What next for Ukraine?

And Putin?

Russian public reaction to the SMO

As you will have noticed, I read the Russian media a lot, as well as the various channels on Telegram.

I don’t just read the articles, I read the comments, which gives me an idea of the debate going on in Russia. Of course, the content of those comments depends a lot on the site – and its slant. Some sites are conservative, some more “liberal”.

It is pretty clear that Russians

• love to argue

• distrust “official narratives”

• regard Putin as “liberal”

• are nationalistic

As far as the SMO is concerned, many Russians are impatient with the slow pace and what they see as Putin’s “moderation”. This segment by and large regards negotiations with the US as a crock – a waste of time – and worry that Putin might make concessions. By and large, they want Russia to take all of the territory on the east bank of the Dniepr, as well as Kherson and the Black Sea Coast to Transnistria.

But they don’t want a major conventional war requiring full Russian mobilization. Rather, they want Putin to use super- weapons like Oreshnik and pulverize resistance in Western Ukraine, shock and awe style. At the same time, there can be no peacefor them as long as the NeoNazis who commited acts of terrorism and various atrocities have been hunted down and either killed or put in prison for the rest of their lives.

That appear to be one segment of the population-- but a large one,.

So what is Putin going to do? Options”

It is clear from his interviews and speeches that he doesn’t trust American promises. On the other hand, he doesn’t know about future administrations – so he will keep the Americans talking, establishing a diplomatic precedent, hoping for some shift in American policies as the geopolitical environment evolves. .

Looking at the Ukraine what are his options?

A peace agreement brokered by the Americans?

This is not a real option because a brokered peace agreement requires an honest broker which the US obviously is not.

Washington continues to enable Kiev’s terrorist attacks with weapons and ISR and other assistance and it encourages NATO to gear up for war with Russia. It would seem that it thinks that Ukraine is a “loser” — no longer viable as a military proxy so it must “proxify” NATO while pretending to be even-handed.

The Russians know that a brokered peace agreement that leaves an independent Ukrainian state in place with “security guarantees” is just a temporary ceasefire which NATO and its surrogates can use to maneuver.

So, as Putin and Lavrov have indicated, peace will be decided on the battlefield.

Concomitants

Here, the issue is that Ukraine is not and never has been a real nation.

It is a collection of ethnic groups, with Russian speakers dominating the most productive parts of the region. “Ukrainians” are driven by two extremist groups. The first are the Banderites —an artificial ethnic identity—which so far has been a kind of national Frankenstein, which would supplant all others.

Their home oblasts are in the extreme West on the Polish border. They hate the Poles as much as the Russians. They also hate Jews, Roma, and others. They revere WWII Nazi monsters.

Then there are rightwing extremists -- mostly Russian speaking – from the Southeast – Kharkiv and Mariupol. The Azovs. The were “football ultras”, rather similar to British football hooligans as subculture.

These Ukrainian ultras adopted the British “casual” style of the 1980s—wearing high-end designer sportswear to blend in and avoid police detection and shared obsessions centering on masculinity, physical prowess, and combat sports. In both the UK and Ukraine, pre-arranged fights between rival firms served as a “testing ground” for loyalty and discipline.

The Azovs have been driven from Mariupol and there are only a few left in Kharkov. But since 2014, they have had immense power based on their capacity for mad-dog violence.

There can never be peace in Ukraine until these two neo-Nazi, fascist sub-cultures are dealt with.

An occupation is not the answer . Rather, as in the new Ukrainian republics that opted to join Russian Federation, local people who have no tolerance for extremists murdering their neighbors have to take action.

One solution is for the Russians to roll right up to the Polish border and then hold referendums giving the local people in each oblast an option to join the Russian Federation while at the same time, arresting and trying Ukrainian extremists for war crimes. Guerrilla warfare is possible under these circumstances but unlikely. Most of the extremists would flee.

The farmers in the West want to farm – not fight. If their ethnic rights are guaranteed, local democracy restored, and the rule of law, they would probably be happy to join the Russian Federation which allows them a national identity and an economic future—and also cancels all their debts.

However, extending the war west of the Dniepr means the SMO could go on until well into 2027.

