Will the SMO end NATO?

Putin's strategy

In my last post, I partially explained my theory that Putin was applying the lessons of the Chechen Wars to Ukraine’s SMO. I realized that I glossed over a lot of things. So, here are more details.

Differences

Of course, there are huge differences between Chechnya in the late 20th and early 21st Century and Ukraine today, one of the main ones being over military support from NATO and its members for Ukraine. In effect, NATO is a co-belligerent against Russia, which means that Europe must also be.

By contrast, the US and its allies were never directly involved in Chechnya.

But: oil outflows from the Caucasus and Central Asia passed through Chechnya via pipelines laid in the Soviet period. To maintain its dominance of the world oil resources, the USA was naturally keen to block or control these outflows. Nothing new in that.

Oil, oil, oil.

In 1994, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.

While the U.S. government and American oil companies briefly explored low-level diplomatic contact with the emerging Taliban movement in late 1994 regarding potential pipeline routes from Central Asia, this was purely transactional and never evolved into a formal political or military alliance.

So, as I said, the US had no direct influence. That doesn’t mean it had no involvement at all, for he Afghans supported the Chechens and the CIA and MI6 encouraged them, if not supported them directly. I am sure you recognize the scenario.

First Chechen War (1994–1996)

The Russian strategy in the First Chechen War (1994–1996) relied heavily on conventional “shock and awe” strikes, such as the Americans would use — it started with decapitation attacks and a three-pronged blitzkrieg, leveraging air superiority. .

Following the catastrophic failure of the New Year’s Eve armored assault on Grozny, Russia abandoned precise maneuvers and shifted to heavy artillery, rocket, and aerial bombardment to flatten the city, the kind of thing the US became famous for in Fallujah later. That worked.

The Chechen separatists then retreated to the lowlands and southern mountains and the Russians swept the countryside, which alienated local populations who might otherwise have remained neutral or even pro-Russian.

But, in August 1996, the Chechens launched a surprise assault that trapped thousands of Russian troops in Grozny.

Facing catastrophic military losses and an impending presidential election, Boris Yeltsin needed an immediate exit. This was his TACO moment.

Yeltsin appointed General Alexander Lebed to negotiate directly with Chechen Chief of Staff Aslan Maskhadov. A mistake.

The Khasavyurt Accord

Immediate Ceasefire andRussian Troop Withdrawal:

Moscow agreed to completely withdraw forces.

Political Status

Both sides agreed to officially defer the question of Chechnya’s political status for five years (until December 31, 2001).

Joint Administration

To restore infrastructure, and combat crime until formal elections could be held.

Results

Chechnya became entirely self-governing, operating as the unrecognized Ichkerian Republic.

The vacuum left by Russia, combined with a shattered economy, and Chechnya’s unique clan culture led to rampant warlordism, kidnappings, and the rise of radical Islamist factions.

Violence, radicalism andw instability ultimately led directly to the Second Chechen War in 1999.

The Second Chechen War

In the first war, Yeltsin had sidelined the KGB, whilst gutting the agency, relying instead on military hardliners.

Vladimir Putin became head of the successor to the FSB in 1998, subsequently was appointed Prime Minister in August 1999. Despite his inexperience he was ready when the second Chechen war began.

On August 7, 1999, radical Chechen commander Shamil Basayev and his Saudi-born ally, Ibn al-Khattab, led an army of over 1,500 Islamist fighters across the border into the neighboring Russian republic of Dagestan to back local Dagestani religious radicals, overthrow the local government, and merge Chechnya and Dagestan into a unified, Islamic state.

By late August, Russian forces had pushed the militants back across the border into Chechnya

Then came a wave of terrorist attacks, spreading panic across Russia.

Over a two-week period in September 1999, four apartment buildings were blown up—two in Moscow, one in Buynaksk, and one in Volgodonsk, killing more than 300 people and injuring over 1,000.

Shamil Basayev denied involvement, but there was an intense, nationalistic demand for vengeance, among Russians.

Foreign sources and the CIA and MI6, allege the FSB staged the bombings as a false-flag operation to justify the war and propel Putin to power, relying on anti-Putin defectors like Alexander Litvinenko .However, previous and subsequent Chechen terrorism tend to confirm the opposite —that is was not a false flag but the real thing.

Rather, having lost in Dagestan, the Chechens apparently wanted a re-do of 1996 when they had won in Grozy. They figured they could do it again.

In a interview with Peter Osnos, Yeltsin said he chose Putin to lead Russia because Putin was the only potential successor who was “not a lackey. Putin's briefings were precise, analytical, and strictly professional. Yeltsin respected that Putin had an internal core of independence and personal dignity and did not act as a sycophant to power.

The Second Chechen War (1999 to 2009)

Systematic Attack, sparing ground troops.

