WWIII to prevent WWIII?

You will see numerous media reports that Iran is not really going to launch a major missile strike on Israel, destroying facilities such as airbases, arms depots, missile launchers or other asset– that despite Iran's previous strike, which was in effect a warning to Israel and US not to escalate, as of course they have just done.

These media reports really emanate from the Department of State . The US is trying to convince Iran that their response to Israel's assassination of Haniyeh should be "proportionate"—which would mean an assassination.

But in that case who would the target be?

Netanyahu? I am sure that many in the Israeli intelligence and defense community would welcome Netanyahu gone. But they are tasked with defending him and if they fail in this they have to do something.

In addition they not running the government--that’s a bunch of right-wing Zionist crazies with Masada complexes — who unfortunately represent a majority of the Israeli population.

Taking out Netanyahu-- or anybody with any degree of status in Israel -- would therefore be an excuse for a major Israeli attack—despite indirectly implying military weakness. Assassinations, like terrorism, are usually undertaken when a country does not have the wherewithal for direct confrontation.

In in the event of proportionate” response of almost any kind, AIPAC will still demand extreme action from the US government-- a military strike on Iran-- perhaps to take out Iran's spiritual leader, Khamenei or against nuclear facilities. I'm sure that the mainstream media have storyboards prepared already.

The US is in election mode and both Harris and Trump are competing to see who is most pro-Zionist! And Biden is in La-La Land.

So World War III— to prevent World War III could really happen.

Could happen – but won't!

A full-scale war with Iran would be an economic disaster for the US, already teetering on the edge of economic collapse. “Wherewithal”? The US doesn’t have it. It’s military might is optimized for a 20th Century war — not a 21st Century one.

Massive US casualties with US bases destroyed and carriers sunk wouldn't go over well with the electorate. People so far don’t question the System — but they will start when it affects them directly!

As in body bags and coffins.

What the US needs is actuality – not the virtual reality it currently lives in.

And that can only come from Iran demonstrating military power—showing that the balance of power has changed.

It’s MAD again — just without nuclear weapons.

The intelligence community in the US knows that Iran has been quietly building its military capabilities over the years--and can destroy Israel pretty much overnight if it wants to-- along with severely damaging US bases and naval assets.

Iran would take hits in the process-- but the Iranians have shown in the past they can take it and come back even stronger. That should have been the lesson of the Iran-Iraq War—among other things, a proxy war for the Americans—which cost as many as a million Iraqi and Iranian casualties . (I wonder if Zelensky recalls what happened to Saddam?)

American Borg

Unfortunately, the US intelligence community has been so politicized, that they cannot speak truth to power. American Borg. They have been assimilated.

That has been the case since 1945 and has led to one military failure after another-- from Korea to Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan—not to ,mention, Libya and Syria and the Ukraine.

Intelligence analysts these days are like journalists. To keep their jobs, they must report a narrative handed down from above-- and ignore logic reason and the facts. It is institutional failure. Resistance is futile.

Iran is taking its time.

Without a doubt it is using this time to arm its allies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq with better weapons. At the same time, is installing and learning to operate Russian air defense and EW systems-- to deal with inevitable Israeli or American attacks. Then too, its newest generation missiles are just now coming off the production lines.

The pressure is clearly taking its toll on the Americans and Israelis, causing ever more erratic behavior.

Changing Assumptions

Nothing changes in the Middle East as long as the US and Israel assume that the balance of power favors them.

So, Iran must demonstrate that is not the case —not anymore. They have the power: the US doesn’t—and ultimately the US knows it.

In reality, a major strike doing real damage to Israel's military capabilities could only provoke war between Iran and the US if the US were able to accept the high probability of military defeat and economic collapse.

Fortunately, Iran will try to avoid civilian casualties—as Putin has requested.

As long as the Iranians can do this, there is some wiggle room for the US-- which can then accept mediation by the Russians or Chinese for Iran while acting as a mediator for Israel. Pretending to be a player.

This situation could actually be a plus for a new president. “See I stopped World War III!”

Iran has had to accept being bullied for a long time— but not any longer. It will stand up for itself.

In my last article, the Zen of Vladimir Putin ,I pointed out that Putin took up Judo to deal with bullies.

The bully – a big guy --grabs you and spits in your face. You spit back? Then he is going to hit you. Rather you throw him and he hits the pavement hard. You put on a chokehold while he still dazed. He blacks out. Chances are he's going to stop trying to bully you. He won't like you. But he will avoid further humiliation.

Bullies are cowards. They try to push you around when they think they have power. Take away their confidence in their power and everything changes.

Next week’s special report

In this next special report, I try to explain the problems we face now, with the decline of the US. Most of these are systemic—the kind of things most people don’t want to think about — because they are feel powerless to change them. “Democracy” isn’t “democratic”. “Financialization” is a Ponzi scheme. Whatever happened to FDR’s Four Freedoms? Is there hope? Do we really lack power.

I think change can happen.

I have one draft finished. Buit I need to incorporate some new material from Michael Hudson.

I should be mailing towards the end of next week — just before Chappy is due to take up residence with me.

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