The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

The war is won but it is not over – nor will it be for some time. The Fat Lady hasn’t sung.

The special article

My special article for coffee buyers is getting longer and longer – it looks like it's now TWO articles, not one. I will send both at the same time. Soon….yeah.. I know I keep on saying that….

But…l

This article seems to have a mind of its own – going beyond past events and happenings to look at the bigger picture against which the probabilities of future events and happenings define themselves.

It deals with both Putin's Address to the Federal Assembly and Biden's State of the Union speech— not so much of what they say. More of what they mean!

The State of the Union speech defines US policy up until Trump takes office next year, maybe longer, since even if the Donald decides to change gears, tactically —so to speak—that does not necessarily mean him changing direction strategically – the road having already been chosen by the Deep State.

As we've seen before, Trump is a large frog sitting on a lily pad in the Swamp. Where would he go if there was no Swamp? The frog eats bugs. And where do the bugs come from? You guessed it – the Swamp.

Forget draining it.

In the case of Putin, he has already calculated what the Americans will do under Biden – since the Dodderer-in-Chief is too old to change his ways.

Trump? Who knows? He changes from moment to moment.

Russian objectives

No matter, Russia's objectives are now pretty clear. They include the creation of "Novorossiya"—which will include all of eastern and southern Ukraine including much of the west bank of the Dnieper, as well as Odessa and Transnistria.

Right now, the pace of the war is slow – and will remain so. The Russians could arguably end the conflict right now if they really, really wanted to— but they don’t.

As time goes on, Ukrainians lose more and more men and equipment – and the US and NATO spend more and more money on support for Ukraine—weakening themselves.

Of course, it is true that American “aid” really goes to aid American defense industries with their evermore complex and expensive projects – in the end impractical in terms of any real war.

That cannot continue forever.

Getting and spending

One of the takeaways from my special article is this.

Notice the huge increase in the Russian budget expenditures but the slightly bigger increase in revenues.

At the same time Russian debt has decreased from about 18% to just over 10% of GDP—almost all of it internal debt.

American debt is about 124% of GDP up this year by 2% – but 95% is external.

In other words, the US is vulnerable to external financial shock. Living on borrowed money. Therefore, living on borrowed time.

Right now, Uncle Sam is financing is weapons industry by borrowing, using the reserve status of the dollar. If there's a global economic crisis, most Americans will be in deep doo-doo.

Russia, on the other hand, is well-positioned to withstand a global economic crisis.

While you might assume that most of Russia's expenditures are going to defense spending, they are not – the money is mostly being spent on social improvements – infrastructure, education, healthcare, vocational training-- and of course rebuilding its new / old territories in the Ukraine with great improvements.

In fact, in the event of a global economic crisis, Russia may actually profit.

The Envy Thing

People in Western Ukraine can only envy the progress that the Russian Federation is making and the lifestyles they enjoy.

Many Ukrainian kids taken in by the Russians and then repatriated were reportedly unhappy about going home. They say they had much better lives in Russia (according to the Ukrainians themselves).

Dissident Americans who visit Russia are also envious— at least, of some things.

No country is perfect, of course— every culture has pros and cons.

Let's just say the US, perhaps more than any other country, resists the idea of fundamental change – even though it desperately needs a “New Deal” in social and material infrastructure – education, healthcare, transportation, and so on.

The country is divided. It is falling apart like its political parties. .

Sucking the blood out of the German economy to pay for a war in Ukraine and genocide in the Middle East merely accelerates national disintegration.

America could learn a lot from Russia. But no American university offers a course in common sense.

So it is that while Americans talk about high-quality, affordable housing , Russians build it.

Russia is rising…

Evidence is the speed with which Russian "Occupied Ukraine" is recovering.

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Subsidies will be provided for housing construction, urban area development and repairs of water supply facilities, power networks and maritime and road infrastructure.

The development of the Free Economic Zone established in the new regions will be an important instrument to support the investors. The FEZ offers preferences including tax incentives and lower insurance fees until December 31, 2050.

When was the last time, your government did anything useful for you?

Military Progress

For the US, might makes right – and since 1945 the Russians have always been under threat since the Americans, like the British and the Germans before them, don't quite see the Russians as human. Putin calls Russophobia racism and he’s right.

So, the Russians now are also building a new 21^st Century military taking advantage of the SMO is a test ground.

Western militaries are trained for lightning wars using the most advanced technologies available. Inevitably, however, military training in the West looks back to World War II or even earlier. And the West mostly loses.

Putin so far mostly wins. He studied judo and combat Sambo, which is in many ways like the jujitsu from which judo evolved. In the martial arts adaptability is the key to victory. So too, on the battlefield,

Advanced air defense systems, drones, electronic warfare devices and other innovations have revolutionized warfare. Artillery still rules. But tank to tank warfare is an anachronism. Air supremacy is limited by air defense systems.

The Russians learn from their mistakes. NATO does not. Maybe that's because their entire war is a mistake? And the system behind it is a mistake too.

NATO has one rule – when shit hits the fan— blame the fan. Maybe two rules — one must also obey the teachings of God—still an old guy but living in the White House. Don’t eat the Apple — knowledge of good and evil.

