The State of the Onion (Corrected)

Feb 24 Corrected

I have always thought that the American Union is more of an Onion. It has layers, it makes you cry, and nobody wants to get close to you. In any case, the State of the Onion address is coming soon and I for one am eager to see what Trump has to say. Or maybe what he avoids saying. I am sure Saturday Night Live is eager too.

I am not one of those who think that the US will go to war just because the US has assembled a moderately capable strike force. Notice that I said “moderately” capable. Because it is not enough.

Yes, TWO aircraft carriers – just like with the Houthis. And Washington has beefed up the USAF in the region, from its usual token presence — “token” considering the size of the region.

The US had about 60 to 100 aircraft on station, not counting about 300 Israeli aircraft — compared to 217 in Europe which are backed up by 1800 NATO combat aircraft!

Now, with two carrier groups with a total of 170 on board, the number is 500. (see jpg.)

Now, you might say the US would not increase its assets to a level where it could attack if need be, but actually these assets are compromised by

a.) vulnerable bases

b.) use of carrier groups, which are also vulnerable.

Attacks en masse lead to casualties en masse—unless your side has overwhelming advantage as was the case in 2003.

Is this enough?

Do numbers lie?

Now this (above) is an LLM estimate, which defaults to the WESTERN point of view, so you can take its numbers with a grain of salt.

For example, the Israeli narrative is that they destroyed 50% of Iran’s launchers — which is highly doubtful since that should have been enough to let them venture into Iranian airspace which they did not do. In the first two days, they damaged some launchers with local terrorist and drone attacks, although no one really knows how many — and we have no idea how many were damaged after that.

LLMs will tell you that Iran has still not recovered from its “losses” in the 12 Day War”, assuming I suppose that they are as slow as American industry is in replenishing weapons. Estimates are all over the map.

As of February this year, estimates of ballistic missiles range from 1500 to 3000. But the same sources say 5000 by 2027! Which is 2000 in less than a year.

Before the 12 Day War Iran was said to have up to 3000 missiles, which were “reduced by half” by Israeli defenses. However, Iran was also said to have fired 500 ballistic missiles (mostly old stuff) and 1000 suicide drones. 500 is not half of 3000 . I think. As you know, I am really BAD at arithmetic.

The Israelis say they destroyed about 1000 ballistic missiles inside Iran but there appears to be no proof of that. And Iran says they destroyed only about 3% of its launchers.

You will get all these contradictions if you poke your LLM enough.

William Schryver writes;

Iran did NOT expend most of its BM inventory in the 12-Day War. They averaged ~30 ballistic missiles fired per day.

Iran reportedly produces 300 ballistic missiles per month, and its inventory is very likely >20k.

Putting all that aside, the number of air defense units available now should be considerably in excess of what the Iranians had before the 12 Day War — and naturally more upgraded and more effective. Iran now has an estimated 80,000 drones as well.

As for air defense units Iranian AD units are mobile, hard to track and hard to hit. The Israelis claim to have killed half of them. Also their radars.

Bavar AD

The question remains— why couldn’t the Israelis penetrate Iranian airspace?.

But all these incongruities suggest to me that this war, if it happens, will be very different from the 12 Day War:

• the US and Israel overhype their capabilities

• the US could lose a lot of aircraft if they tried to get within 400 km of their targets in Iran.

Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

Compare this projected war to Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

In 2003, the American coalition had over 1800 aircraft and over 200 ships including 5 carrier groups.

And Iran is a lot stronger than Iraq ever was.

It has a larger population and is less exposed geographically, with a larger area and lots of mountains to hide missile bases in.

Compare that to the much smaller Iraq…

Iraq (corrected thanks to comments)

Iran has solid support from Russia and China, which was not the case for Iraq.

Most important of all, Iran has a much more competent military with advanced technical abilities which are improving fast— rather than degrading as was the case with the Iraqi military, which was in no way a peer adversary for the US.

Let’s just say that US assets are not sufficient to ensure easy victory.

Scott Ritter, whom I wrote about yesterday, is just one of many who seems to think the US will attack and prevail. Why? Because it has been preparing for conventional global war since WWII.

Global war is world war?

There is no such things as “conventional” “global” war.

“Global war” is “World War” and that means nukes. The US has the second most powerful nuclear military, inferior to the Russians in the number of warheads and also delivery systems, and lacking innovative weapons like Oreshnik, Burevestnik or Poseidon. It lacks hypersonic capabilities or defensive capabilities such as the S500.

The US could not possibly face Russia and China together.

Remember 1939. France and the UK had a numerical advantage over Germany. They were overconfident and they paid for it. In addition, their militaries were envisioning something like WWI. The Germans were innovating a new kind of war, with new weapons and tactics.

I do not think the US will go to war with Iran. Trump is not doing well politically in the US and, as Larry Johnson points out….

JCS Chairman Caine and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of CENTCOM, have warned the President that there is a high likelihood that there would be US casualties when the US attacks.

I agree. A war with Iran would be the end of his career, if only for demonstrating the lie of America as No.1 militarily and humiliating the nation even further than he has already done.

So, Trump will stretch out the talks. He has postponed military action 10 days. After ten days, he will say, “We are making progress”. No doubt he will say something like that in his State of Union Address is coming up Feb 24. Not to worry, ‘we are talking”. At that time, it is far better to insist that he is focusing on negotiations, not war.

And finally: “The Iranians have promised not to get the Bomb! I have saved the world!” (Again!)

Of course, the Iranians have already said that the Bomb is “haram” –forbidden. So adding a “promise” on top is just a cherry on the cake.

That’s a good thing for the US ultimately because, without the religious injunction, Tehran could have nuclear weapons in a few months.

Iran is Shi’a . If the Americans won, the Shi’a would not disappear.

Religion would still matter. Yes, Iran is multi-ethnic. But up to 95% of the population is Shi’a. Ethnicities are represented in parliament but is religion that holds the state together. Despite American efforts to destabilize the government, it is the Supreme Leader who is is, yes, “Supreme”, which is why the population is rallying behind Khamenei now.

Khamenei is not in hiding by the way. He is not afraid to be a martyr.

PS

Thanks to comments I corrected yesterday’s post. Tomahawks can not be air-launched as Ritter seemed to be saying.

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