War weather?

Forecasts

According to my friends at SouthFront, the US is preparing for war against Iran.

You can see that, they say, in the increase in military cargo flights to US bases in the Middle East and stepped up deployment. Take the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in central-eastern Jordan now hosting F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets,

EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets,

and MQ-9 Reaper combat drones

along with a THAAD system.

Al Udeid Air Base near Doha has welcomed over a dozen KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft ,

…a RC-135 Rivet Joint signal intelligence plane,

…and Patriot air defense system to supplement US naval air defense.

Impressive, huh?

Except that THAAD and Patriot didn’t protect the Israelis very well in the 12 Day War, and Israeli warplanes stayed well out of Iranian airspace to launch standoff munitions. The Houthis shot down a slew of Reaper drones and forced American forces to withdraw from the Red Sea, despite lacking the advanced radars, air defense systems, tech specialists, and EW systems and all that other stuff that the Iranians have.

Diego Garcia has been busy in the Indian Ocean, with a Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer docked at the base port, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, KC-135 Stratotanker refueling planes, and two MC-130J Commando II aircraft equipped for special operations.

And Trump is talking about sending another carrier group! Another fat target!

The American Zionist lobby is rumored to be pressuring Trump to take action, and it appears that Netanyahu is too, despite initial reports that he feared Iran’s reaction. From the Zionist point of view, the Iranians will just keep getting stronger. So a war now is better than on later.

SouthFront’s ME analysts think that Trump is buying time with the negotiations in roder to lull the Iranians in thinking they can talk their way out confrontation. This I suppose would permit the Americans a face-saving strike like the B2 strike of last year But last year’s attack was pre-arranged. The Iranians just let it happen .

But things have changed since last year. If the Iranians allowed such a strike following by some kind of “negotiations” they would be setting themselves up for more CIA/ MOSSAD / MI6 terrorism and subversion such as they just experienced – an attempt at a Ukraine type Maidan Coup.

The Western Media is promoting the theory that the Iranian people fear war and want peace at any cost and hate their government.

But…

President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed his gratitude to the Iranian people for their “exceptional” turnout in nationwide rallies marking the 47th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution.

He made the remarks in the northeastern Golestan Province on Thursday, one day after Iranians took to the streets in millions to renew their allegiance to the Islamic Republic amid recent threats by the US and Israel against the country.

The public mood has changed. About 70% of Iranians advocate a strong response to foreign aggression – despite worrying about economic conditions. Economic hardships now signal to them they are already at war and they know who to blame..

The government therefore will make efforts to appear “reasonable” but the US and the EU have already declared war and things will take their course.

Talking to friends in the ME, they feel — without exception— felt a military provocation by the US should be answered with overwhelming force, if possible focused on Israel, which they see as the core of American military might in the Middle East.

Disabling a US carrier would be good, too. But destroying Israeli military and civilian infrastructure would be better.

Should the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz even temporarily – for, say, two weeks, that would raise oil prices suddenly, which would be to the advantage of Russia— of course.

China could handle a two week hiatus very nicely. While US oil refineries handling Venezuelan crude might benefit, the sudden shock of higher prices would likely trigger a securities market sell-off in the US.

In that case, I think American Zionist lobby would be blamed for the loss of American lives, livelihood and influence--and both parties should be at pains to distance themselves and seek meaningful solutions, especially in Palestine as many Jews are doing. I say “should” assuming rational response.

I have argued that a war with Iran is unlikely - -because it wouldn’t, couldn’t succeed. That’s a rational point of view.

Military people are supposedly rational, if only because their lives are on the line. But American generals do not put themselves in harm’s way.

Also one must ask when was the last war that began for rational reasons? Korea? Nope. Vietnam? Iraq? Afghanistan? There is a long list. The US lost them all.

So maybe, I was wrong to think that Trump would avoid a shooting war in the Middle East.

Friendship is the most natural thing.

If other animals can do it - -why can’t we? The answer is: we can and we do. It is the most natural thing in the world Politicians unfortunately are unnatural. Can we hope they go extinct?

Which brings us to coffee. Coffee really IS good for you. It’s all about dopamine….

I should know. I was not allowed to drink coffee when I lived at home. So I was always “before coffee”. Come to think of it - -maybe I still am.

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