I like reading Andrie's books but listening to him, for me is impossible. I find his English so poor that I get a headache trying to take him in.
He is an arrogant piece of work but spot on with his analysis, which has also been corroborated by serious American analysts, of whom I can no longer count Colonel Douglas MacGregor as one. Listening to is analysis on the Mid East most times I find appalling.
I have always believed in the superior capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and any who doubt it are asking for serious trouble. I also admire President Putin's restraint considering the US provocations towards Russia would drive even the most honorable and strong-willed leaders to have at least hit one US ship by now, sending the US into a complete panic.
Look at what the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea. The US can hit all the land targets they want but somehow the Houthis, like Hamas, are very much still at it and making things even worse for the US Navy there...
I suspect that Trump will be no better than Biden since his only real attribute is his capability at bullying people, which I doubt President Putin will put up with.
I am not sure whether its' "arrogance" exactly -- but I find it entertaining. You're right about his English. But I live in Japan so....I'm used to much WORSE! The RUF has had its problems -- but the SMO has forced it to reform and streamline, get rid of inefficiencies -- and also corruption. The longer the war, the better Russia's military gets.
"I can no longer count Colonel Douglas MacGregor as one"
Doug's constant recitation of his love for Israel is a real turnoff and weakens his analysis.
The creepy Zionists who pollute that patch of desert deserve nothing but our contempt.
I think both the U$ and Izzyreal have really stepped in it this time. I have sympathy for the poor souls who just want to live there. Re Trump? New boss same as the old boss. I would guess that by the time I left high school I probably consumed more books than Trump has read in his life. Chasing skirt and working to get on the society pages of the NY Post is a full time job. The dust-up in Ukraine is one more argument for the Soviets to have kept their "union" together. Oh well...bigly sad.
It seems as if Danny Davis has a soft spot for Israel also. They both say they deplore the genocide but express the hope that Israel will survive. Why? It is full of irredeemably soulless and heartless people who are enthusiastically killing off their neighbors.
> The video work was provided by Maxar — the same folks whose videos — later analyzed and alleged to be doctored — “proved” the Russians had massacred civilians in Bucha, ...
The same folks who suddenly see only thick clouds over Yuzhmash ?
By the way, I follow Andrei Martyanov for almost three years now.
And I'm ok with his outspoken and somewhat "abrasive" style.
When not in agreement, I rather trust him than the Duran.
The latter have too much "places" they not dare to venture.
Either because of YT censorship, or thinking barriers ...
Exactly . Maxar did the video work for Yuzhmash. I didn't find THAT out until after I posted the article. I have been following him since the Saker (who I greatly miss). Not sure why but the Duran has been "off" a lot these days.
> Not sure why but the Duran has been "off" a lot these days.
I would think because they are too deep into the "Western democracy" mindset. An early childhood "education" (read "indoctrination") usually achieves that. As I see it, an emotional attachment to certain trigger words, associated connotations, and related emotions. Which makes it very hard to overcome it as an adult.
Mind you, Alexander was in Hungary lately, meeting with government officials, and regularly converses with academics like Glen Diesen. Which IMHO means he is still partially captured by the Western liberal mindset. I don't think he is dishonest, just unable to think certain thoughts, and see certain things.
"When not in agreement, I rather trust him than the Duran".
It's wisest to trust each source in regard to what they know and understand. I would prefer Mr Martyanov's take about anything military or STEM, or, of course, Russian; the Duran's for finance, business, law, government, diplomacy, etc.
'Don't believe anything. Regard things on a scale of probabilities. The things that seem most absurd, put under 'Low Probability', and the things that seem most plausible, you put under 'High Probability'. Never believe anything. Once you believe anything, you stop thinking about it'.
Good quote from Wilson. Mercouris is a lawyer, and thinks like one. I have a lot of lawyers and two supreme court judges in my family and get the cognitive styles. There are kinds -- litigators and the way they think. And solicitor / barristers who tend to be good at negotiation and compromise. Good litigators are very rare BTW.They have a special kind of giftedness.
Russia is living proof that battle-tested builds character. You learn more from struggling with setbacks and losses than sitting on your derriere and having everything you need handed to you as Americans are learning.
All that gives Americans is a big, fat derriere and chronic heart disease.