And this plan would only work if Western Ukraine was cut off from the Black Sea Coast.

Istanbul 1 Istanbul 2

The Istanbul 2022 “peace” was just an enforceable version of the previous Minsk Agreements, which guaranteed ethnic rights and democratic values. When the US and the UK forced Zelensky to renege, there was nothing left for the Russians to do but enforce reality militarily .

With the four oblasts joining the Russian Federation, options changed – for “Ukraine” at least which could never regain its lost territories. Furthermore, a precedent was established – the right of Ukrainian oblasts to self-determination.

In the meantime, Russia has poured huge amounts of money into “economic restoration” and revival of its new republics. Much of the industry is gone but the area is rich in resources. Many people have fled to Russia will return but those who stayed have advantages.

In the meantime, Russia and the US talked about a peace agreement that many called “Istanbul 2” except that Russia and Ukraine are so far apart in their positions, that agreement is impossible!

Talking peace, even if impossible, however, is important to Russia’s international reputation as a reliable partner – as it seeks to create a multipolar world.

Trump’s incompetence, his encouragement of both Ukraine and NATO to fight while pretending “peace’ means that Ukraine will keep on fighting as long as Zelensky, the Banderites and Azovs stay in power.

Once the Russians fully liberate the four oblasts completely everything changes. For one thing. that liberation will includle l Kherson. From there, it is hop, skip and a jump to Odessa and the Black Sea.

The Governor of Mykolaiv Vitaliy Kim has already started talking compromise –land for peace—meaning he realizes that once the Russians retake all of Kherson, his days are numbered. And Russia will retake Kherson and has to retake the Black sea coast.

Russia cannot afford to leave the Black Sea coast in Ukrainian hands, given the terror attacks originating there, and the risks involved to the Motherland. Russian public opinion will not permit it.

As it now stands further attacks on Russia supported by US and NATO forces may push Russia to achieve a military victory over ALL of Ukraine with Russian forces pushing to the Polish border and an unconditional surrender.This is something that Medvedev has been talking about — although he also says Russia doesn’t want Lviv!

Right now, the public would like the SMO all over with, but they are also used to it.And as long as Russia keeps on advancing, they feel a sense of pride.

The Rump state option.

This scenario assumes the liberation of the Four Oblasts, as well as the Black Sea Coast, and the oblasts immediately east of the Dniepr.

With Kiev threatened, it is possible that there will be an uprising against the current regime and the new regime surrenders unconditionally rather than see the Russian army rolling over the steppes towards Lviv.

This is most likely if it coincides with a sudden economic downturn in Europe and the US, leaving Russia and China ascendant.

Go where the money is .

Ukrainians can see the progress being made in places like Mariupol.

Most of the Ukrainian population who had resources have fled to either Russia or Europe or Canada-- those who are left need Russian help for the future. Can they trust the US? The Poles? The Germans?

This would allow referendums which would include joining the Russian like Belarus, which is an independent state but allied to Russia.

This new “Ukraine” would then become a Russian client state.

The Russians are naturally loathe to try to rule any state made up of such people.

If the Russians were to secure the West Bank of the Dniepr their way to the Lviv would be over steppe land in the North and rolling hills, mostly agricultural land, with some forests to the south . The whole areas is lightly populated compared to other areas.

As you can there are other options.

From Putin’s point of view, the situation is an endless series of loops.

Observe. Orient. Decide. Act. And start all over again,

Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems …any logical model of reality is incomplete (and possibly inconsistent) and must be continuously refined/adapted in the face of new observations.

However, as our observations about the world become more and more precise and subtle, a second principle… limits our ability to observe reality correctly: Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.

In other words, in long-term strategy — don’t get ahead of yourself. Go slow in order to adapt fast.

This guy in Russia has a pet wolverine. I don’t recommend it. Notice the teeth. Wolverines have tremendously powerful jaws.

Read Larry Johnson’s post about the Alaskan guy who had to escape to Russia because of …um.. wolverines. Also foxes. Wolves. Bears.

Chappy and Ichi point out they do not bite.. They are always polite. And they don’t smell. (Wolverines REALLY smell!)

Buy Chappy and Ichi coffee at the buymeacoffee.com website.