Talk is cheap

Is Trump a serious person?

I am sure you have watched the discussion between the two Alex’s on the Duran about Putin’s “Novorossiya Speech”.

Putin has made several speeches recently, at the Expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board and to the United Russia party congress. And his opinions on “Novorossiya” and its history are well known.

The Duran’s point of view is based on Putin’s consistent comments on negotiations – namely that Russia is always willing to negotiate – more correctly to “talk”— but cannot do so with Ukraine which has no legitimate government. It is open to honest dialogue with anyone.

That naturally means no negotiations with NATO --which doesn’t want negotiations with Russia at all—Britain, Germany and France hoping to continue the war to keep the US supporting them.

But Russia is happy to talk to Trump whose has made a negotiated end to the Ukraine war major policy. So far his idea of a “solution” seems unrealistic. And for the Russians, “talking” and concluding agreements are two quite different things.

No, the Russians will not agree to an immediate ceasefire.

No , they will not accept NATO troops in Ukraine as “peacekeepers”.

No, they will not agree to just keeping the parts of Donbas they have won so far—they want the whole republic liberated from occupation.

The Alex’s (what IS the plural of “Alex”?) talk a lot about Putin’s much-used term “Novorossiya” or “New Russia” —which was the word used for what is now Donbas, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Crimea Odessa and Nikolaev and the Black Sea coast, prior to WWI.

However, the rest of modern Ukraine prior to WWI was also regarded as Russian, including large areas of what are now “Western Ukraine” and, of course, Kiev. That is why Russian is still the language of choice for most Ukrainians – even Zelensky. “Ukrainian: speaking Ukraine was mostly centered in Galicia, the neo-Nazi homeland.

Russian forces are advancing not only in Donbas but also in Kharkov and Sumy. When Donbas falls, the Russians can take Krivoy Rog to the Northwest and the Black Sea Coast to the South. They will be many options by the time Trump takes office.

Logically, taking all of Ukraine up to NATO borders offers Russia security— which is important given the bellicose attitude of the collapsing barbarian empire to the West. That includes Galicia, which needs to be purged of neo-Nazis, who will flee to Poland or the Baltics, where they are unlikely to be welcome—unless they have money. Some will have that – most will not.

Blue parts Novorossiya

But what about “negotiations”—which the Alex’s think will happen to keep Trump happy?

The Russians don’t trust Trump having seen him in action. They don’t care if he is happy or not. The Americans have proven their enmity and their lack of international morality. They are agreement incapable — and that includes the Donald whose record really does not inspire trust.

So the Russians may opt for Vietnam type negotiations. – which in fact Mercouris brought up without realizing what the importance of this idea.

During the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese and the Americans began negotiating in 1968 so that the Americans could withdraw from what had become an increasingly unpopular and expensive war supporting the American-installed South Vietnamese government. The Vietnamese realized that that they had to be patient and ease them out.

It took a long time. The Americans began withdrawal of troops in 1969 but the official agreement was only signed in 1973. In the meantime, the war continued The US had carried out some of its heaviest bombing of Vietnam even in 1972.

The Americans finally ceased military actions against the Vietnamese in 1973. T

Peace negotiations between Vietnam and the US and the signing of the Agreement did not mean the end of the war between North and South Vietnam – hey were just an off ramp for the US —who never really cared about the South Vietnamese.

The North Vietnamese then over-ran Saigon in 1975.

The Pathets took Lao in 1975 too.

In the 70s, the US had too many problems domestically. This time ‘round, they also have too many problems at home. For Trump the war against Ukraine is just a distraction.Now, the US once again wants an off ramp.

So, the Russians will talk… or, as the Americans will have it – “negotiate”-- but these talks will not result in any ceasefire, between Russia and Ukraine – nor any agreement that doesn’t directly benefit Moscow because, of course, the Russians hold all the cards. The US has minus leverage.

The end result is simple: Ukraine surrenders unconditionally. Russia holds referenda — and most oblasts go with the winner while the Nazis flee.

So ‘negotiations” will be nothing but show. In any case, they only work when they are done in good faith and when both parties have something to bargain with. The Russians have no faith in the West. The Americans have no concept of “good”. And nothing to offer that Russia wants.

In Vietnam, the Americans could only offer one thing — to leave .

So, the Russians will continue the SMO while they “talk” —which is good for their global image. But Ukraine is already a fait accompli..

Russia will take all of Ukraine, then sign a palliative “agreement” to respect human rights and ensure democracy in the conquered oblasts,which will be allowed to vote for inclusion in the Russian Federation, autonomy as Union States or demilitarized neutral states, not allowed to join NATO or the EU and economically dependent on Russia.

Trump will say, “See I saved democracy and freedom”—knowing the MSM have portrayed Russia as an evil totalitarian regime —and quickly turn his attention elsewhere. The Media will have already moved on.

After all, those “talks” could take a couple of years! Americans have an attention span the length of a YouTube ad. Hit the “skip” button.

Special Article

Working on the Special Article — now well over 3000 words, I looked at a lot of articles by British and American psychologists and psychiatrists on Putin and Xi Jinping. Oh my…..Jargon and bias…!. These are people with PhDs from the “best” universities?

It is sad.

Fortunately, there are far better sources than such people. I expected it but I had to check anyway. I really need to finish this special article before Putin does his year-end address, which will be another special article.

In the meantime, Ichi is adjusting very well. Chappy is still nervous and comes out only at night — pretty “normal” for re-homing a feral cat. Another couple of weeks—sigh. .

Please click here to buy Ichi, Chappy and I Holiday Season coffee!

Below Ichi recovering from a Japanese catnip holiday hangover.