The Death Rattle of Kiev
I had thought of posting last night about the Ukrainian terrorist attack on a bridge and train in Russia which killed and injured a lot of people.
But I had an intuition that this attack would be quickly followed by others insofar as such desperate actions usually come in waves – a bit like the kamikaze attacks on the Allied fleet just before Tokyo surrender in 1945.
The damage took a couple of weeks to repair.
Such attacks do damage – but they are inevitably self-defeating. In the case of the Japanese air forces, they had fewer and fewer pilots to do anything other than die.
So today there was a lot in the news from Ukrainian sources, claiming to have destroyed 30 to 40% of Russia's bomber fleet with drone attacks launched from trucks all over Russia!
In fact, it seems that three or four, even five aircraft were damaged on one, at the most two airfields – not necessarily “destroyed” but let us assume not worth repairing. There were extensive fires from fuel tanks which produced a lot of smoke, but the extent of the damage is not known.
The aircraft jot were TU 95' turboprops, first flown in 1952! And maybe a transport aircraft the Ukrainians described hopefully as an AWACS A50. The Tu95s are really overdue for retirement but the Russians” waste not and want not.” The destroyed aircraft may have included a Tu22 (1959).
The Ukrainians claim that all their sabotage teams returned safely – except for the driver of one truck, who was reportedly strangled with a zip tie!
In 1945, the Japanese media was claiming to have sunk all sorts of American aircraft carriers and battleships with kamikaze attacks. The attacks certainly did damage, especially to the unarmored decks of American aircraft carriers, and killed some sailors– but they in no way affected the capability of the Allied forces which continued to firebomb Tokyo and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
What the kamikaze attacks did do was to encourage the Allied High Command’s stereotype of the Japanese a savages with no respect for human life – and that absolute force was necessary to subdue them. No one would be spared.
After all, they were giving bamboo spears to high school girls.
All this made it easier for those who wanted to convince the President to test an atomic bomb on real, living people.
There are important differences in the way the Russians are conducting the SMO -- the Russians do not attribute responsibility for the savagery and brutality and atrocities dealt out in the Donbas and Lugansk and Russian border regions to their Slavic brothers West of the Dnieper-- but rather to the British and the Americans and the Europeans— without whose help the Kiev regime would have collapsed long ago.
I should mention that the West makes sure that Ukrainian high school girls get something better than bamboo spears.
Ukraine: dumb and dumber
It will be extraordinarily difficult for any Russian leader, even Putin, to compromise at this point-- especially with these Ukrainian "negotiating points" in Istanbul.
▪️Complete ceasefire for 30 days
▪️Prisoner exchange "all for all"
▪️Meeting between Zelensky and Putin
▪️No restrictions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
▪️Lack of international recognition of new Russian territories
▪️Payment of reparations by Russia
Imagine if the Japanese had demanded that the allies accept a cease-fire in 1945, pay reparations, and allow the Empire to keep the Philippines, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Indonesia – along with Manchuria of course, and the rest of China.
The Allies would have a good laugh. And then: “Let’s nuke Mt. Fuji, too!” Lucky they only had two bombs.
What happens next?
What happens next in the SMO?
After the Istanbul talks finish, you can expect massive Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, especially the electrical grid. There are calls to take out the Kievan leadership – Zelensky-- but why do the Azov’s job for them? You really don’t want someone half way competent in charge, do you?
The Russians will finally start building fortified hangers for their bombers, which are currently parked in the open – a hangover from the Old START agreements in order to permit monitoring by satellite. With massive pubic demand for reform, there will also be a further shakeup in the military command, with younger officers moving up.
Strategically, Russia will expand its buffer zone east of the Dnieper right up to the river with the goal of eventually including not just the Kharkov and Sumy regions but all the other oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Besides, rather than blowing up the bridges to stop Ukrainian supply westwards as some have suggested, just sit on one end of the bridge and blow up UAF trucks.
The Russians will later incorporate the oblasts on the Black Sea in the Federation, especially Odessa,which the Europeans covet. After cutting off supply lines to these areas, of course.
In Russia itself, they will increase internal security close to military installations and airbases wherever they are.
They will not seek to repress dissent — the public will do that, closing ranks—angry against anyone speaking for "moderation" "or compromise . More people will volunteer to fight.
The Chechen Model
In the end, however, the Russians will deal with Ukraine as they previously dealt with Chechnya – which was also a conflict driven by foreign forces, including the CIA – with numerous bloody terrorist incidents that galvanized public support for Putin.
In those days, Moscow didn't have the resources that it has today. The first Chechen war had been brutal. When the Second Chechen war began it was even more brutal but Putin was able to cultivate local political division, recruiting principled Islams like Akhmat Kadyrov, whose son, Ramzan, now rules the Republic and whose forces are fighting for Russia in the Ukraine. Akhmat Kadyrov had fought the Russians in the first war, but he saw the wisdom of Chechen autonomy protected by the Russian Federation against jihadism from the South.
Opposition to the Kiev regime and the Banderites is growing in Western Ukraine and a compromise similar to that engineered in Chechyna would be benefit to everyone.
Except the US and Europe, of course.
The whole point of Zelensky demanding a meeting with Putin, of course, is to legitimize himself in the eyes Ukrainians and prevent a coup. It is said that his security detail are all seconded from MI6, fearing assassination by Ukrainians.
MI6 “assets”
Who will be Ukraine’s Ahkmat Kadyrov?
This is a purge of democratic principles and institutions under the guise of war. I said once that it smells of authoritarianism in our country. Now it stinks. Kiev Mayor Klitschko
The only reason that Zelensky has not acted against Klitschko— unlike other deserters from his cause in Ukraine - is that Klitschko is hugely popular and and the Green Gob fears a backlash.
Coffee Comments
While finishing off Special Article Putin 4, I am not writing messages to all those who bought me coffees recently. Sorry, if I ramble a bit. I really like this kind of engagement.
Click here to buy coffee and support the Chappy & Ichi Collective. Cats serve too.
"The Russians will finally start building fortified hangers for their bombers, which are currently parked in the open – a hangover from the Old START agreements in order to permit monitoring by satellite".
According to The Duran, the Russians have still been adhering to the requirements of that treaty; and that was the only reason those bombers were so vulnerable. Pictures that I have seen today show the Kiev thug who claims responsibility for the attacks with two large photographs, presumably taken from a satellite, of the Russian aircraft in question.
Note that this clears the UK of giving Kiev the satellite pictures, as the UK has no satellites.
Dima at Military Summary states that it is Mr Trump who is really in trouble, as the satellite photos implicate the US government in attacks on Russian aircraft parked in accordance with the START treaty. That means the US government has taken advantage of Russia's adherence to the treaty to do serious damage to its deterrent capability. And that threatens the peace and the lives of everyone in the world.
"What the kamikaze attacks did do was to encourage the Allied High Command’s stereotype of the Japanese a savages with no respect for human life – and that absolute force was necessary to subdue them. No one would be spared".
I can't give you chapter and verse, but years ago while reading a big and authoritative book about the Pacific War I unearthed one fascinating fact. Namely, the first military pilot to crash his aircraft deliberately into the enemy was in fact American. I think he was flying a bomber based in the Philippines when the Japanese invaded. Seeing that there was no one else to oppose the landings, he dived into a Japanese ship.
Exercise for the student: imagine how different was the standard US description of his "heroic self-sacrifice, loyalty, courage, spirit", etc.