Vengeance is mine...
Like many of you, I read the Duran religiously. Alex Mercouris is one of the most intelligent analysts out there and something of an authority on events in the Ukraine. Alex Christoforou is also insightful – and funny as well. They are a great team.
But recently I have been a little disappointed by Mercouris in his comments which seem guided too much by opinion in the Western media –the FT, the Economist, the Times, the New York Times, and all the rest.
For the most part, his reporting on Russian and Ukrainian military matters is more balanced since he has to rely on sources in Russia and on Telegram—which provide a different perspective.
Keep in mind that all of these people are smarter than I am and better informed about Western opinions –as they are expressed in the media at least. I find it excruciating to try to wade through articles in the Economist or the NYT geopolitics and much prefer to have these guys do it for me.
That said, “smart” is one thing; “informed” depends on who “informs” you and your willingness to look for alternative points of view—what in science is called “falsifiability”
Bias
In this discussion on the Duran, Western bias shines through all the way. All three people keep on using “we” –where “we” means “the West”. That’s a giveaway. “Us” opposed to “them”— not “us” and “them”.
I do not use the pronoun “we” in this way— I was born a genetic “outsider”--always on the outside, looking in. I left the “West” a long time ago, choosing to be a “gaijin” in Japan, an Official Outsider – “belonging” through “not belonging”! No belongin’ — no longin’.
In the case of Mercouris, we can see his acceptance of mainstream political tropes early on around 30.40 (or so) in the video in his pronouncements about China – for example, that China could not win a naval war with the US –which has, he says, the world’s most powerful navy.
Well …used to have…..
Also, that Chinese should compromise in the West giving into their demands to limit their push for economic and technological autonomy. Presumably because of the over-reaching power of the West.
Sense and Nonsense
This is nonsense.
The US navy is optimized for the kind of war it fought against Japan in WWII. An aggressive, extraterritorial war thousands of miles from home waters.
The Chinese fleet is optimized for defensive war in home waters and have a technological edge.
In almost every US military simulation, the Chinese win –although not without losses, which they can replace thanks to their solid industrial base; the Americans lose catastrophically without the industrial base to recover.
As for economic compromises, the Chinese have tried that before, with no good results. Now they have BRICS, the Global South, the rest of the world. They need the West less and less.
And… China leads the world in 90% of tech research.
Mercouris repeating Western media myths and tropes about China—without being really challenged —immediately alerted to me to the bias in this discussion, if not a kind of new podcast etiquette, which rules out real disagreement.
Onto War
The discussion quickly moved to the “war” – by which all three talking heads meant Russia’s SMO in Ukraine, which the Russians explicitly deny is a “war” for good reason-- namely it isn’t a war as the West understands “war” —wholesale slaughter without rules.
The assumption of the Duran panel is rather like Ritter’s talk with Nima recently – namely the idea that the Russians really, really want this conflict over.
Wrong, They are not tired. They are just beginning.
They thought it was over– in 2022.
But the West – NATO and the US— demonstrated they weren’t going to allow compromise or agreement. There would be no “end” unless it was the end of Russia.
The SMO continued but the West had in effect had declared war on Russia-- an economic and proxy war-- but war nonetheless. So— Ukraine has lost a million men.
Now, Russia is winning – not only militarily but economically. The longer the SMO continues, the more it wins. Which is why the West is so desperate to finish it.
So Mercouris, Mearsheimer and Diesen talk a lot of about compromise and discussion, as though this was a corporate dispute. Mercouris implies that the Russians want to be free of sanctions. Actually — they no longer care.
Sanctions have made it stronger as the West gets weaker.
Why should Russia compromise?
Why get involved in deals with the West at all?
The West is downstream of an economic dam which is weakening as water rises behind.Best to stay out of the flood when the dam collapses .
Russia will take all of southern and south-western Ukraine, all the areas that voted for Yanukovych before Maiden. That includes the Black Sea coast. It will occupy Kharkov and Sumy, surround Kiev and set up a presence on the West bank of the Dniepr with the Banderites fleeing to the Polish border.
They will hold referendums – then elections.
By that time, the Russian economy will have grown even stronger. All it will need to reconstitute Ukraine is the kind of capital that the Chinese and BRICs countries will be eager to offer. .
As I pointed out recently , the Ukraine in the East and South has $13 trillion in resources. And it will be debt-free because it need not honor the debts incurred by the previous illegitimate government.
The Russians don’t need Western help. They don’t want it. They know the West wants Ukrainian resources — and that it wants return on its investment to date.
“Winning the Peace”, as Mercouris calls it, borrowing from Robert C Orr’s book. is an oxymoron on the one hand, disingenuous on the other, the underlying message that being American means never having to say you’re sorry.
For the Russians there is no “peace” to “win” — the Russians must win the war — not against Ukraine, of course — but against the West. That goes on until the West changes course— which is unlikely soon.
There can also be no forgiveness — not as long as the West labors under the supremacist delusion that it can dictate to the rest of the world.
If, for the Israelis, Zion is Palestine, given them by Yahweh, then for the US, the entire world is Zion, given them by the Almighty Dollar.
When will that change?
Most important of all—and left out of this discussion between Mercouris, Mearsheimer and Diesen-- are the moral questions.
The West has committed the ultimate sins-- starting wars – and genocide—killing some 20~30 million people since 1945. Russia does not seek vengeance but it does not forget nor can it forgive .
Leave room for the wrath of God; for it is written, “Vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.” Romans 12:19
A nation is not just a political and economic entity, it is a moral being. A nation without a soul has no right to exist.
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So funny, just had listened to the three and broke off because of the redundancy. Just yesterday I enjoyed Dmitri Orlov at Nima‘s, he is the master of Russian sarcasm. I love him. Wrote a summary on my Facebook account. He is the anti-Mearsheimer saying things like: „if the US wants to avoid being destructed by China it must capitulate. Take the ball and go home.“
Thanks for your work which is important to me. You are right with Ritter and all these „we“-Patriots.
Quoting Col Douglas Mcgregor; "two classes of ships in the next war; submarines and targets". ok maybe missiles and targets. War, especially combined arms, or total war is a rock, paper, scissors game, even with nukes if AD is good enough. Carrier battle groups are worthless against submarines and missiles and navies have never been effective in continental land force wars except to protect supply lines. Oh yeah. The US military hasn't won a war since WWII pacific, but they are masters at disinformation.