WWIII came and went

And nobody noticed

Taurus Missiles

The West doubts that Russia will retaliate against Germany directly if it supplies Ukraine with long-range missiles and operators to guide them in their terror attacks on Russia. Instead, itthinks Russia will just ramp up the war against the Zelensky regime.

This, despite many warnings from Russia about the consequences of co-belligerency.

The West is perhaps right about this – but for all the wrong reasons. Which is dangerous — after all, the war started in 2022 because of a similar misunderstanding of Russian policy and positions and redlines.

The Russians do not want to escalate the conflict into Europe, but they will if they have to. Some of those redlines are painted in blood.

But Western countries, especially the US, imagine that Russia is afraid of the West.

The Western Collective – the US, Europe, Australia and Canada—all think that the US is still Number One militarily, as it was after World War II when it was the only country with nukes.

War on Japan

But let us keep in mind that the only peer level war that the US won in the 20th century was its war against Japan – which was a peer level adversary only in military terms and not industrially,

Japan lost, as Adm. Yamamoto correctly predicted it would, because of the insufficiency of its industrial base. Still, it could've won the initial stage of the war, if it's Navy had not been based on assumptions from WWI – a battleship war. It kept on building battleships until the very end, just as the US keeps on building carriers thinking back to WWII.

The Japanese had hoped unrealistically for a limited war . And, as it was, the carrier battles of Coral Sea and Midway did not take place for 5 months.

As I have suggested, the Japanese initially had military superiority.

1. 1.7 million men in the army,

2. America…290,000.

3. The Japanese Navy had 5 Carriers in the Pacific,

4. America, 3

5. Japan had more battleships, submarines, destroyers, cruisers, transport ships, more and better aircraft.

   

But the US had things the Japanese didn’t:

1. Better air combat tactics, innovated by a single man, pilot John S Thach.

2. Naval radar

3. Luck

4. Industrial capacity

5. Resources critical for military production and deployment

If Global Firepower which offers internet assessments of national military power, apparently funded by American defense industries—had been around in 1941, it would have rated Japan “strongest” in the Pacific.

Numbers can be misleading in defining military power.

Admiral Yamamoto knew that. He was of the opinion that Japan, whatever its successes early on would always lose in the end. But the rest of the Japanese high command disagreed.

They believed implicitly in Japanese superiority. After all, just 36 years before, the Japanese had defeated a larger Russian fleet at Tsushima. The Japanese were an “exceptional” race.

Tokyo had its own schematic narrative template for history-- and therefore got the future. History is like a box. It can be open or shut. If you are luck you get to look outside it.

Svechin

Putin is often called “overcautious” and a “gradualist”, both of which might be true – but neither characteristic is a negative in a strategic thinker who looks far ahead into the future at the big picture. Rather, they are virtues.

As I said last time, Russian strategy follows Svechin’s dictum that military actions must be commensurate with political goals and political goals must align with military capabilities. They are really two side of the same coin.

The Russian military is now superior in:

• long range strike capabilities, both nuclear and non-nuclear

• integrated, networked, long range air defenses, including hypersonics

• electronic warfare

• drone technologies

• anti-stealth technologies

• submarine technology

• fast littoral and naval ballistic missile launch systems

• integrated networked radar systems

• artillery

• tanks,

• ROFARS (photonic detection systems)

• anti-satellite systems

That’s a partial list.

Most important of all is industrial capacity, growing every month.

The US by contrast invests heavily in hitech systems which are complex, costly and take such a long time to develop that they are obsolete by the time the bugs are worked out .

In addition, the US is committed to projecting power globally with about 800 bases in 80 countries with vulnerable supply chains. The US has 11 carriers but typically employs 2 or 3 at a time.

The F35 is about 50% operable and its “stealthiness” is only available fair weather conditions—immediately after maintenance. In other words, its effectiveness is dependent on optimum conditions. This is the case for almost all US weapons system, which limits applicability.

A good example is the Abrams tank, which is too heavy for use in Ukraine, lacks an autoloader, needs constant maintenance and is vulnerable to drones.

The military don’t even understand geography.

The last war plan I saw was a massive attack with 5000 tomahawks. A few problems with that 2023 plan. One, inventory. They probably have 3000 available and they would have to keep some in reserve for use against other enemies, like China. Each tomahawk takes 2 years to build. They are vulnerable to interception.

The Russian equivalent— the Kalibr- is manufactured at a rate of 30 to 50 a month.

A massive strike on Russia could provoke a nuclear response under Putin’s new nuclear response policy. Even a non-nuclear response with Sarmat or Oreshnik on the Washington, New York or Los Angeles could be devastating.

Dumb and dumber

The American problem is Group Think—the Stupidity Paradox, if you like. That was also the problem with the Japanese in WWII. They were equally intelligent and stupid.

Russia could defeat NATO in a week if it wanted. NATO bases have no defenses against their weaponry if they go all out.

But why bother? To what end?

For the Russians, Europe, like the US is destroying itself. As Napoleon said, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. And the West is making every possible mistake.

Putin grew up watching the USSR collapse. He understands the process, although it is not the same for Europe as it was for the Soviet Union.

Strategically speaking, he knows that while he could wipe out the Taurus factory in Germany with a single missile, that would serve the purposes of the Western Collective in convincing their populations that Russia was a real threat. It is not a valid argument but it would accelerate the development of fascism in the West.

Instead, it is far better to act strategically and take control of all of Ukraine and denazify it, right to the Polish border—and also take control of the Sulwaki Corridor to Kalingrad. The Baltics need a lesson in good manners.

In any case, as the US falls further and further behind de-industrializing itself through financialization and Idiot Economics, Russia’s power expands.

The US is still powerful but with 700 bases in 80 countries, it is spread thin and over-extended. A dinosaur. Large and fat but it’s teeth are worn down and falling out,

Coffee time

Tomorrow is the end of the month. Please buy me a coffee, I am an endangered species. Click here or on the graphic.

And don’t forget Ichi and Chappy’s birthday!

!