Andrei Martyanov and Power
"He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it" (Dune)
Andrei Speaks
Alex speaks from the POV of how NATO people think, that is the problem, because--this is the thinking from the XX century school of geopolitics, which ignores completely a simple XXI century fact that Russia can sink ANY combination of the NATO Fleets, including any number of the US Navy's Carrier Battle Groups from Gibraltar to Bosporus and NATO can do nothing about it. Zero, zilch. Combined West is simply stuck in the 1980-90s military thinking and technology.
A single frigate of Gorshkov-class with a single pr. 885 Yasen-class SSGN can, in a single salvo of 4 3M22Zircon each destroy two US Navy Carrier Battle Groups--none of those CBGs will know what hit them. Moreover, what is also missing from this outdated POV is the fact of a term which Vladimir Putin and Russian military professionals saying about Oreshnik--read attentively--it is a HIGH PRECISION weapons. That means that Oreshnik's hypersonic maneuvering blocks with the range of 5,500 kilometers can hit any types of targets on the land or in the sea. NATO navies, including US Navy's CBG can huff and puff, can simulate Alfa-strikes but all this is for naught because since roughly 2018 there is no NATO "lake" in Med with or without Russian bases there, because all of those navies are nothing more than fat prestigious defenseless targets. What matters the most, those who are not completely brainwashed in NATO navies know this. And this is why any attempt to sabotage Russian commercial activity supported by Russian Armed Forces can start with the demonstration of sinking some Euro-chihuahua ship, say French or Spanish FFG as a warning
I know that Martyanov is often criticized for his acerbic, in your face style.
Personally, I find it refreshing and I noticed that some others recently— such as Yves Smith (Susan Webber), who graduated from my old school whose PhD program was not to my taste-- Harvard-- seem to be trying to do something similar, that is trying to sound less ‘academic”, less “Wall Street”. I like it when she does that too. And if you haven’t visited her site, you should. She’s very good.
Guess, I am saying that I like the trend towards people writing like people talk. Communication is not just syntax — it is voice.
Andrei Martyanov was doing what he does before the trend towards “natural communication” began….. Today, he’s just what he has always been — Andrei…thank god.
The US Military Stuck in the past
To return to his piece, on Russian power, he is exactly right about the US military stuck in the past. I like his quote from Dune: "He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it" and also his sense of historical perspective.
However, it is not just the US military who look backwards to the 20th Century — it is most of the Western public. .
You can blame Hollywood with all its movies and TV programs about American heroes winning the war against the Nazis and their ilk. Tanks in Europe. And fighter aircraft and bombers. In the Pacific— aircraft carriers. Hooyah!
Oh…and Rambo.
Yes, this was shot in Canada, not so far from my home.
So now the US has the world’s best, biggest, baddest WWII military, ready for WWII Season 2. I mean, why not? Gladiator 2 is out.
Oh…my bad….sorry—WWII -Season 2 has been cancelled.
The new show is WWIII —fought first with economic weapons, the mass media, and then with proxies, which hark back not so much to WWII but to the American War of Independence and the British use of Hessians. It is a little harder to make a series of this — but the US is doing what it can. A writer’s strike delayed things.
Strikes not withstanding, it is difficult to get agreement on story lines in writers’ meetings since the US has lost every war since 1950.
I was in Laos during it’s Secret War in which the Americans dropped more bombs on this tiny, peaceful country than they dropped in all of WWII. American, as you remember, lost in Laos, Cambodia (which it did not engage directly) and Vietnam.
After Vietnam, America did not give up bombing willy-nilly but it expanded its use of proxies. It had lost 58, 000 KIA – over a 20 year period.
The Russians have probably lost about that many in two years; the Western Ukrainians, anywhere from 300,000 to one million, depending on who you talk to. It is very clear that the Americans want to defend “freedom” with someone else’s sacrifice. So you are not going to see American troops going toe to toe with the Russians, Iranians, or Chinese anytime soon. Nor will the “rocket’s red glare” be nuclear.
American resolve withered and turned into public rebellion during the course of the Vietnam War. Russi’s resolve has strengthened – and the Russian public wants results – which is one reason why the “Ukraine”— as it used to be known— will revert to what it was before WWI—Russian territory.
It is not just Russian soldiers who have become battle-hardened, it is Russian society, including government.
So it is that Russia has built up a military power second-to-none, which could take on all of NATO and the US and win, unless the US were to try to fall back on nuclear weapons – which is unlikely.
Not that Russia wants war. It is intent on building economic and industrial self-sufficiency, stamping out institutional corruption, reforming the educational system developing communications and transportation infrastructure, improving healthcare and the like. It does not desire empire - just autonomy.
Andrei’s take on the Duran
The Duran, as Andrei says, is looking backwards in time – as indeed, the Media in general are.
That affects their judgment.
