An update of events
Iran
As the world waits for Iran and Hezbollah to retaliate against Israel and the tension mounts, the Iranian strategy is becoming clearer to everyone except Israel and the US.
Tehran is taking the time to establish the moral high ground if not legal basis for retaliation in which lives will inevitably be lost. It’s audience is not just the UN, which is probably less influential than “X” and TikTok, but whole world beyond the Western Collective with its sophisticated media control of ordinary people's perceptions and thinking—the American Borg.
Anticipation generates interest, interest generates awareness. People start asking questions as to the actual situation, as Western media efforts at obfuscation and subterfuge reveal themselves. All this hurts Israel which is already teetering on the edge of an economic collapse exacerbated by a sinking American economy. (Oh, but the band plays on, as third class passengers drown!)
It’s not just psychological warfare — Iran is setting up Israel to attempt a preemptive strike.
Russian delivery of the Murmansk B EW system and reportedly S400 air defense systems and their radars, in addition to Iskander missile systems, suggests that striking Iran would be much more difficult for the Israelis than, say, striking Lebanon or Syria or Yemen.
As I've suggested however, the Iranians have capable air defense systems of their own as well as enough ballistic missiles to level all of Israel.
At the same time, Putin has asked Iran to avoid civilian casualties – which Iran would do anyway.
Iran has lots of targets on military facilities, intelligence and communications centers, oil and gas depots, and power stations, just as Russia is doing in Ukraine.
Not that there won’t be civilian casualties, not matter what. And not that Iran won’t be blamed just as the Houthis were when their drone hit a residential building in Tel Aviv instead of the US diplomatic office nearby which was its target.
But Iran will not do as the Israelis do.
Islam prohibits that kind of indiscriminate violence and the death of innocents.
Fight in God's cause against those who fight you, but do not overstep the limits: God does not love those who overstep the limits. Holy Qu’ran
Also:
a) In the event of the use of force and in case of armed conflict, it is not permissible to kill non-belligerents such as old men, women and children. The wounded and the sick shall have the right to medical treatment; and prisoners of war shall have the right to be fed, sheltered, and clothed. It is prohibited to mutilate dead bodies. It is a duty to exchange prisoners of war and to arrange visits or reunions of the families separated by the circumstances of war.
b) It is prohibited to fell trees, to damage crops or livestock, and to destroy the enemy’s civilian buildings and installations by shelling, blasting or any other means. Article 3 of the Cairo Declaration of Human Rights, issued and adopted at the Nineteenth Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers in Cairo in 1990
If Israel attempts at preemptive strike, Iran will have even more reason for an even more aggressive response that could be militarily devastating to Israel.
At the same time, the US will have even more reason not to get involved— although the Axis of Resistance will target its illegal forces in Syria and the Houthis will not restrain themselves attacking US naval forces in the Red Sea.
That’s one war. Stay tuned.
Ukraine
In Ukraine, the AFU has mounted an offensive using its last reserves in the direction of Kursk.
The Kursk nuclear power plant is just 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
The main objective, however, was probably the village of Sudzha which is important for the transit of Russian gas to Europe and to Hungary and Slovakia. The West seems to want to put this Russian pipeline out of commission just like Nordstream and undermine Orban and Fico in their respective countries.
It should be remembered that Europe still imports Russian gas and oil . .
The US wants to stop that. In any case, while the AFU outnumbered the Russian defender of Sudzha, they kept the Ukrainians at bay until reinforced.
Now the AF you is hunkering down in a few other villages of little strategic importance and wooded areas as the Russians bomb them and shell them.
More deaths. Out of an initial force of 1000, the Ukrainians have lost 300, with a lot of equipment.
Not just denazification and demilitarization but depopulation. Polish sources report n the first six months of 2024, there are three deaths per one newborn Ukrainian. A contributing factor might b the ratio of available men to women, has completely skewed with so many men dead or hiding to avoid conscription. Many Ukrainian women are fleeing to Europe to find a better future.
The US
The mainstream media are hard at work trying to convince the world that the US is not going into recession. But…let us keep in mind there are two Americas. with two two economies. So which America are we talking about.
There is economy one for you and me.
And there is one for the One Percent and their courtiers.
Ours depends on employment opportunities, decent wages, freedom from debt, savings for the future, and money for the things we really need like kibble for your cat and an AR15.
But the US is deindustrialized— and inflation, rent and debt limit discretionary spending for the average person. As the saying goes, the poor get poorer and were all poor. Young man —stay in Mom’s basement. Oh, and hoard your ammunition.
The Rich however get richer. Because their economy is financialized.
Still, the national debt is over 35 trillion… At some point there will be a reckoning.
All we need is a major war to push us over the edge.
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Excellent analysis
Touche' Julian. Your assessment is spot on.