Zelensky & Trump: Lovers' Spat

Tell me it aint so Donnie

This is a recent video voiceover I did for SouthFront.

As you can see from the title, it highlights Zelensky’s quarrel with Trump– which, as of yesterday’s post has been resolved —with Zelensky genuflecting, kissing the ring, bending over and signing away what amounts to all of Ukraine’s assets – agricultural land, minerals, oil and gas— and most important of all – ports like Odessa, which has a strategic position on the Black Sea—in exchange for continued military support.

This fits what passes for “strategy” in the the West—and is long-standing strategy that predates Trump, as Jeffry Sachs says.

Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are important .

The Black Sea Strategy

...this project began in earnest in 1994, and we have had a continuity of government policy for 30 years until maybe yesterday, perhaps. A thirty-year project. Ukraine and Georgia were the keys to the project. Why? Because America learned everything it knows from the British.

We are the wannabe British Empire. And what the British Empire understood in 1853, with Mr. Palmerston, excuse me, Lord Palmerston [together with Napoleon III], is that you surround Russia in the Black Sea, and you deny Russia access to the Eastern Mediterranean. What you’re watching is an American project to do the same in the 21st century. The US idea was that there would be Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia all in NATO, that would deprive Russia of any international status by blocking the Black Sea and essentially by neutralizing Russia as little more than a local power. Brzezinski is clear about this geography.

After Palmerston and before Brzezinski, there was of course Halford Mackinder in 1904: “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World- Island; Who rules the World-Island commands the world.”

Trump — some old, same old

The notion that Trump has broken with past is clearly wrong.

The Western media— both MSM and Alt— doesn’t see this.

Their eyes are on rare metals. But the biggest deposits are in Russian Ukraine and also technically expensive to extract – except using new technologies developed for this purpose, which nobody but the Russians possess.

As I mentioned in the last article, the Russians are never going to let the Americans control pretty much any part of Ukraine which has any value.

But especially not ports on the Black Sea like Odessa, for the reasons that Sachs mentions.—and, right now, tactical reasons.

Already, they have enough trouble with American ISR assets, as you saw in the Southfront video – aircraft, drones, and satellites over the Black Sea.

Why not declare a no-fly zone?

To do that the Russians would need to take Odessa and Mykolaiv and the rest of Kherson. But they would first need to fully liberate the DPR and LPR and Zaporozhye, which will means grinding down the UAF even further and cutting its logistics lines to the Black Sea coast.

Full scale siege is not likely. Mariupol showed how costly it is to take a big city.

In any case, it could take more than 6 months at the present rate of advance, just to get in position .

As you can see from the map above, controlling Odessa solves just half of the Russians’ ISR problem – just surveillance aircraft in the south. To the north, ISR is conducted by AWACS aircraft also in NATO airspace. Of course satellites cover the whole region.

NATO probably supposes A No Fly Zone over the Black Sea would not affect AWACS operations in Polish or Romanian skies – because of the distance which they no doubt think renders interception difficult. Maybe that used to be the case before the Russians destroyed almost all of Ukraine’s air defense.

Satellites? Hard to take down despite the capabilities of the S400? Now Russia has the S500, which is more than capable.

So why doesn’t Russia just stop messing around and shoot down some aircraft and satellites?

After all, that would be self-defense under international law . And according to commonsense.

Remember the rat

But remember that cornered rat in the last post?

Young Volodya no doubt had a stick – but for a really big, rabid rat you need a really BIG club! And even then, the rat is dangerous. One must consider whether it is worth the effort.

Right now American ISR mainly supports UAF terrorist attacks on Russian civilians and civilian infrastructure. These attacks have no military significance but they serve to inflame public opinion in Russia which is increasingly anti-Western. For a long time, as Sachs has noted, the Russians thought of themselves as “European”.

Not anymore.

Public opinion has shifted. Hardened. The Great Patriotic War ingrained a hatred of fascism.

