Trump: Bully Without a Pulpit

Trumps cease-fire deal today didn’t surprise me at all. Bone spurs y’know…

If you have been following my recent articles, you will notice that I posit that Trump is both irrational and also a coward and while he may convince themselves or allow others to convince him that he is unbeatable in certain situations he responds like any bully would when he finds himself outmatched. He backs way, trying desperately to change the story.

His hubris is as large as his ego – or his belly.

Somehow he thought that Iran would fold in four days. Where did these ideas come from? His own line of bullshit that the US media and his supporters permitted him to get away with.

When it soon became clear that the US could not win. he became desperate with attacks on civilian sites, piling up war crimes on top of war crimes in one of the worst displays of inhumanity in modern times - putting aside Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden of course.

In this case, however, Iran that held all the military cards.

Trump threatened to dominate the Strait of Hormuz with naval forces – but he couldn’t do that without massive casualties, resulting in almost certain defeat.

He threatened the ground invasion with a few thousand Marines and others. That would’ve ended the same way – with defeat in large numbers of casualties, which the US public would never be able to accept.

Then he threatened raids on Iranian nuclear sites to take their enriched uranium. That too was clearly hot air .

He was barely able to extract one F-15 WSO officer from Iran at the cost of aircraft, helicopters and God knows how many commandos. It was clear that Iran was growing stronger day by day, with new missiles and better ISR.

Reports suggest that Trump has been desperately looking for a way to negotiate himself out of the mess he created without losing too much face.

In the end that’s all he cares about – face. He doesn’t care about his country – just his TV ratings— which right now are abysmal— and his stock portfolio which has done very well.

So now he claims credit for a cease-fire of two weeks. It’s a victory he says.

Except it is not really a cease-fire of the kind you should expect, nor the victory he promised.

• Trump will stop attacks on Iran for 2 weeks

• Iran will not strike U.S. regional targets for 2 weeks

• Strait of Hormuz remains closed

• Iran will continue bombing Israel

• War continues in 2 weeks if Hormuz stays closed

• Iran & Oman will CHARGE TOLLS from all ships passing the Strait of Hormuz during the 2-week ceasefire cementing a a new legal framework for passage. Wait! Doesn’t that mean the strait is not actually closed? Oh well…semantics.

When was the last time a US involved ceasefire actually worked? Lebanon/ Israel? Nope. Israel / Gaza? Nope. The 2025 war with Iran? Nope. And what happened the last time Iran attempted to negotiate?

Some indication of this was that, after the announcement of the ceasefire, attacks continued and, while the Iranians agreed not to attack US bases, ships and aircraft, they continued to hit the infrastructure of the Gulf monarchies.

Within hours of the ceasefire announcement on April 8, the UAE reported intercepting incoming missiles and drones from Iran. Saudi Arabia also reported destroying nine drones during the same period. That issue remains in limbo. Iran will really only be safe if there are new governments in the oil states and Jordan—and no Israel,

Is Israel forever? It is an artificial state that never deserved to exist and has run out of time.

Right now, it is running low on interceptors against Iranian, Houthi and Hezbollah attacks and, out of desperation, attacking civilian sites in Lebanon, which weakens the Lebanese government and strengthens Hezbollah.

The week ceasefire will allow Iran for direct more resources to destroying Israel . Or so I hope.

But there is another thing not touched on in the media.

Following the “Tehran tollbooth” model in the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis have set up their own version — imposing “safe-transit fees” on cargo ships and threatening to attack those that do not comply. Hey! Don’t complain . It’s capitalism, which means capitalizing on advantage.

The Houthis have been demanding payments from shipping companies to allow safe passage through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, earning significant revenue from this practice in early 2026.

They use Automated Identification System (AIS) signals and intelligence to identify ships. Vessels perceived to be associated with “aggressor countries” (specifically the US, UK, and Israel) are targeted, while others may be allowed passage if they comply with Houthi demands.

As part of the 2026 Iran-related conflict, the Houthis have threatened to fully block the strait, which could force ships to divert around Africa, increasing global oil and shipping costs.

In coordination with Iranian efforts, the Houthis have control of a chokepoint handling roughly 12% of global trade. Hormuz accounts for 20%. So together? Yup, lotsa money,

The economic facts have yet to sink in in the West. When they do….Ouch,

So, what’s going to happen? . Here are the Iranian demands that the US has agreed to discuss.

1. Guaranteed Non-Aggression: A fundamental commitment from the U.S. and its allies to cease and prevent future military actions against Iran.

2. Control of the Strait of Hormuz: Continued Iranian oversight of the strait, including “regulated passage” and coordination of maritime traffic by Iranian armed forces.

3. Uranium Enrichment Rights: Official recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful nuclear purposes.

4. Removal of Primary Sanctions: The immediate lifting of all primary U.S. sanctions against Iran.

5. Removal of Secondary Sanctions: Termination of sanctions against foreign countries and companies that do business with Iran.

6. End of UN Resolutions: Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions targeting Iran’s programs.

7. End of IAEA Resolutions: Termination of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

8. Compensation for Damages: Payment of reparations or reconstruction funds to Iran for infrastructure damaged during the conflict. Reports indicate this may be funded through a new $2 million fee per ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. Forces: The full withdrawal of all U.S. combat troops and military presence from the Middle East region.

10. Regional Ceasefire: A comprehensive end to hostilities on all fronts, including Israel’s conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the war in Yemen.

Agreement with these demands would be a complete defeat for the US—an acknowledgement they are the Bad Guys . However, control of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are the most important ones and that appears to have been recognized already.

Western analysts fear Joint control of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab by Iran and the Houthis could trigger a severe energy crisis, with oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel. This coordinated disruption of 20%+ of global oil supplies would cause massive shipping delays, massive insurance premium surges, and likely plunge the global economy into recession. (AI)

Such fears are certainly overstated.

Global oil supplies would not necessarily be “disrupted’ — nor would there necessarily be “massive” shipping delays . Nor would that alone plunge the global economy into recession. Just Western economies would end up paying for Iran and Yemen’s reconstruction. It’s the cost of illegal war.

A kind of tariff.

Trump loves tariffs, right?

What will the Donald do next? My guess is blame someone. Maybe fire Hegseth or Gabbard

Below: The first part of today’s post for Supporters.

Slow and steady wins the race

In the West, we think wars should be over quickly. But ‘fast’ is not always good. It took Iran 20 years to prepare for its current (successful) war.

The piece begins detailing changes on the battleground as of April 8, then goes on to what all this means. Spring is in the wind. And change also,

Russian MOD as of 8 April 2026

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Another feral male ginger cat story, Chappy also hated being touched when he was first brought in — but after that spent a lot of time with kittens! And started to like touching. They all loved him. And he loved them. He is very cat-centric. So maybe he thinks I am a cat. Now, he demands a lot of cuddling.