War: timeout? Then what?
The Haji
Coffee Buyers?
No post tonight. Almost 4 AM here in Tokyo…..So, tomorrow!
Trump bump!
Trump threatened to obliterate Iranian civilization if he didn’t get what he wanted from them, although no one, including him, seems to know what he wants.
Then he said he was postponing the attack because the leaders of GCC countries asked him to do that because “they wanted more time for negotiations”.
Shortly after that the real truth came out.
From May 25 to May 30 is the Hajj, the most sacred event for all Muslims - Sunnis, Shi’a, Sufi and all the rest. The Saudis had to lay it on the line to Trump. For them and the rest of the Muslim world, the Haji is inviolable and a time of peace.
So no military base in a Muslim country could be used for war, or even indirectly to support military operations.
The Hajj is the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia—one of the Five Pillars of Islam and a religious duty for all physically and financially capable Muslims at least once in their lives.
Muslims believe that completing the Hajj properly washes away past sins and allows a person to return home spiritually reborn.
It attracts millions of pilgrims from all over the world in simple white garments (Ihram), symbolizing human equality regardless of wealth, race, or status. It is held from the 8th to the 12th (or 13th) of Dhul-Hijjah, the final month of the Islamic lunar calendar, this year May 25 to May 30. .
Sacred sites include the Grand Mosque (Masjid al-Haram), Mina, Mount Arafat, and Muzdalifah. Rites retrace the steps of the prophets Ibrahim (Abraham) and Muhammad .
The pilgrims must follow Ihram. Which means:
Shaving, cutting hair, clipping nails, or using scented soaps and perfumes is forbidden.
Killing animals, cutting down trees, or harming living things is prohibited.
No Intimate relations, marriage proposals, and weddings .
Men cannot cover their heads —no hats or caps, turbans, etc.
No face veils for women: No niqabs or gloves.
The clothing is not just white but simple and unstitched white garments.
Ihram
The Kaaba cube-shaped holy sanctuary is circled counterclockwise seven times
A day of prayer and reflection on Mount Arafat is considered a spiritual peak
Throwing pebbles at three pillars in Mina reject the Devil’s temptation and evil.
This is a time of peace.
Muslims put aside theological and political difference.
The pilgrimage is transcends the sectarian lines that separate Sunni and Shia Muslims for example—to emphasize the universal community of believers or Ummah.
There are no deviations from the prescribed rites and rules, no no separate tracks or alternative routes for different sects and millions of Sunnis and Shias stand shoulder-to-shoulder inside the Grand Mosque sharing the moment .
The Quran forbids arguing, anger, or dispute of any kind. Regional politics are put to one side. It is truly a time-out.
Saudi Arabia bans political rallies, sectarian flags, and theological debates . This is a pilgrimage of peace. For many pilgrims, it is their first time to interact positively with Muslims outside their own tradition.
“[It is] the place whereon Abraham once stood; and whoever enters it finds inner peace. Hence, pilgrimage unto the Temple is a duty owed to God by ALL PEOPLE who are able to undertake it.. (Quran 3:97).
Hence, repulse not [any of] those who at morn and evening invoke their Sustainer, seeking His countenance. Thou art in no wise accountable for them - just as they are in no wise accountable for thee - and thou hast therefore no right to repulse them: for then thou wouldst be among the evildoers. Quran 6:52)
Columbia University found that participating in the Hajj significantly increases a Muslim’s belief in equality, tolerance, and harmony across different Islamic sects and ethnic groups.
The Saudis are the keepers of Mecca. If they had not laid down the law to Trump, they would be overthrown in short order. They, and the GCC states, are already compromised.
For the Islamic states of the Middle East, this event means letting go of sectarian division.
When the Eid al-Adha is over, they will likely return to “normal” but, then again, there is no “normal” anymore in the Middle East.Or was there ever? Politically, most middle eastern nations, with the exception of Iran, are unstable— artificial creations of Western interference after World War I.
Below artificial institutionality, however there is the “ummah” and the lessons of the Qu’’an and shared values.
In any case, it is unlikely that the US can do anything now until June. Of course, they might try to provoke Iran next week. But Iran will not attack any GCC country during the period of the Hajj in response.
It's target would be Israel and US carriers if the dare to come close.
Iran is rapidly developing ramjet boosters for anti ship cruise missiles complete with AI horming and control, not available right away but for the time being… the CM 302.
As time goes on, the US has fewer and fewer options and no chance of victory.
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Sorry, I am getting addicted to Monsieur Ginger.








US bases in Arab countries are US territory. So, if USrael uses them as springboard to launch attacks against Iran, the latter can still attack them, though it could be dangerous, of course.
On the other hand, the IRGC has promised that, in case of renewed aggression, it would expand the war beyond the region and attack US bases in Europe: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/irgc-warns-usrael-that-a-new-war?r=25fc37 and https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/32265
an arrogant 250 year old upstart thought it could take on a civilization older than Christ