AFRICOM: War With Niger?

All eyes on the Sahel

Will there be war in the Sahel?  AFRICOM—that’s the US, against Niger—and therefore against Mali and Burkina Faso?   

I think not.

AFRICOM was set up to create partnerships with African comprador military elites – providing weapons and training – and creating empire-friendly proxy forces, to institutionalize American values and therefore policy at the social, political and economic levels. 

Since Vietnam, the American public has been casualty averse.  So, the US doesn’t want to get its hand bloody all it by itself    Therefore it loves it coalitions and proxies.

Even Libya was really a proxy war – Libyan rebels seeking power – backed up by NATO – that is the US, Europe and Canada – but no need for their boots on the ground.     Libya’s location was convenient making--made it possible to destroy Gadaffi’s defenses from the air—and leaving it up to the rebels to do the dirty work.

In war, it’s location, location, location.   And Libya was right across the water from France and Italy and Cyprus. In the right neighborhood.

That said, Gadaffi could not have been overthrown as he was if Russia had not stood on the sidelines.  Then President Medvedev was an “Atlanticist”. He changed course afterwards -- but at that time, he wanted to court the West.

Putin, who some say had planned to retire if Medvedev was up to the job was horrified at the outcome and returned to take control – just in time for the Ukraine crisis.  He was aware that the US and its allies would take advantage of any signs of weakness to divide and conquer. Libya had taught him that.

Putin’s recent comment that had he been in power in 2011, Gadaffi would still be alive is both a sign of regret – and a warning to the West that Russia will never permit another Libyan-type regime change, if it can help it.      

He demonstrated this resolve In Syria where the Americans were encouraging head-cutting jihadist crazies to overthrow an elected Syrian government --with NATO support arming extremists of all kinds.  Russia stymied that effort – and the US occupied Eastern Syria to steal oil and support jihadists such as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and their ilk.  One should keep in mind that “elected” does not necessarily mean democratic.  That applies in most of Africa – if not to the US itself.   

But things have changed – most especially in the world’s most resource rich continent—and its poorest – Africa -- long under the thumb of the West.  

From the Western point of view, the natives are restless, and something has to be done.  Right now – in Niger.  But Libya cannot easily be a staging ground for attacks across the Sahel.

Russia now has bases in Libya, supporting the Tobruk government of Haftar Khalil, which is also backed by Egypt and the UAE.  Wagner is there too.  Despite the problems with Prigozhin, Putin did not throw out the baby with the bathwater, demon baby or not.

Aircraft carriers?

The Sahara is no place to park an aircraft carrier.   And the US has no real bases there.

There just too many problems for AFRICOM to get directly involved.

For example, no one knows what kind of Russian air defenses or how many, if any are available in the Sahel.  No one know exactly where Wagner is but wherever it is, it operates fully equipped.

Should the US want to attack Niger from the Atlantic side, its aircraft would have to avoid overlying Mali and Burkina Faso, to avoid losses.  Of course, it’s air assets could overfly Nigeria or even use Nigerian bases but not without risk.

In addition, the main US base in Niger is a drone base with about 1000 personnel.  They are effectively hostages.  There is a French base with 1500 troops but outnumbered.

You can see why the Americans would not want any kind of direct involvement.

Accordingly, the Americans have not declared a coup in Niger which by American law would require cutting off all aid to the country and threaten the continued existence of its drone base.

As a result, the White House sent Vicky Nuland to “engage” with Black Africa--, reportedly infuriating the French.  Vicky may, in her heart of hearts, or whatever pumps blood in her chest, love juntas and coups—but the Nigerien Junta while US trained—is the wrong kind – populist and pro-Russian. 

They know American tricks—and they are playing hardball—just as they have been taught, Their demands are simple. The French must leave. President Bazoum must be tried for corruption.  And the US has to get its proxies off their backs.

The US and France complain that Bazoum cannot get a fair trial. 

How do you spell “Assange”?

In any case, the US is playing Good Cop— France, Bad Cop—and both are pressuring their compradors in ECOWAS, particularly in Nigeria, the Ivory Coast and Senegal to war.  

Let us keep in mind that in Central Africa it is France and Europe that will suffer economically. As we have seen from the Ukraine War, the US is happy to beggar, if not bugger the Europeans if it furthers its geopolitical vision. This also applies to Africa.

Since Jet doesn’t care for coffee, he gets other stuff. He’s getting older, 18 going on 19. Like many cats his kidneys are not to great. So I give him Chinese herbal medicines (tinctures) - - such as cordyceps which helps kidney function, among other things. Also reishi . In Japan, when you go to the doctor, they are likely as not to prescribe Chinese medicines as Western ones. I take them regularly myself. They don’t taste all that good but you can add them to coffee in the morning. While I am 77, I only feel 100….LOL. Maybe I should rename by website, www.ageinyoung com. www.ageingold.com.

And Jet is surviving much better than the Vet expected! Click above to keep him in Chinese medicine.

Many thanks to all those who responded to my recent post with coffees. I was feeling a little down since the number of new subscribers on my newsletter is down.