The best defense is offense?

You will read a lot of conflicting reports about the Ukrainian offensive across the border into the Kursk region of Russia.

The Western media, of course, are cheering the Ukrainians on --in an operation, which some say has been set up by the British, exploiting the long border between Eastern Ukraine and Russia where Russia to date is not set up minefields or fortifications or concentrated troops as it did in southern Ukraine.

The initial Ukie offensive involved just about 1000 men, in small assault groups, backed up in the rear by larger reserve force of 6500, plus tanks. armored fighting vehicles, artillery and the like.

Despite not having a lot of troops on the ground but enjoying the advantages of air power, artillery and UAVs, the Russians annihilated most of the initial force in a couple of days, which being broken into small groups was relatively slow moving .

Thermobaric rocket launcher

As a result Ukrainians threw their reserves into the battle-- although the terrain is not really to their advantage being mostly open ground and forest and larger groups were conspicuous.

The Ukrainian goal was of course to reach the Kursk nuclear power plant-- at least to get close enough to damage it. That’s not going to happen. But they have launched missile attacks.

As a precautionary measure the NPP has reduced power output, affecting the nearby strategic city of Kurchatov. But the plant is secure.

So far, since this offensive has started, the Russians say the Ukrainians have lost more than 900 men. But this figure could not include those killed or injured in FAB bomb strikes, which do a lot of damage with no way for the Russians to accurately of count the dead afterwards. Russian MOD figures are always conservative.

New Russian 3000 kg powered glide bomb

We can assume a figure of about 1200 casualties or more.

Some sources say that the Ukrainians are preparing a second attack force –although this would almost entirely exhaust their reserves.

Alex Mercouris asked the question as to why these border areas were minimally defended. I am sure many Russians are asking the same questions— and upset.

The reasons are several.

a. It’s a long border

b. Success is impossible, so the Russians assumed the Nazis wouldn’t try.

c. Russia controls the skies, and has the advantage in firepower overall with the Ukrainians exposed in open land. They can defend without committing troops and attrit enemy forces in large numbers.

d. An offensive like this establishes the need for the Russians to take full control of ALL of Ukraine—as Medvedev—and many Russians— have been recommending.

e.) An attack on Russia proper with Western help invites the kind of retaliatory measures the West should want to avoid, namely asymmetric retaliation in the Middle East.

b.) Is Mercouris’ answer: the Russians couldn’t imagine the Ukrainians would do something stupid. Of course, it wasn’t the Ukrainian’s idea – it was the Brits.

All in all, it may have been stupid. But it keeps the war going. And that’s money for those in power.

The Western media is naturally claiming success for the Ukrainians.

The Russian media is highlighting attacks on civilians and the NPP and terrorist activities –and the threat in general. This is resulting in a surge of new volunteers for the military and a hardening of Russian attitudes towards not only Ukraine but the West. The Russian defense forces will be further upgraded with the command structure rationalized.

There will be no room for negotiations or compromise with Ukraine or the West.

The Russians are tightening security in their border regions in Eastern Ukraine, anticipating a terrorist campaign after this.

In Eastern Ukraine, it is a long border. The Russians are not going to fortify the border or tie up troops there. The best defense is offense. They are very likely to accelerate their offensive in the South and establish a safe zone in Eastern Ukraine.

Expect a very different Ukraine in the New Year of 2025.

Are You Normal?

My Special Report Are You Normal? exploring the major shift in human consciousness accompanying the decline and fall of the Western Collective has been mailed, with also the previous report, American Borg, to those who requested.

Are you Normal? (No, you are not!) ended up at 4400 words! I am indebted to Occupy Schagen for his advice and raising my awareness of the complexities of human cognition. Occupy is a frequent commenter and you can find him on X or here. He has done ground-breaking research into human cognitive development.

Next up is …Part III ..which deals with the predictable collapse of the neoliberal, neofeudal financial model.

In the meantime if you buy a coffee for Ichi and Chappy and me, I can send to Are You Normal? and also the previous report it you didn’t get it.

History as we know has ended. History as we don’t know it has begun. Apologies to Fukuyama.