Trump delays
Last Post
It appears last night's post was correct— more or less.
"More or less" is pretty much the best that any analyst can do! I apologize for my ironic tone— I did not mean to make light of the threats we all face—but ironies are piled on top of ironies. Still, it may have bothered some people.
You might ask why I have a right to pontificate about matters like WWIII—me, a guy who listens mostly to his cats and is still learning to tie his shoelaces.
One reason might be I have made almost every mistake known to man so I am sensitive to human foibles. Another is my cats are really, really smart.
A little background
Background helps —sorta but not as much as one thinks
As I may have mentioned, in my 30 year career I worked as an analyst and consultant for many kinds of people here in Japan – from the prime minister's office to the Foreign Ministry to the Self-Defense Forces to military industrial companies. Policy in Japan is generally by consensus— and my role was often to provide independent analysis and feedback. Since, of course, I never worked 9 to 5— I had time to study and research as I wanted, which meant gaining a lot of knowledge and experience that most people could not find time to acquire.
Of course, I had contacts in the American Embassy and met with British and American defense people— not to mention CIA people, who, by the say, are just people. Amazing what people say when they are drunk.
The Gaijiin
So I have a “point of view”. Not really much more that that. Because a lot of my experience is simply not transferrable. “Lost in translation” indeed
That said, I had the advantage of not being beholden to anyone – I was solicited for an honest opinion, even a contrarian one. I was a Gaijin’s Gaijin. The consummate outsider on the inside.
Guess you watched Shogun, so you know the role.
I had to deliver.
Each situation, each job, was different with its own focus— and I had study and learn to deduce patterns to do analysis.
It is all about patterns. If you can follow them and elucidate them, you can be right sometimes without understanding what exactly is going on. I certainly don’t know what goes on at the highest levels of government in the United States or other countries, except for Canada, where the highest level of government is the lowest level of competence.
But how much does ”background” matter I wonder?
Brian Berletic’s analyses and predictions of Trump 2.0 have been right on.
But he was a Marine Corps opto electronic mechanic and later industrial designer specializing in community and healthcare work.
He is a far better analyst than I am.
Who knows?
Of course, nobody knows what really goes on at the highest levels of government in the United States, including it seems the President – which is why people, including the Donald himself, are always talking about the “Deep State” without being able to quite define what it is and how it works.
Alastair Crooke guesses that Trump is not being properly vetted by intelligence agencies and not properly conducting intelligence findings. Others with some background in this area think he is now listening just to a small circle— excluding Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard. We don't know.
So what is it that we do know?
No war — just yet
We know that Trump has now officially said that the US will not make a decision about entering the war between Israel and Iran for at least two weeks. This corresponds to what I said last night-- that the US is not capable of mounting a force for attack on Iran for at least 2 to 3 weeks. In other words, Donald…duuh.
In the meantime, the Russians have made strong statements supporting Iran .
The Chinese have moved military vessels close to Iran with surveillance and EW capabilities, which would be vital in the case of the US attack.
International Support
Russia has said it offered Iran a mutual defense pact – which Iran rejected to avoid offending the Americans. Contrary to what everyone thought, including me and Larry Johnson and others, the Russians did not give the Iranians S 400's – the Iranians claim that their indigenous systems were just as good, according to Putin, possibly because of Russian and Chinese involvement in their development.
The new Iranian AD systems and the radars are under-rated — they used to be equivalent to S 300's but are now equivalent to S400's.
There is of course a huge advantage to using indigenously produced hybrid equipment since it is harder to cut off supply if you have an efficient industrial base.
Iranian technological development cannot be understated.
For example it is now clear that the newest Iranian missiles are fitted with EW suites that are able to disorient Israeli interceptor missiles which end up hitting the ground below and doing considerable damage-- a sort of double whammy. That is extremely sophisticated technology.
The Russians and Chinese
The Russians are de facto guaranteeing the survival of the Iranian state – and the Chinese are quietly but effectively backing them up. As I said yesterday, the Russians and Chinese are not going in detail about what they are doing behind the scenes.
In two or three weeks, the US may be ready to make war – but at that point Israel would be smart to make peace, with a lot of its infrastructure and military capabilities destroyed. It and the US have nuclear weapons-- but so do the Russians and Chinese. Using nukes is somewhere that the US would be mad to permit Israel to go.
My guess is that after two or three weeks, the Israelis will want to talk and Trump will revert to his role as the Peacemaker.
But to make peace, he will need both Putin and Xi Jinping. They are trusted by all parties in the Middle East, unlike the US.
Then again, I could be wrong, my crystal ball is cloudy and kinda hard to figure out. And as Putin famously said of Trump - he’s unpredictable.
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My instinct tells me Trump will back down. He's looking for a way out. If it DOES escalate then 'the west' will lose but it will mean a lot of blood and a longish conflict. The opposition to the US Empire has discovered that the US doesn't do long wars and if you survive, you win. But that's just my instinct. I read widely but no-one anywhere has the full picture - and that's why you have to have a feel for 'patterns'.
Historically, like fallen empires of the past, USA is at its end of life. The reason is the the perineal historic fav - loss of religious morality.
See my reply to this comment. Trump despite his no war campaign promise, has been turned 180 to warmongering by "dark faced men in suits" aka deep state.
The same deep state oppresses the citizens and residents by destroying family bonds (see reply comments), the most primal and devastating assault. The citizens are enslaved and demoralized. Therefore, we the people simply won't rebel regardless of how ridiculous and embarrassing the international shenanigans become.
The trade war and the debt bubble are ripe for implosion if another war is started.
The global order is in for a upheaval in the coming end times tribulation/prophecy. In fact, this is the only real solution to this dystopian morbid culture/society.