Ukraine: Winter Forecast
In my last article, I argued that the so-called Russian “defeat” in Karkhov was just media propaganda, the kind that all countries resort to in order to shore up their otherwise shaky political situations at home when they are losing wars. Ukraine really lost the war in the first few weeks. The US lost its wider war when it imposed sanctions years ago. As the song goes, it’s a long way down.
Winter is coming. Now the media say that the Russian Offensive will bog down in the snow, and the Ukrainians will decimate them with Excalibur guided munitions. Oh, yes, and the US may give Kiev F16s and Patriot missiles?
Yes, and I believe in Santa Claus too.
Are you “inauthentic”
Brian Berletic doesn’t believe in Santa either.
Berletic, who, as I have done, has gone by various pseudonyms, such as “Tony Cartalucci” and is officially designated a “conspiracist”.
Eliot Higgens, the former operator of the notorious CIA/ NED funded Bellingcat disinformation site, tweeted this:
Accounts associated with New Eastern Outlook, Tony Cartalucci, and the Land Destroyer Blog have been suspended from Facebook and Twitter after reportedly being linked to a network of fake accounts and “coordinated inauthentic behavior.
Aaaaaaaaaaaah… “inauthentic” behavior!
Sounds vaguely like “inappropriate” behavior. Something naughty.
Nope. You don’t have to look for a new category on Pornhub.
“Inauthentic’ means “contrarian”, connecting the dots contrary to just accepting what you are told. In “Cartalucci’s” case it was linking the Thai student protests with the NED, although, given the NED’s involvement in almost every “color revolution’ for the last 20 years, that was something of a no-brainer. It’s a bit like remarking on a girl’s black T-back showing through her white yoga pants.
In the case of the Ukraine, Berletic has done a lot of solid research.
His recent YouTube video makes a number of excellent points. The Russians have a lot of experience fighting winter wars. Berletic cites Chechyna where the RF made substantial gains during the winter, which proves to be an ally enhancing aerial warfare.
In winter, the trees lose their leaves, exposing troops and equipment to aerial reconnaissance. The Russian’s new Iranian-supplied loitering drones are excellent for this.
The Russians have their own version of Excalibur — Krasnopol — — which, since it uses laser guidance, is not vulnerable to jamming as is the case with its American counterpart. The drones just designate a target and a battery 20 kilometers fires a precision guided munition. Bang!
Excalibur won’t help the Ukrainians much, even if the Russians couldn’t jam its GPS frequencies, which is unlikely. If the Ukrainians have those frequencies the Russians will too!
Suddenly, the UAF is going to be very, very exposed. No leafy canopy to blind the drones.
NOT this!
But this:
The Americans in Vietnam used Agent Orange— and that for an enemy without artillery or amour. The Russians have Nature on their side.
In addition, the Ukrainians have been attacking civilian targets, not only in the DPR and LPR — but in Russia.
The Donbass and Lugansk will likely vote to join the RF in the Fall, if only as a measure of protection against Zelensky’s not-so-golden horde. Then, attacks on them will become attacks on Russia and the SMO can be automatically updated to “counter terrorism” if not actual “war” without violating Russian laws.
At the same time, the Russians have already started knocking out chunks of the Ukrainian power grid, signaling it could be a very cold winter. See, the Western media says, “the Russians are losing”. What a funny way of showing your weakness.
Ordinary Germans and others in the EU are going to freeze, if not go on unintended diets, with the German government expropriating Russian energy companies and inviting blow-back.
As I wrote in my last article, this kind of national harakiri is something that failing societies often do, locked into a self-destructive cycle by delusional psychology and their own propaganda.
F16’s? It takes time to train pilots. Patriot missiles? Not effective for cruise missiles or drones as the Houthis demonstrated in their attacks on the KSA.
The Russians can afford to go slow.
“Knock yourself out” they say to the Empire. And the Empire is doing exactly that! Now barely conscious from punching themselves in the head too often. It helps to not have any brains left to damage.
The Ukraine is a quagmire. But not for Russia. It’s the West’s, as all of their wars since 1945 have been.
The Tipping Point. It’s not “If”. It’s “WHEN”
In the case of the US, the November elections will have the Republicans in control of at least the House, given the indications. The Democrats are the incumbents and overall they have proven themselves no better than Trump — in some areas better, of course — -but in others much worse. Biden is widely seen as a failed leader. Trump 2.0. Is there a Trump 3.0 in the wings?
Pelosi in the House? . The White House and the House of Representatives are now Care Homes for doddering, dithering politicians. Who changes their nappies?
Pundits have been predicting major comeuppance for the US economy now for years now. It hasn’t happened. But it is geriatric, too.
The dollar is being buoyed up against the currencies of its vassal states, with European and Japanese capital flowing into the US. That, however, could easily reverse itself, with inflation, lower consumer spending, and decay of the middle class, not to mention the collapse of the industrial base and infrastructure.
Not this Fall probably. But January?
Nobody knows. Dedollarization is ongoing and, at some point, it reaches critical mass.
In any case, political discontent is rising across Europe and in the US. And when the tipping point is reached it will be sudden.
Fall and Winter are going to be good for Russia — very bad for the “West” and worse for that fictive country that we call “Ukraine”.
Once it was a brainfart of Stalin; now it is a figment of the West’s imagination.
Julian Macfarlane. I am a journalist and media analyst. I make no money from these articles, but I need your support to keep going. Please subscribe, share, comment and spread the word. These articles are in the public interest. You may copy, quote or reprint in any form. I need your help as others on Substack do. Let’s all help each other. Then we might survive.
Fixed some of the typos. I'm dyslexic, so if you notice some let me know!
Interesting article. Might be a bit overly cheeky or confident, but it is a breath of fresh air to read a thoughtful article. (One that doesn;t just spew out what the white house gives the media to report.)
I lost complete faith in the mainstream media after following closely what was happening in Iraq. When I made several visits to Iraq to get first hand experience...what shocked me was how the reality on the ground did not match what I was reading back home in my newspapers.
I sat and had tea with one of the top BBC newsmen in Baghdad at the time and I was told that there was no point in sending something different to London as they would just trash it and it would not see the light of day.
Anyway. I thank you for what you are doing. A counter view to the mainstream is needed and that is the value of what you have achieved.