Where have all the Fascists gone?

Gone to Washington every one.

There is less and less room for compromise in Russia, despite Putin’s respectful language with the Americans. He understands that for the Americans, words mean little . What you say today, can be forgotten tomorrow.

So, Putin talks up “negotiations” on the subject of the continued existence of Ukraine --without actually committing to anything like Ukraine continuing in any form resembling the rogue state it has become— in which case “negotiation” does not mean agreement or even compromise. Sure, there can be a “Ukraine”. But not necessarily a sovereign nation.

It is not in the national interest of Russia to allow Ukraine to go on as it is – or was. Ten years of violence have proven that. On the other hand, it is Putin’s interest to keep the Americans engaged and talking diplomatically despite public pressures to be more aggressive. .

Therefore -- no ceasefire. The war will progress to its ultimate conclusion.

And while it moves forward, the gap between Russia and the US in terms of military capability will continue to widen in Russia’s favor —while at the same time Trump is likely to self-destruct as not, now talking of 150% tariffs on BRICS countries not worshipping, the Dollar God.

How to alienate the entire world?

Russia: military superiority

Oreshnik missiles are now being mass-produced in Russia for both Pacific and European theaters.

Long range S500s are also being mass produced, with the first batteries operational in Crimea and Moscow.

The new R37M AAM is available too – it’s hypersonic and has an extended range of 400 km, launchable from both the MIG31 and the upgraded Su57, the latter finally fully operational with new engines, enhanced stealth, longer range, and an updated sensor suite.

Among other things, the S500 can take out US ISR satellites.

However, these capabilities will not really be in place until later this year. So best to keep the Americans talking, talking, talking. Trump loves to talk.

The Worst Case Scenario

This scenario is very unlikely.

But….

What if Russia gives the US an ultimatum to cease and desist from allowing its intel to be used to attack Russia?

If it formally declares that American actions are acts of war, Russia has a legitimate right to respond in self defense under international law. This declaration would be first “back channel” of course.

If the “cease and desist” request was not complied with, then it would become a matter of public record and shit hits the fan.

Then, If the US did not comply, the Russians might shoot down an AWACS aircraft as a demonstration,

If the Americans tried to “man up” the Russians would take down any AWACS aircraft threatening them – AND the satellites—and any combat aircraft heading in its direction while simultaneously threatening Oreshnik strikes on US bases, not only in Eastern Europe but in the rest of Europe and the UK.

The US would be smart to back down – very quickly. Suddenly, Trump might demonstrate an uncharacteristic lucidity.

Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully. Samuel Johnson (my Great-great-great grandpa’s old friend)

The US, however, would probably not look outside its cell to see the scaffold or the noose.

It is like a rabid rat, incapable of conceiving its end

Therefore Russia will avoid confrontation and escalation as far as it can. Maybe try to trap the mouse with a little cheese.

Cheese? Rare earths and metals? A compromise somewhen, somewhere in another universe. Whatever….

As I said, the drone strikes on its civilian centers have little or no military significance other than to turn the entire population of Russia against the US and Europe. Years of propaganda down the drain! 150 million people unified.

Let us hope the Americans, 300 million people divided, realize the seriousness of their situation.

Chappy goes to the doctor

According to the doctor the Mansoni Worm is acquired from eating snakes, lizards and frogs.

Please avoid those delicacies. No frog sushi.

This tapeworm is very, very difficult to get rid of in cats.

On the other hand, it is not contagious and mostly benign in the short term.

But you have to treat it eventually. That means a worm medicine at 6x normal strength! The doctor thinks that maybe the previous treatments (7 in total) didn’t work because the vets used dosages that were too weak, fearing compromising his internal organs.

So now I am studying worm treatments. To those who sent suggestions for treatment— thank you! Advice helps!

Buying coffees helps me pay for the treatment. Chappy and Ichi thank you for that.

Click here!