The Slow War

Into Western Ukraine

Russian forces are advancing in the Donbas at a leisurely pace, taking advantage of the weakness of the UAF, whose forces are dispersed in too many places, poorly trained and ill-equipped.

Recent Russian advances in drones mean that their battlefield combat drones, which used to have a range of just a couple of kilometers can be launched from at least 15 kilometers away – in some case even farther, with plenty of loitering time.

When Ukrainian soldiers were asked about the turning point in Russia’s new drone campaign, they all pointed to one name: Rubicon, Russia’s elite drone unit. The group made its presence known this year in the Kursk region, and in the spring it moved to the Kostiantynivka area, employing the same tactics of systematically hitting roads, vehicles, and antennas. ‘They used to be able to hit targets within a 2- to 3-km radius; now they strike every 10 to 20 minutes within a 15-km radius. ‘Everything within this 15-km zone is destroyed,’ explains Alexander, commander of the drone unit of Ukraine’s 93rd brigade

Russian losses are much lower as a result while Ukrainian casualties are high.

Russian forces may be taking their sweet time – but they are moving strategically. The key towns of Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka risk encirclement, and complete isolation from the UAF’s main forces.

NYT: Russia Could Break Ukrainian Lines in Donbass, Move Closer to Full Control of Donetsk Region

The New York Times reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a critical situation near Konstantinovka. The town is described as the southern gateway to a chain of settlements forming Ukraine’s last major defensive belt in the Donetsk region.

If Konstantinovka falls, the remaining Ukrainian positions to the north would be exposed to continuous strikes from Russian drones. According to the article, this development would bring Moscow significantly closer to its goal of liberating the entire Donbass

Ukraine it seems has lost the NYT. An omen?

Konstantinovka is semi-encircled with tis main supply lines under observation and fire control, particularly the routes to Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk.

Pokrovsk is a little better for the UAF, but it is only a matter of time.

Russian units have launched an assault on Novoekonomicheskoe on the outskirts of Myrnograd, which is a strategic position for future offensive operations.

Without new supply lines and reserves along with new defensive positions in the rear, UAF forces in the Donbas have few choices. Really, only two – withdraw fast – or die.

But they won’t have to make these choices right away. As events show the Russians are in no hurry— since the longer it takes, the stronger their forces.

Ukrainian forces are are now retreating locally but at some point soon you will see an attempt at a coordinated withdrawal from most of the Donetsk People’s Republic, including Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk and nearby areas in Kharkiv,

The UAF is already constructing new defensive lines 20–25 kilometers west of these cities, avoiding any major urban centers, which indicates that Syrsky knows he cannot defend them.

The Ukrainians are losing too many men in urban combat. They need to preserve mobility, anticipating having to withdraw further west.

Losing Donbass means losing politically. They will have lost every major city and the entire defensive grid built up over a decade. In effect, they will have lost the war they started in 2014 and are now facing the consequences of aggression.

Losing Kramatorsk and Provosk also endangers supply lines to Zaporozhye , Kherson,and the Black Sea coast. Odessa will go with a whimper, not a bang.

In addition, the Russians can extend operations to places like Pavlohrad, Dnipro, and Poltava. A true buffer zone must include Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Chernihiv.

As it stands, Ukraine is no longer in control of the Donbas. And its control of the occupied oblasts east of the Dnieper and in the South is threatened.

Once the Russians have consolidated their gains, the next battlefield is Ukraine West of the Dnieper—the Ukraine “Heartland”.

Will Ukraine negotiate?

That time has passed. All indications are that the Azovs and other extremists – contrary to Western talk about them being “depoliticized”—are extending their control of the government, military and institutions, fearful that negotiations would end up with them in Siberian prisons for the rest of their lives.

They will fight on, relying on the West’s record of rescuing Nazis and other criminal extremists. In fact, you can be sure that they have been promised help.

After all, Trump has just legitimatized Al Nusra and a genuine head chopper— Jolani, His band of murderers and rapists, has been given a pass.

You can expect the SMO to continue longer, weakening Europe and the US at the same time.

By the Fall, the NYT says Russian drone and missile production will have expanded to the point where the RF will be able to launch 1000 drones at a time, many of them of a new advanced type that is harder to intercept and has a more effective warhead. The Russians haven’t said —but this is tacit admission that the Ukraine is a lost cause.

But don’t expect it all to be over by the Fall.

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