The Two Alex’s think that Russia has lost in Syria and now Turkey has “leverage”.
That is also a 20th Century analysis in a 21st Century world.
Mercouris says that satellite photos show Russians withdrawing S400s from its airbase in Syria. I looked at the video. I see huge aircraft on the tarmac, which are used to bring in weaponry and ammunition but also to take some systems back to Russia for update and service. Nothing special, in other words. No smoking gun — or smoking missile here. I can’t see them loading S400s.
The video work was provided by Maxar — the same folks whose videos — later analyzed and alleged to be doctored — “proved” the Russians had massacred civilians in Bucha, a claim long since debunked by many sources including eye witness reports.
Maxar is well-integrated in the US defense establishment.
That is not to say, that the Russians might not remove their S400 systems if they evacuate — but they would keep them until evacuation of their men and materiel were mostly complete. The systems are highly mobile and easily loaded on An124 cargo planes.
The Russians, however, are evacating some bases outside Latakia— consolidating their forces strategically on the coast — apparently protected by Julani’s forces from the assorted Islamic crazies and Ukrainian and Central Asian mercenaries that Turkey put together with CIA help.
Russia bliterated 2000 rebels in a week and half before Assad left—which of course won them no love from the rebels —but a lot of respect.
If, in fact, Russia is loading military equipment on cargo planes, it is not necessarily S400 systems — it has removed a lot of hardware — AD systems and more from other bases in Syria and might want to send them back to Russia.
Its two bases on the Mediterranean are more than adequately defended.
Maybe they do want to ditch the bases— unless the Turks and new Syrian government make it worth their while to stay —but it too early to say.
Leverage, humiliation and…?
Julani needs the Russians in Syria as a hedge against the Turks – who (naturally) no one trusts – and the Israelis, who are equally untrustworthy – as well, possibly dissidents in the force assembled by Turkey for the invasion.
In other words, the 59 year lease for the Russian bases will remain in place. Whether or not the Russians feel the expense of operating the bases is worth it is another matter.
The Duran also repeated the British media’s litany about Russia’s “humiliation” and is Turkey’s “leverage” over Moscow — qualifying the narrative without actually rebutting it. ?
Really, however, it is Russia that has leverage because Turkey needs Russian economic support— as well as diplomatic if not military support. Erdogan cannot trust his “American friends” who, after all, tried to kill him. No one, including liberal Israelis, can trust the Zionists. You cannot trust the US – any agreement fwith them is written on dissolving paper.
Another way of seeing this is subtle — the Russians don’t really need those bases in Western Syria (as Andrei says) . But HTS needs them there. And so to do the Turks really.And since they may also provide a route for arms to flow to Hezbollah, which means Iran needs them.
That adds up to leverage.
Ichi and Chappy….
It’s been a rough week. Ichi was hiding most of the time. Chappy too.
Today, Ichi came out to help me work and was as usual, finally eating— and drinking water from the sink like usual— and talking a lot.
Chappy continued hiding. He comes out at night. I expect it will take another week or two before he and Ichi can form a “relationship”.
However, Chappy is so athletic and fast I need to buy a pet door to make sure he can’t get into the kitchen which is near the door to the apartment! This cat can literally fly! I have to be really careful going in and out. Of course, he has been microchipped.
The Special Article is coming along.
I am researching Xi Jinping right now and I see similarities in mentality between him and Putin, despite them both being “originals”.
There are no real explanations for such originality in Western psychology or psychiatry—but there are explanations. Or so I think.
The Special Article is now about 3000 words. I am hoping to keep it under 4000 — although that probably means 5000.
I am currently also replying individually to all my recent coffee buyers. Thank you soooooo much for your messages of advice and support. You inspire me.
The other side of the coin is that the USofA, as long as the money lasts, can destroy entire countries using the three Bs - Bribery Blackmail and Bullying and lawfare. Rumania, Moldova, Armenia but probably not Georgia are just the latest.
Any country without a strong Foreign agents' law and with easily bribeable judges are sitting ducks.
I like reading Andrie's books but listening to him, for me is impossible. I find his English so poor that I get a headache trying to take him in.
He is an arrogant piece of work but spot on with his analysis, which has also been corroborated by serious American analysts, of whom I can no longer count Colonel Douglas MacGregor as one. Listening to is analysis on the Mid East most times I find appalling.
I have always believed in the superior capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and any who doubt it are asking for serious trouble. I also admire President Putin's restraint considering the US provocations towards Russia would drive even the most honorable and strong-willed leaders to have at least hit one US ship by now, sending the US into a complete panic.
Look at what the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea. The US can hit all the land targets they want but somehow the Houthis, like Hamas, are very much still at it and making things even worse for the US Navy there...
I suspect that Trump will be no better than Biden since his only real attribute is his capability at bullying people, which I doubt President Putin will put up with.