomous but allied to the RF.

Considering Russia’s problems with former republics like Armenia and Azerbaijan, the slow pace of the Russian advance has an advantage seldom remarked on — the exodus of Ukrainian “nationalists” to Western Ukraine, leaving local populations mostly Russian,

This kind of population shift would be unsurprising. For example, in 1990, Chechyna was about 25% Russian. Today, it is 1.2%. And happy to be “Russian” ! Go figure!

You will also see ethnic Russians displaced by the war returning, influenced by the rapid economic progress of the LPR and DPR and governmental incentives for development in Ukraine.

How long will this process take?

Obviously, quite a while. So much has to change.

The Western Ukrainians will keep on fighting until forced back to the Polish border. This reluctance to accept defeat is irrational. But so is war.

For example, the Germans knew they were finished in 1944 —that they could not defeat the Soviets — but they kept on fighting, hoping they could ally with the West against the USSR.

That alliance was not in the cards, so Hitler kept on fighting anyway until his eventual suicide.

The NeoNazis in Ukraine will not accept defeat either. Then, they, like the German Nazis who didn’t kill themselves can escape to the West.

If there is a “West” at that point. Remember how I said how the SMO is the harbinger of a new era— a new geopolitical climate and we don’t know what the effects will be:

10, 000 years ago we were simple hunters and gatherers. Then came climate change and we invented the first “civilizations”— and war— neither of which had happened before. Blame the weather.

Will European states collapse? Over the centuries, the map of Europe has changed over and over. Remember when Britain was Roman? Then came the Angles and Saxons and Danes. And the Norman French. And today people from all over the world.

Remember when France was mostly ruled by the British?

The Holy Roman Empire?

It goes on an on. MEGA. Make Europe Great Again.

Italy and Germany appeared as nation states in historical terms almost overnight in the mid to late 19th Centuries.

The US? Once 13 colonies facing the Atlantic. Now a global empire—and falling apart.

Normally, when we talk about “climate” we are talking about temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, stuff like that. There are so many factors. Which is why weather prediction often fails. Multivariate analysis has to really take into account every variable

The same applies when you try to predict changes in the political and geopolitical climates.

One thing appears certain .

The Russians are coming. The Russians are coming.

Genes ‘R Us

So we have now recreated the Dire Wolf, which is really a Grey Wolf with 14 or so DireWolf genes. Looks like a wolf. Acts like a wolf. So what’s the difference between a grey wolf, some of which are white and dire wolves? Nobody really knows.

Then again, what’s the difference between a dire wolf and this butterfly wolf?.

A couple of genes, I guess.

OK. So I’m a mutant. Mutants evolved to need coffee.

Please buy me and Chappy and Ichi coffee. We are all mutants. Click HERE!