War for Dummies
American dummies, that is
Iranian ISR
The Cradle@TheCradleMedia
An informed military source has disclosed to Fars News Agency new details about a complex Iranian intelligence and operational effort preceding the early Thursday attacks on several US military bases in the region.
According to the source, the strikes inflicted significant damage on high-value US military equipment.
The source said Iranian forces closely tracked two US Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft from the moment they took off. One aircraft reportedly departed from Diego Garcia Air Base in the central Indian Ocean, while the other flew from a US military base in Western Europe toward the southern Persian Gulf. Based on intelligence gathered during the operation, Iran allegedly targeted the aircrafts’ locations at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait using precision-guided weapons.
A separate source stated that Iranian intelligence and field surveillance assets also monitored the deployment of at least three US F-35 fighter jets inside a hangar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan up until the final moments before the missile launches. According to the source, Iran subsequently struck the exact location of the hangar with long-range solid-fuel missiles.
Photo from IRGC
It looks like Iran did destroy F16s or F35s in Jordan, not just hangars. As you can see, there were very precise hits. Jordon and the US claim to have shot everything down, but Patriot missiles could not take down a Kheiber MARV warhead, without a huge amount of luck.
The fact that Iran was able to track and hit Navy P8s is also significant: it indicates the Iran’s Chinese supplied ISR was very effective this time, as it was in the past. The P8 is a sophisticated and expensive ($500 million) bit of kit.
Naturally, CENTCOM is not admitting to anything.
But Trump is pissed.
Need I remind you there is a slight difference between Iran and Venezuela in defense capabilities. While the US did take control of Venezuela’s petrochemical marketing it did so at the cost of rebuilding its infrastructure, while leaving the Chavistas in control of everything in the country. The US cannot make up its losses for at least 10 years, at which point the Chavistas will likely take back control .
As for taking control of Kharg Island, it is true that the Island did provide terminal facilities for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, but taking control of Hormuz and the subsequent American blockade have already reduced tanker traffic, so other than pushing oil prices higher, it will make no difference . That is, the terminal is getting only marginal use anyway.
My guess is that the Iranians hope the Americans try to take the island and gift them a lot of Marine hostages!
🩸 Blood Will Be Shed
Will Schryver’s Opinion
As certain to fail as it may be, it appears the US is determined to attempt to insert ground forces into Iran.
And given how obsessed Trump is with market movements, it seems likely they will time this ground assault to coincide with the upcoming 3-day market closure, which begins later today at 1600 EDT — so almost midnight Tehran time.
What exactly the mission of these elite American ground forces will be remains a mystery. But there are only a few plausible alternatives:
🩸 an amphibious / airborne insertion in the vicinity of Chabahar on Iran’s far southern coast
🩸 an assault launched from Kurdistan in the far north
🩸 an assault launched from Kuwait, possibly with the aim of seizing Kharg Island
All three options are, in my estimation, nucking futs; absolutely doomed to failure; very possibly the most catastrophic American military operation since Burnside’s disaster at Fredericksburg in 1862 and Grant’s blood bath at Cold Harbor in 1864.
Although I am not aware of any definitive intelligence on force disposition, my sense is that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked on the USS Tripoli would be assigned to assault Chabahar; the 82nd Airborne would launch from Kuwait, and various special forces units will join with Kurdish allies to launch from Kurdistan.
An attempted seizure of Kharg Island is the stupidest of the three potential objectives, and probably the least likely.
Chabahar entails the second greatest potential for disaster — not only will the Tripoli and its escorts be susceptible to anti-ship attacks, but once the Marines are deposited ashore, safely extracting them will prove exceedingly problematic.
At least an attack in Kurdistan has the virtue of retaining practicable avenues of retreat.
If a Marine assault in Chabahar is planned, then the USS Tripoli must already be in position, which means it is, as we speak, within relatively easy range of Iranian anti-ship missiles.
Also, if Chabahar is the target, then we should assume the USS Fraidy Abe and its destroyers will have mustered the courage to venture much closer to the Iranian coast than they have been over the past month — meaning more targets for Iranian anti-ship missiles.
Anyway, the whole thing is crazy. And it won’t surprise me if this “ground invasion” plan is called off at the last minute.
But then, I resisted for a long time believing the US would even launch this war against Iran in the first place. So, I am undoubtedly once again underestimating how stupid the people commanding this continuing debacle really are.
This is the bottom line: if the US actually does this extraordinarily stupid thing, a lot of American blood will be shed on the soil of Iran.
William Schryver is almost never wrong.
Unexpected Responses
Let us also remember that Iran has been preparing for some kind of confrontation like this .
What we see here is the US — or rather Trump — just reacting. Iran, on the other hand, is applying its version of the “operational art” strategically, managing the “escalation ladder” in such a way, that no matter what the US does it injures itself economically and reputationally.
A Perfect Storm
If Japan’s Central Bank hikes interest rates it will hurt the American economy primarily by triggering capital repatriation, which drives up U.S. borrowing costs. and collapses the "carry trade," causing rapid asset sell-offs, reducing global market liquidity, and negatively impacting U.S. export competitiveness. Combine that with the costs of Trump’s wars, an American investment bubble, overwhelming American debt and the Empire faces catastrophe.
BRICS then wins —Russia, China, and Iran win too.
Cats CAN be protective!
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Ahab had Moby Dick
Zelensky has the Crimean Bridge.
Trumpstein has Kharg Island
I'm suspecting that Iran could easily sink remote US warships - but have chosen not to (so far)