Will Iran Declare War?

The US commits national suicide

Israel proves it is rogue state

Israel has gone ahead and done it once again – it has attacked Iran, not only nuclear facilities and military bases but residential buildings, housing scientists and military commanders.

Israel's line is that it's preventing Iran from making a nuclear weapon-- something that Iran has steadfastly refused to do for years and years, considering it a sin against God.

Israel insists that it has put back Iran's progress in military areas and nuclear technology maybe a decade or more..

The US of course says it has nothing to do with the attacks-- which obviously could not have been carried out without US support. All the attacks were launched from Iraqi airspace and presumably the airspace where US bases are located. And of course they could not be carried out easily without US ISR information and support, including refueling .

The US position is that it is pursuing a “diplomatic” solution, so we have good cop / bad cop .

What's gonna happen now?

Clearly, the US was involved in this attack, just as it was in Ukrainian attacks on Russia—and it could have prevented them from happening. So, it has not only undermined the last shreds of international credibility that it enjoyed, but is committing national suicide. Goodbye ‘United” States. Hello Free California.

Iran has been preparing for this moment for a long time building up its arsenal and capabilities. Will it back off? Unlikely. Iranians have the will that Americans lack. This is not the first time that they have faced off against an American proxy— the last time being the War with Iraq, which lasted 8 years and cost 500,000 lives.

Ready and willing

Today, Iran is better prepared than in 1980 —much more technologically advanced, with a lot of their resources underground and impervious to Israeli strikes. Whatever the Zionazis destroyed above ground is just a tiny fraction of what awaits below.

Israelis delude themselves that by killing commanders they can paralyze military activity — that by killing a few physicists they can stop research and development.

The IRGC command structure is not the kind of top-down system favored by the Israeli and American militaries, since top-down direction is qualified by bottom-up participation. It is both coherent and flexible.

Killing an old guy at the top just means that younger commanders move up, bringing new ideas and innovations to military strategy.

The same caveat applies to scientific work which is always a team effort. Would killing Einstein have delayed the development of the atomic bomb in 1945? No, not at all. You'd have to have gotten rid of the whole team.

In addition, Iran can count on technical help and resources from Russia, China, and North Korea. This is their turn for Proxy War

Blowback

Israel’s showy display of military might and bloodied minded aggression no doubt plays well to national narcissism in Israel and in the US, but it also polarizes the conflict, and unifies the Iranian people who, despite their diversity, must come together to survive.

Yes, there will be dissident groups that may try to take advantage of the situation – but they will be immediately suppressed by the majority. Israel is not going to take them in.

What is happening here parallels the Ukraine crisis and Ukraine attacking Russian strategic bases —apparently in an effort to provoke a Russian attack against NATO bases, and draw the US more closely into direct involvement in the war.

That appears to have been a total failure. Instead, Russia has decided to designate the Kiev regime as a “terrorist organization”. There are also rumors that the Kremlin is considering formally declaring war on Ukraine, which will allow it much more extreme options under Russian law. Ukriane’s and Israel’s gratuitous attacks are, of course, expressions of desperation, but also denial — a refusal to acknowledge they have lost.

Israel wants to get the US involved in war against Iran. But, Israel has only one strategy— war and conquest. The US strategy is just conquest. But neither country can hope to win in the long run.

Now it's quite possible-- responding to this latter-day Pearl Harbor --that Iran might formally declare war on Israel.

As you recall, Japan's strike on Pearl Harbor was successful, and Japan had the advantage at that moment in terms of military assets. But the US declared war and Japan lost, largely because it did not have the industrial base of the US at the time.

Plot twist in the historical narrative

Russia or Iran declaring war on another state changes the whole script for Western history after 1945. It sends a chilling message. Because the ultimate war is nuclear.

Even if WWIII were not nuclear, Israel has no industrial base – and the US's industrial base is steadily diminishing-- while those of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are increasing.

If the US cannot even subdue housewives in LA, what are the chances of it achieving meaningful victories in the Middle East – or anywhere else against peer level foes?

US will keep on supplying Israel with weapons of course – which gives Iran a reason to destroy Israel's military capabilities completely, along with the energy grid, which its defenses rely upon. In the US does not have the industrial capacity to make up for these losses.

US bases in the oil states? Not assets – hostages.

Should the US try to enter the conflict, those bases will be destroyed along with everyone on on them. The US Navy will be targeted. And, Iran has the capability to strike as far as Diego Garcia.

No one mentions Russia, which is mulling an “asymmetric” and “proportionate” response to the US and UK attacks on its strategic bases. It too can make use of “im-plausible deniability— but supplying Iran with missiles and technology — using Russian “volunteers” or “contract workers”. Of course, Iran has its own systems but Russia’s are even better.

We live in interesting times.

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