Unlike the chaotic initial rush into Grozny in 1994, the Russians used artillery, heavy air strikes, and rocket attacks to pulverize fortifications in urban areas before sending in ground troops. Rather similar to their attacks against fortified urban areas in Donbass.

Slow but sure

Operations advanced slowly and deliberately, making good use of terrain and geography, starting north of the Terek River and ending with a complete blockade of of Grozny before forcing its reduction.

Attrition of Leadership: Russian special forces and intelligence systematically hunted down high-profile Chechen separatist commanders and foreign jihadist leaders over several years insisting that these people must be “brought to justice”.

“Chechenization” and Political Co-optation

Flipping Local Factions: Moscow realized conventional military force alone could not end the rebellion. Russia exploited the deep divisions between radical Islamist jihadists and moderate / secular nationalists.

Proxy Governance: Russia shifted political and security control to cooperative local Chechens, starting with the former mufti Akhmad Kadyrov (and later his son Ramzan Kadyrov).

Subcontracting Security: Kadyrov Chechen paramilitary forces (such as the Kadyrovtsy) took over the heavy lifting of day-to-day counterinsurgency, policing, and rooting out remaining rebels, which also reduced direct Russian military casualties.

Economic Reconstruction and Pacification

Financial Subsidies: Moscow poured massive federal funds into rebuilding Grozny and the rest of Chechnya, offering economic incentives and government jobs to a war-weary population.

Pacification: The carrot of reconstruction was paired with counter-terrorism measures, sweeping investigations, and arms controls.

As I said, Kievan Ukraine is a different beast, but Putin is approaching it in the same way — strategically. As with Chechnya, he wants to minimize Russian casualties but he also recognizes that some casualties are a necessary consequence of a conflict like this. He also understands how a weakened opponent will turn to vicious terrorism, which becomes worse when supported by an ideology of hatred

The Chechens did it. The Ukrainians do it.

The Chechens are now real Russians….

These rats are wanted. We have been looking for them for a long time. Now they have turned up in the capital of Ukraine. Moreover, I very much hope that our Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President Vladimir Putin, will give an order and send our units to settle accounts with the aforementioned underdogs.

For us, it is a matter of principle to settle our accounts with the shaytans who have rampaged through the Chechen Republic. We have been looking for them for a long time. Today they have resurfaced, like dirt, in Ukraine. And as long as they happen to be there, it is simply vital that we take advantage of the opportunity. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov

Nor are all Ukrainians terrorists either. Ukraine is a multiethnic society - -it is heterogeneous, if not tribal. That is why the Banderites are insistent on their definition of the Ukrainian identity, trying to make one people out of many — all speaking the same, worshipping the same, thinking the same. It is also why most people speak Russian — it is the lingua franca.

Chechens are one ethnic group but also heterogeneous, divided into about 130 autonomous clans, each with its own history and lineal cuture. They achieve unity only as Russians.

Right now, Zelensky’s support is slipping — noticeably in the West and Europe - -but also in Ukraine. With Ukraine being destroyed. Industry, energy infrastructure, logistics and over two million casualties, political factions are now seeking power, an and in so doing accelerating the process of decline.

For example, Drapatyi replaced Syrsky and immediately announced he was going to “reform” the military - which meant replacing commanders loyal to Syrsky. With whom? Probably Fedorov’s men. But….

Syrsky’s resignation could signal a shift to a harsher line of action by [Ukraine’s] Nazi junta, given its obvious losses at the front. For example, [acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Aleksander] Poklad is a representative of the Kremenchug organized crime group, who was nicknamed ‘Strangler’ even by his gang. According to some reports, he enjoys personally torturing people and executing sentences. As for Khmara, he was a member of the Ukrainian Alpha group. The group attempted to carry out active operations on Russian territory, most likely including the murder of Darya Dugina. Military expert Alexander Artamonov

Drapatyi is a mid-level commander of mid level abilities. He doesn’t have a real political base, which is of course why Zelensky wanted him as Commander in Chief. He will do as he is told. But at the same time, he may be easily influenced Fedorov who has his own base - or by NeoNazis such as Kremenchug or the Alphas.

As for the average Ukrainian soldier, its not going to be good for morale.

When Slavyansk and Kramatorsk fall, and the east bank of the Dnieper belongs to Russia, you will see political infighting in Kiev. As I said, Western Ukraine is not one country.

Ironically, it will find stability only under some form of Russian control.

And what will that mean for NATO?

Alastair Crooke thinks it means the end of NATO — and maybe of the EU.

NATO would then have no reason to exist— unless it launches a war against Russia.

What reason would it have for that?

It would have to think hard if Ukraine either joins Russia or allies with it of its own free will.

Personally, I don’t think NATO has the stomach for a war which it would so obviously lose, given that Russia is growing stronger by the day.

RIP….Humanoid dreams.

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