The Russians follow KISS. Keep It Simple Stupid.

In other words, use whatever works and upgrade it. Don’t waste money – don't waste lives.

Tanks—but no tanks

While Western commentators diss the new Armata Tank, it is generally considered the most advanced tank in the world.

Western media like Newsweek, CNN, Business Insider, and especially Forbes disagree.

"No!", they say, "the" Russians had planned for over 2000 of these tanks by 2025 but, no, it will likely be 50, mostly as demonstrators for export customers." And they sneer -- “this is why the Russians are losing.”

Then they say that the Russians are winning.

Journalistic dissonance? A new term for an old thing. Stupidity.

The Russians have good reasons not to push development of this tank despite its technological superiority – namely they don't need it—not when they still have a lot of upgraded T72s, T80s, and T90s which are not only cheaper but also easier to produce. Similarly, they don't need to buy a lot of SU 57 Stealth fighters, which have only recently achieved GEN 5.0 status.

In either case, they don't face any of the kind of challenges that might require these somewhat pricier equipment.

In addition, unlike the Americans, the Russians don't put into service military tech like the F 35, which is still only 50% operable-- despite being the most expensive fighter project in history,

Su 57 developed to carry hypersonic weapons

The Russians do not throw away money in the defense sector like Americans do – but that's because defense contractors work for the government in Russia not the other way around as in the US.

The Slow War

Right now, the Russians are taking their time in the Donbas, taking one village at a time, and testing new weapons such as the FAB-1500.

This bomb is typical of Russian military pragmatism. Russia had lots of old Soviet bombs of different sizes. Dumb bombs. up 9000 kg!

So, why not make them Smart? Add wings. And a simple, if not rudimentary guidance and targeting systems.

The Russians have to be careful with these bombs to avoid the kind of indiscriminate destruction for which the Americans are famous. There is a moral issue— but it’s also pragmatic.

Right now, the Russians are focused, on towns and villages that are also railway and road hubs— infrastructure that they need – intact.

For the Ukrainians to use a web of villages as fortresses and bases, they need to be able to supply them.

The viability of what I call the Maginot Grid therefore lies in logistics.

Which are important to the Russians too since if they control those connecting railways and roads they can use them for the rapid transport of all kinds of men and materiel.

For example, the value of Bakhmut increases immensely if the Russians can control the railway hub at Chasov Yar and and similar infrastructure in nearby towns.

So, they need to be a wee bit careful with those big bombs.

In a few months I would expect the Russians to expand their zone of control northwards in both the West and the East. With full control of the road and railway network they will be in a better position to mount operations into Western Ukraine.

But will they?

Are the Nazis hiding troops ?

John Helmer has a source who thinks Ukrainians are keeping their best troops and substantial reserves in Western Ukraine to fight off the Russians there. They are undoubtedly trying to maintain reserves but, at the same time, they must expend some of them in the Donbas, along with valuable equipment – tanks and air defense systems and the like.

Donbas was their Maginot. Which is why Russia put the fear of God into the Ukrainians when it laid siege to Kiev in 2022 – even without the forces to actually take the city. They showed they could bypass Kiev’s primary defense line.

When France’s Maginot defense fell, the rest of the country fell too. It was partly a matter of perception.

I suspect the same thing will happen with Ukraine. The Russians don't want to invade Western Ukraine; they want Ukrainians to surrender – unconditionally – as the Japanese did in 1945— during the worst. Again, a matter of perception.

The Russians have made a point of neutralizing Ukrainian air defense systems all over the Ukraine. At some point— although not yet – they will be able to use heavy bombers, with FAB bombs of all kinds, including ones bigger than FAB 1500s –as well as their missile systems. Even if the Ukrainians have forces in reserves, they will be vulnerable.

But I suspect the forces in place are hardline Nazis who keep the locals in line. I doubt they have the cojones to stand and fight if the Russians were to mount a full theater attack aiming at a knockout blow. Far better, to do what Ukrainian Nazis did in 1945 and move to Canada.

Don't expect the Russians to end the war anytime soon though. That would take the pressure off NATO, Europe, and the US —and Russia needs to keep the pressure on until the Empire to destroy itself and the world frees itself from its claws.

Buy me a coffee

If you liked this article and want to support my work, please buy me a coffee here or by clicking on the picture below. I make a policy of replying to every person who buys me a coffee with an individualized thank you note and I email special articles— although these can sometimes take time.

As you can see from this post, one special article can also become two!

Notes from the Zoo

If different species of animals can be friends, why can't different nationalities?

At the zoo, we had a lot of raccoons. Some were big and old and cantankerous. We had four very young raccoons who are just mean – like to bite.

On the other hand, there was” Honey” a young female, a couple of months old, who liked to ride around on my neck and clean my ears. She was very sweet – but unfortunately not housetrained – or maybe “neck trained” – since she often peed down my back. But it was the zoo —I was used to that kind of stuff. There was a certain baby seagull – but that's another story!

I wouldn't recommend raccoons as pets. They are wild animals and they need a natural environment. And you have to keep them away from alcohol. Like bears they are terrible drunks.

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