Wrong, wrong, wrong?
So I was wrong again – sorta.
Like almost everybody else I had assumed that the US would not enter the war with Iran for at least two weeks. Mostly because Trump said he wouldn't, although there was chatter in the intelligence community tha ta strike was being prepared for weekend, which is what happened.
Why did I believe Trump even when I know he lies about almost everything, not being able to distinguish between truth and falsehood?
Because when a president says he won't do something and then immediately does do it – he is demonstrating to the world that he and his country cannot be trusted.
Promises are meaningless in the case of the US. Agreements are meaningless. This is a rogue state and it has in one fell swoop destroyed the last shreds of credibility that it had.
Who could be this stupid?
Only Trump. The “Great Negotiator” cannot negotiate – anything!
Who could let him be that stupid?
America.
Act of war or desperation?
Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace.
If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. For 40 years, Iran has been saying, “Death to America, death to Israel”.
They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs – that was their speciality.We lost over a thousand people, and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate, in particular, so many were killed by their general, Qassem Soleimani. Donald Trump addressing the nation after the strike.
A tad exaggerated”
But were the strikes a “spectacular military success”?
Not that much damage was done. Which says something about American military capabilities.
Larry Johnson has opined that the strike was very similar to the US strike on Syria some years ago when it launched Tomahawk missiles at Syria with the excuse the Syrians had been using chemical weapons – a claim that has long since been debunked 100% . The missiles were mostly shot down and didn’t do that much damage.
In the end, the US had to buy off the entire Syrian military leadership to get what they wanted – a broken country. Syria is no more. But it took years and years and also the help of Turkey and Islamic terrorists.
Can the US buy off Iran?
No. The Shiite clergy don’t care about money.
Can the US or Israel kill the Supreme Leader?
Sure, —if they want a religious war across the Middle East where Shiite Islam dominates.
The ME conundrum
In the ME, ethnicity and religion matter more than statehood.
Almost all the countries in the Middle East, were unilaterally created at the end of World War I by the Western powers in various “mandates”. These less countries than colonies.
These new states mixed together various tribal ethnic and religious cultures, which probably deserved their own independent governance.
In any case. Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and the oil states including the KSA, are all artificial national states originally created for the convenience of their colonial masters and their ruling elites.
The legacy endures. Take Qatar. Expatriates make up over 80% of the population! When they leave the economy suffers—and now many want to leave.
For thousands of years, however Iran, however, was the outlier in south central Asia.
A new era for a new world
It is still the outlier — but things are changing fast. And, sometimes outliers become leaders.
The imperial actions of Turkey, Israel, and the US have suddenly changed the political calculus of the Middle East –and of the “Heartland”— hence, of the entire world.
Israel re-drew the Syrian map. Now, other countries are following suit, re-imagining Sykes Picot. .
In Shiite Iraq, there is suddenly talk about taking Kuwait, which is really a runaway province of Iraq.
Will the KSA absorb a couple of the Oil States? Why not?
In Houthi Yemen there is chatter about taking chunks of Saudi Arabia.
The Kurds in Syria want their own country, as do the Iraqi Kurds in Iraq.
Israeli expansionism has weakened the inherently unstable, erratic and disorganized new Jihadist government in Syria opening up the possibilities of separatist movements.
Lebanon? Hezbollah’s power here has increased not diminished— despite what the MSM say about Israel’s “victory” against the group. Remember was Israel losing in Southern Lebanon that wanted a ceasefire, so it could redirect its efforts against Syria.
In the West Bank, the Palestine Authority has disgraced itself and the only option for West Bank Palestinians s is the movement that generated Hamas.
I could go on and on. Suffice to say, the Center will not hold.
Iran, a huge country, has proven that an Islamic country can defeat a US proxy, Israel, just as Yemen proved that a tiny country with almost nothing but a passionate cause can defeat the enormous power of the US.
Ironies abound.
Trump’s attack on Iran was stupid. Dick-waving.
It was meant to be a demonstration of power. Instead it showed how flaccid America is, how impotent.
The Americans are said to have launched Tomahawk missiles from submarines, probably intending to occupy Iranian air defenses, presumably backed up by Israeli drone strikes, since the Israelis helped fashion the plan, while B2s dropped bunker busters, which were --as I said they would be in previous posts – ineffective, at least from satellite imagery and radiation monitoring.
As I said, the little real damage was done to the targeted sites, It seems that the Iranians had anticipated these strikes and where they would hit.
