The Syrian Surprise

It seems that I wasn't the only one surprised by the rapid fall of Damascus. Even Alastair Crooke was. Larry Johnson too.

Certainly, on paper at least, Assad had the means to repel the Turkish attack as Alexander Mercouris explains in a recent podcast.

Mercouris also offers various explanations for the sudden turnaround. But nobody actually knows. As usual, he does a little too much mind-reading, of what he thinks is going in Putin’s head, Lavrov’s, Erdogan’s and, of course, Assad’s. We all do that, of course. I certainly do. And it always gets me in trouble.

The best assessment I have seen so far is from Alastair Crooke.

Crooke makes some important points.

Russia and Iran did not abandon Assad, as many are saying. In 2020, Russia offered to arm Syria and train its army. Assad refused. He was offered economic help by Russia and Iran. He refused. People have often asked why the Russians didn’t give the Syrians S400s. Guess why?

Assad continually distanced himself from Iran trying to cozy up to the Oil States.

And two months ago when Iran warned him war was coming he refused to listen.

The average SAA soldier was paid $4.00 a month - a General, $40.00 a month. HTS offered them $400 to surrender. Russia did what it could .

In any case, it was Assad to abandoned Russia and Iran - and ultimately Syria itself.

Who owns Syria?

Now, the Turks own the North. The Zionist own the South. The East belongs to the Americans. HTS owns the Center.

The Russian bases?

Some question whether the Russians need those bases anymore if they are not participating in the war in Syria. Those bases are really only useful to keep the Turks in line. But if the Russians take Odessa and Mykolaiv and control the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, as seems likely, they will have lots of leverage—with an added boost if Georgia is able to resist Maidan 2.0 —and is forced by Western sanctions to ally with Russia.

Could the new Syrian government take the Russian bases by force? Possibly but unlikely — they could try but those baess are protected by mountains in an otherwise flat country and the population is largely Alawite and not sympathetic to either the Turks or Al Nusra.

Anyway, Jolani has said the Russians can keep the bases. Which, I am sure they will. They may need them later, if Syria implodes — again. Also, just because a military base is on someone else’s territory doesn’t mean you have to leave. Think: Guantanamo.

All this adds up to a very complicated situation— with a lot of competing interests.

What could go wrong? The Law of Unintended Consequences once again. The only law the US follows.

Johnson writes:

The chaos that is likely to consume Syria over the coming two months will cause more harm and danger for Turkey and Israel than for Russia and Iran. Yes, the fall of Assad was a diplomatic blow for both Moscow and Tehran, but managing the emerging security risks presented by an HTS-led government? Those hot turds are now the problem of Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel. Russia and Iran can sit back and watch or, through intelligence assets, help stir the pot.

The Omni War

None of the current players in Syria — except maybe Russia and Iran were thinking ahead strategically. Maybe we should say none were thinking at all.

Pepe Escobar has written recently that Syria is part of the US Omni War to counter BRICS..

It will not be successful anymore than Roman campaigns were successful in preventing the decline of the Western Roman Empire in the last days -- instead hastening its collapse, creating chaos in what remained of its crumbling domain .

Chaos is what we can expect in Syria. Only the Russians and Iranians seem to be aware of what is coming. The Supreme Leader of Iran has an important address soon — and you can be sure it will address the future.

Cancel those holiday plans for Damascus, please.

The Turks are irrational. The Americans, too. And the Israelis —of course. Win the battle —lose the war.

Wild Cards

The entire deck of cards — all wild cards.

Or, if you like Tarot….Ten of Swords.

For example, whatever Joulani says, I and many others, including Crooke, doubt that HTS's cruel and violent ideology has changed . Or that HTS can be controlled. You’re going to get stabbed in the back multiple times.

That means violence between all the stakeholders in Syria—and more refugees-- many of whom will end up in Turkey.or in Europe to join an estimated 5 million this winter.

HTS, which the US considers a “terrorist organization” will take American money but it will never be friend or ally.

Add to that all those Uighurs, Chechens, Turkmen, Ukrainians and ISIS-K nasties who made up 30% of the Turkish sponsored invasion force — just looking for someone to kill— they are in Syria too.

Yup, Ten of Swords.

Today’s Syria is yesterday’s Libya and Iraq.

Chaos

Erdogan has made the classic mistake of would-be emperors, thinking he can control the uncontrollable.

Think of Afghanistan where the US supported the Taliban's takeover-- then changed their mind-- fought a war – and lost it. Now they are supporting the same people they lost that war to. Well, almost the same people. Al Qaeda has a complicated history.

Complicated or not - there IS a pattern — chaos!

People suffer, of course. But the American MICIMATT loves chaos – win or lose – because it makes money in either case. They even make money from the agony.

The only trouble now is that the US is declining economically--it has no industry anymore except MICIMATT.

So, it has extended the concept of military domination to the economic front – where it ‘weaponizes” sanctions. Again, the Law of Unintended Consequences — while sanctions can devastate a country in the short term-- as was the case with Syria – in the long term they can also accelerate national autonomy, progress and development as with China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and other countries —with BRICS providing workarounds.

Hence, Escobar’s Omni War -- what Alastair Crooke calls a “Long War-- and—what I call in my special articles —World War III – America's war on the world.

The Hegemon is desperate.

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desart.^[d] Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

— Percy Shelley, "Ozymandias", 1819 edition

Chappy and Ichi

Chappy is gradually getting used to his new home.

But Ichi is hiding. Cats often react to new situations by doing that. I know he is somewhere in the apartment. Usually he comes when I call him. But not today.

I am sure they will get along with Chappy— but the first couple of days they will both hunker down.

Maybe Wednesday, Ichi will recover. Last night, he approached the cage which is covered by sheets and sniffed - -then went back to the other room and hid. Cats are like people. They need time —and space— to process new situations.

In the meantime, you can buy us coffee HERE.