The End of the War--or a Beginning
Yesterday….
Yesterday’s video on Ukrainian conscription did not have a link. I have corrected that. Take a look!
So now, we appear to have a “Memorandum of Understanding” so-called, which may or may not be signed on Friday, but Israel continues its policy of murder in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.
The US could stop it anytime it wanted to - had it the will, by cutting off weapons and military and financial support. Why not?
Nasrallah explained it long before.
Things are different now. Iran has wiped out radars and bases across the Middle East. The last exchange hurt the US severely. Radars gone. Some say at least 12 F35s destroyed on the ground in Jordan. Probably not that many stealth fighters — but the losses of aircraft are substantial.
Iran just published all 14 clauses of the MoU.
Read them carefully, because this is not the deal Trump described.
The headline numbers: $300 billion in reconstruction commitments from the US and allies. $24 billion in released frozen funds, half before negotiations even start.
Complete naval blockade lifted within 30 days. US forces withdrawn from around Iran.
Here’s the big one: Hormuz reopens under Iranian arrangements, meaning Iran keeps management of the strait.
The nuclear clause is Clause 9: Iran reiterates its commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. That’s it. No enrichment cap. No dismantlement. No inspector access beyond existing frameworks.
The actual nuclear terms get negotiated in a separate 60-day window.
Clause 14 explicitly removes Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups from the agenda entirely.
Permanently. Iran’s Deputy FM called it a total victory this morning. He wasn’t spinning.
Mehr News / Writer: Oliver
It is only a victory if the US signs on, which it really, really doesn’t want to do.
Read Oliver’s post above carefully.
To finalize the memorandum and turn it into a real peace agreement, the US must put up $300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction in addition to the $12 billion due Friday as a sign of good faith and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets afterwards.
OK. Direct military expenses are a measly $29 billion says the White House but:
And who actually benefits most from getting the oil flowing again?
Naturally, the US doesn’t really want this “deal”. On the other hand, Trump needs something, with the midterms looming.
Is Trump relying on Israel to scupper the deal, so he can insist on his good intentions, saying “I told them but they didn’t listen”.
He, of course,has bribed Iran not to respond to the ZioNazi’s recent bombing of Beirut. But what if the Israelis continue, forcing Iran to respond? Trump just shakes his head, and says “I tried”. He can have his memorandum and eat it too. He still makes a bundle from the market.
In this way, he can manipulate the news cycle. And maybe the war starts over again in a two weeks as a proxy war.
There are many opinions. Bertrand sees the America policy as a “failure of coercion—but the US has no other policy than coercion, which is why it usually applies indirectly through
proxies.
Most likely, this "deal" is - at this stage - less a deal than an acknowledgement of the new status quo reached in the war. It differs from the April 5 ceasefire in that, this time, the US is lifting all coercion it introduced in the war - including the naval blockade it imposed on April 13. So in effect the war had two phases of failed coercion (military, then economic with the blockade), and the MOU formalizes the failure of both. Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand
The best thing for the world would be for the US to sign off on the 14 point deal and let Iran bomb Israel until it withdraws from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank.
But how likely is that? Take a look at the Nasrallah video with which I began? The problem is not Trump. The Democrats were just as bad. But all US Presidents respond to the culture. The problem is the Zombie Class - the public.
But the brain eaters are beginning to suffer. The US’s economic crisis is just beginning.
Energy prices will stay high. Fracking cannot compensate for LNG shortages. And there is a Super El Nino on the way— which means, floods, drought, wildfires — and - adding in shortages of fertilizers as a result of the war — higher food prices. Inflation. Stagflation. And Trump has wasted billions on unnecessary wars to make all this happen.
Chappy is a Feral Cat.
It has taken more than a year to win his trust. But it was worth is.
Support New Forensics.
Help Ichi and Chappy and their feral guy by buying us coffee at https://buymeacoffee.com/julicow/
Good analysis, given the unknown, but guessed influence the Zionists have on Trump.
It is clear, that a restart of the War will exterminate the US influence over West-Asia, exterminate regimes in the region who are used by the Zionists and ravage the world Economy. Even exterminating Israel.
So, who can win ?
Cassandra
Re: Chappy feral. We adopted a pair of supposedly bonded brothers from our local Humane Society. They weren't hostile, as in hissing, scratching, biting when approached but they were afraid of humans and everything else. Totally skittish. After 2 years they are coming around to us but when company shows up they run and hide under the bed covers. It's actually funny.
They are really nice cats (all cats are nice actually) and we have some people that are really interested in meeting our cats. One is going to be a big cat and just like big humans has a really mellow personality. The other is smarter, smaller and more mischievous and also a nice boy. Maybe in another 5 years they will be hopefully fully socialized, I hope.