Iran’s fighters did not fly, and it appears that Iran’s surface-to-air missile systems did not see us throughout the mission. We retained the element of surprise.
It was, however, as if the Iranians wanted to demonstrate that ineffectiveness of American weapons— the “Bunker Busters’— allowing them to bomb! We know that their radars can “paint” F35 stealth aircraft. There could surely detect B2s taking off from Qatar.
Nobody knows, of course.
The three Russian nuclear plants were not attacked Russia has said that attacks on them would be regarded as attacks on Russia. They are off bounds. So what was the purpose this attack? Like I said — dick waving. Not “the Donald” — it’s ‘the Dick”.
Now, the Iranians are in a much stronger position than before.
Military retaliation and escalation
1. They can assemble a few nukes. Should take two weeks if they try. But that would require the Supreme Leader to change policy, which he is loathe to do. Even when the Iraqis used chemical weapons during the war with Iran, Iran refused to respond in kind. Islam forbids WMD>
2. Iran can strike US bases throughout the Middle East. That could be bases in Qatar, which is close or Saudi Arabia. Al Udeid, from which the B2s reported took off, is one. Then there is Jordan, which is politically less problematic than Saudi Arabia. Tehran could also strike US bases in Iraqi Kurdistan or in Syria.
3. The Houthis have said their “deal” with the US is off. US naval assets are now fair game. Will Iran arm them with better weapons?
4. Properly armed, Hezbollah can threaten US naval assets in the Mediterranean.
5. Then there are those US bases in Iraq, which the Iraqis want gone, gone, gone.
Deals?
1. Of course, Iran may try to do a “deal” with the dealer. Doesn’t work. Because a satisfactory deal would be return the West Bank and Gaza to a Palestinian autonomy, with Israel surrendering its ill-gotten gains in Syria – and also denuclearizing in return for Iranian guarantees not to build nuclear weapons.
2. What’s the chance of that? NO chance! The US is crooked - it deals with marked cards.
Russia
Iran can sign the mutual defense treaty Russia offered – belatedly,,.,.
and get Russia to “mediate”
but do they really need to?
Economic warfare
1. Closing the Strait of Hormuz. Goodbye US economy.
2. US can try to interfere but it must put its naval assets within range of Iranian defenses to do so.
Trump trumps himself
A can of worms, no. A bucket of vipers, yes.
The attack was manifestly as much of a failure as the initial Israeli attack.
While the US doesn’t seem to have lost any of its hugely expensive B2s, the more it tries to use them, the more likely it will lose at least one. It only has a few and they cost about $2 billion each. With oil prices likely to soar, the US economy cannot afford that. The easiest way to kill one would be with missiles when it is on the tarmac.
Trumps’ deceptive tactics will also make it harder to negotiate anything with the Russians or the Chinese—or anyone else.
And resistance to Trump is growing in the US, not so much from the Democrats-- except for AOC who opportunistically got a public boost by advocating impeachment – but from the MAGA crowd themselves, who feel betrayed.
They now feel that Trump doesn’t care about “making America great” . He cares only about Trump.
Trump’s days are numbered. He has his base. He has lost the Right. And the Left want blood.
Iran is taking steps to close the Hormuz Strait as promised
BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz Officially Closed by Iran After US Bombs 3 Critical Nuclear Sites | Reports
It has also increased the intensity of strikes on Israel. It is taking the gloves off.
Trump’s days are numbered. He has lost his base. He has lost the Right. And the Left want blood.
Still…
…remember: only morons elect morons to office.
You can only brainwash the brain-dead.
The US has a way of doubling down on stupid.
Click HERE….or click icon to link!,
We, (USSA) will reap the whirlwind for all the evil deeds we have done. The stupidity of the average murican, is truly mind boggling. It's far easier for the average murican, to just watch their ever present television, than to put out a little effort to research and educate themselves on the reality of the present situation.
They are propagandized into thinking that Russia, China and Iran are evil and that murica is a force for good, when the exact opposite is the reality.
Only a complete collapse will fix murica, and it will take several decades and is very questionable if even that will work.
I see lots of blood in the future.
{Because when a president says he won't do something and then immediately does do it – he is demonstrating to the world that he and his country cannot be trusted.}
Bill Clinton ripped the barn door off the hinges when he lied in front of the entire world on National TV. From there on in it just became status quo. Must we forget Saddam Hussein and the WMD? You would have to be a fool to put an ounce of credence in anything that is said by anyone. No disrespect intended.