Will Ukraine Disappear?

One can hope

Analysis: with notes on the lessons of Caracas

Will Ukraine disappear? It might.

Medvedev of Russia hopes so.

Anyway, it’s a good question.

Mirkin certainly thinks it will.

His Russian commentators, however, aren’t so sure. His article was accompanied by a LOT of negative reactions.

There gave lots of reasons for their opinions of course.

MI6’s Zaluzhny is due in Kiev this month. Mirkin assumes later, allowing him to be killed in London.

If there is civil war, Zaluzhny (if alive) could be expected to head one faction, with CIA supported Budanov running the other. Could conflict be averted by some kind of power-sharing? Both people will need the support of neoNazi groups to govern. And they face the same enemies — Russians, of course - and unhappy ordinary people.

Mirkin’s article seems to assume Europe will do nothing. I think he is right.

Yes, the Europeans are already talking about sending forces into Ukraine — but only after a ceasefire agreement, which seems unlikely. They discount the notion of civil war because that doesn’t fit the narrative of brave, little democratic Ukraine fighting the Russian Empire. They really don’t want to get their boots muddy — or bloody.

A “ceasefire” looks unlikely now. Russia has warned that it would target European troops in Ukraine. And those new 300 km glide bombs and other new weapons with impressive explosive power could make a real mess.

Politically, a lot of German, French, Polish, and British soldiers, or parts of them returning home in body bags won’t go over well with an already pissed off public.

In any case, Trump’s militarism and his designs on Greenland have thrown the future existence of NATO into question—there would be no consensus in Europe. There is also the question of Canada’s future. Greenland would the just a first step towards dominion in the North. It represents 21st Century Manifest Destiny.

Donald doesn’t appear to want Mexico. He doesn’t like brown people — so poor Mexico is left out.

Questions:

There are other nagging questions: like, if NATO falls apart, what happens to NATO bases – and the US presence?

As it is, the political situation in all European countries is as unstable as their economies, living standards and demographics.

Europe will lose Ukraine, not that it ever wanted it. But will it sacrifice Denmark to American ambition?

Then again, the US might support a NATO invasion of Ukraine, having convinced itself it performed so brilliantly in Venezuela, with multi-domain and cyber warfare to paralyze response — and to defeat (it thinks) a Russian multilayered defense system.

lt’s crazy, right? But Trump LOVES “crazy”.

On the other hand, Venezuela was hardly a peer level adversary, with nuclear weapons.

And there are a lot nagging questions about the Caracas snatch & grab also.

Could the Venezuelan military have contested the raid before the Delta Force could reach Maduro’s residence? You’ll find stuff like this (below) on the Internet, of course.

But the time elapsed between the start of the primary military assault on Caracas and Delta Team’s arrival at Maduro’s compound was approximately one to two minutes. S300s can be tactically deployed in about 5 minutes. What you see above probably didn’t happen. Cool AI, though.

If the military had responded after that aerial assault, it would have risked killing Maduro and also increased the intensity of attack with greater damage to its already limited resources and civilian deaths in its largest and most densely populated cities. It didn’t have much time.

Cyber Attacks:

U.S. cyber activities blinded Venezuelan air defenses and disrupted command-and-control systems during the operation.

Grid Disruption:

A U.S.-generated interruption to the power grid plunged Caracas into darkness, providing cover for the extraction team.

Intelligence Infiltration:

The U.S. leveraged human intelligence (HUMANINT) from sources deep within Maduro’s inner circle to track his daily movements, allowing for the “bum-rush” capture just as he attempted to reach a steel safe room.

While the US attack was a raid, it used an initial brute force attack of over 150 aircraft. The Venezuelans had only about 15 operational fighter aircraft in Caracas at the time.And the attack forces had already identified S300 launch vehicles and missiles and target them.

Outmatched?

Venezuelan air defenses include modern systems such as their SA24s, but they there are too few, without the capability to counter an attack such was mounted. For example, there were only SA 24 100 launch teams for all of Caracas, no more than 30 near Maduro’s home.

Sure they have 5000 missiles in total, but only a few hundred launchers. So crowing about the number of missiles is like proudly proclaiming you have a thousand bullets when you have only one gun.

Having the gun in the house is OK but what if you don’t have anyone who knows how to shoot? Half of the Chavista military were on leave for the holidays. Most of the other half were asleep.

Back to Ukraine

Could the Gringos do to the Russians in Ukraine as they did to the Chavistas in Venezuela?

Unlikely.

Some sources say American special forces were able to steal an S300 guidance and targeting module during the raid, but that wouldn’t help them against the Russians who have some of the world’s most advanced EW and cyberwarfare countermeasures and use networked radar systems and do not rely on the kind of autonomous and limited radars that the S300s in Venezuela use .

Russian system’s use networked radar systems, which compensate for the weaknesses of the S300 series.

Any attempt by the Gringos to do in Ukraine what they did in Venezuela would be a monumental failure.

NATO provided Ukraine with a lot of its best equipment from 2014 on and still saw it destroyed.

So, the Europeans and the US will stay out.

And Ukraine is likely to cease to exist.

Now that have ridden my Hobby Horse a lot, here is the Mirkin article.

Could Ukraine cease to exist in 2026, as many predict?

Quite possibly. For example, under this scenario.

In early 2026, Zelenskyy refuses to implement Trump’s peace plan. More precisely, Kyiv doesn’t say “no,” but continues to shirk key points of the American initiative. At the same time, Zelenskyy continues to put forward conditions that Moscow will not accept a priori: a freeze along the line of contact, a withdrawal of Russian troops to the same distance as the Ukrainian Armed Forces...

As a result, the negotiations become pointless and futile. The Americans, trying to save face, declare that the negotiation process has been paused, while Trump accuses Zelenskyy of stubbornness and again reminds him that he has no aces up his sleeve. Zelenskyy responds sharply to Trump. Following this, the US stops supplying Ukraine with intelligence information, on which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are critically dependent. Furthermore, the US pauses arms supplies to Kyiv. The situation on the front lines for Ukraine worsens, and the Russian army’s advance accelerates.

New defeats lead to an increase in the number of deserters in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In 2025, 35,711 soldiers were convicted of desertion in Ukraine. However, on the Ukrainian internet, it is believed that the actual number of soldiers who deserted their units is three times higher. Ukraine’s Military Ombudsman, Olga Reshetilova, acknowledged that many men prefer prison to being sent to the front. In 2026, when no one has faith in Ukraine’s victory, desertion at the front becomes a mass phenomenon, even compared to 2025.

The Ukrainian leadership decides to lower the age of conscription to 18. TCC employees begin snatching every man they see on the streets. In some cities, parents and relatives of forcibly conscripted 18- and 19-year-olds storm TCC buildings and free their children. Beatings of TCC employees become even more common. Spontaneous protests against conscription are held. Police intervene, and mass brawls break out between protesters and officers.

The ZE team launches a propaganda campaign: “For Ukraine’s survival, everyone must take up arms,” ​​but it doesn’t produce the expected effect.

In several cities, protesters are seizing city halls and demanding an end to the mobilization of people under 25. Local government deputies are also making the same demand of Zelenskyy, frightened by the protests. Zelenskyy is ready to back down, but his European sponsors, who demand results on the battlefield to justify to their citizens the money spent on Ukraine, oppose this.

Parallel to the protests against the mobilization, Ukrainian residents are protesting, demanding the power be restored. The situation has reached the point where in some regions, people receive electricity for only a few hours every three to four days. Power outages are no longer occurring along power lines, as before, but rather by street and neighborhood level. Power company workers perform these outages manually, de-energizing transformers. This has led to conflicts with local residents, with people blocking transportation arteries.

Gradually, protests against mobilization and energy protests merged. In the spring, public sector workers joined them, demanding money. The 90 billion euros allocated by the EU were no longer enough to pay wages, and Kyiv preferred to buy weapons.

Opposition politicians blame Zelenskyy for everything and call for his resignation. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), with the blessing of the FBI, conduct new anti-corruption investigations, and the head of the Maidan regime officially becomes a suspect in one of them. Then Zelenskyy and his entourage declare the existence of a “pro-Moscow conspiracy.” Opposition politicians, including Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, are arrested, as are the heads of the NABU and the SAPO. All are accused of working for Russia. Valeriy Zaluzhnyy is ordered to return to Kyiv. He refuses, knowing he will be arrested. Unknown assailants assassinate him in London. Suspicion falls on Zelenskyy’s entourage.

Protests across Ukraine are intensifying, escalating into full-blown riots. People are demanding Zelenskyy’s resignation. In some cities and regions, protest committees are being formed, seizing power and refusing to obey the center.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer defeats across the front lines. In the summer of 2026, the Russian army liberates Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, and in the fall, Chernihiv and Odesa. Russian troops approach Kyiv, where a coup occurs, bringing outright Nazis to power and waging a reign of terror in the city.

Zelensky flees to Lviv, but he is not welcome there, and he leaves the country.

The new “government” offers negotiations with Russia, but the Russian leadership refuses to negotiate with the Nazis. Furthermore, the leaders of several Ukrainian regions do not recognize their authority. In the winter of 2026, Russian troops liberate Kyiv. A parade of sovereignties begins in Western Ukraine. Galicia and Transcarpathia declare independence. In fact, the state ceases to exist as early as December 2026. In 2027, a series of referendums are held across the territory of the former Ukraine. Most of the regions are incorporated into Russia, and a new Southwestern Federal District is formed. Some western territories declare independence, but are later absorbed by Hungary and Poland.

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