There are many dimensions to modern conflict. There are many ways to destroy a thing. You can destroy by capturing a nation's economy with debt and sanctions. You can destroy a nation by financing and penetrating it with opposition groups via NGOs. You can destroy it by stoking ethnic, religious, or cultural divisions. You can destroy it by buying off elites and turning them into compradors. You can corrupt with blackmail, payoffs and perks. You can destroy a nation through the media by planting lies and false narratives to confuse and fracture the populace. And finally you can crudely destroy it militarily. Even if you don't "win" you can set it back decades with sheer destruction as in Korea, Vietnam and Libya. These are just a few of the many dimensions of modern war. Martyanov is one dimensional. If I can blow it up, I win. Everyone else is stupid, especially Americans--they really don't understand modern war because Chicago wasn't destroyed in WW2. In truth Russia and China's fundamental strength is not military. It is their ability to prevent the subversion, penetration and capture of their respective societies. That is the first and foremost requirement for national survival. There is someone who doesn't understand modern conflict, the dominance of The Empire and how and why it fights. And his initials are AM. I find him irritating, not for his style, but for his simple-mindedness.
Yes, I would agree Andrei is a little simplistic. So one needs to expand on his thinking a little. If you can destroy something, you can control it does not mean you have to destroy-- just have the means to do so. That's the essence of big kids bullying smaller ones. But destruction need not be military. Nor even physical. There is also Dabrowski's corollary -- there is no growth without destruction
I agree. AM exhibits a tactical point of view, not a strategic view. He thinks he, himself is a lot smarter than he is. He was and is right about the advances in missile technology and the subsequent destruction of the US vision of dominance over the rest of the world.
Then there is the matter of his mostly awful taste in music......LOL.
Im really happy you brought this subject up, Alex more so than Alexander. Seems to really want an emotional reaction from Russia. Every time Ukraine or the West provokes them. Alexander has his head buried far too much in British broadsheet newspapers for me. I tend to agree with most things they say. But those points I've mentioned are an irritant for myself. Andrei is pretty humorous but says it exactly how it is no BS. But Andrei sometimes says things. That are more wishful thinking on his part in my opinion. He's always saying "and guess what will happen if the West does this or that" I don't think he realises the West has done just about every dirty trick in the book against Russia. Except for a nuclear attack. What has Russia done to any of the worst Western offenders? Not a thing that's why they still see Russia as weak. For me personally, I feel Russia has shown strength & discipline beyond any Western thinking. Maybe Andrei might be right & Russia starts to get even after they destroy the Ukrainian military. After all there are a handful of nations not capable of defeating themselves in a battle. Who hiding behind America have been way over the top in their moves & policies against Russia. I dare say a lot of Western civilians would be glad if Russia got at these mouth pieces, then taught them a big lesson.
I thought AM's recent vile temper (post Assad) very telling as it highlights his rather adolescent character. I've stopped trying to decipher him as I got bored hearing of everyone else being "room temperature".
Macgregor spent a year telling everyone that Johnny Turk would sweep down and save the Gazans, ugh.
So you better use fastly dissolving paper to write it on...
About the High Precision of the Oreshnik...
I had posted the question of the needed micro-corrections in the end-phase of its trajectory...
(The ionised air around it is NOT transparent.)
So the target, say a Carrier on sea, steaming and being connected to Satellites that can easily see the launch and even the downward trajectory, so they can in time change course.
For that the course of warheads needs to be adapted with the new location...
As i said, there is no day that i don't have to adapt facts and probabilities...
Sander...
PS. The 3M22 Zircon Hypersonic (Mach 8-9) Scramjet Powered anti-Ship Cruise-missile is NOT ballistic, has a range of 500-1000(?) km and when it is near its target can slow down and use visual means to detect the exact position of the target and adapt its course. It flies low, cannot be seen by Satellites and can be detected only when very nearby, while it still flies at supersonic speeds (mach 5-6) then it can detect its target and adapt its course or even fly zigzag.
Thank you Sander. I looked up what you were writing about -- and it seems right on. This suite of hypersonic weaponry puts the Russians a full generation ahead. The US will never catch up.
What a mess Syria has become! Some of these players (each with their own agenda) involved in Assad's overthrow are now antagonistic against and wary of being attacked by each other.
I'm really amazed at how some analysts ignore the possibility the the US has some weapon/technology not only as capable as that of Russia or China, but perhaps even more. They have not been existentially threatened (as Russia is with Ukraine) so they have no need to show any of it; why would the reveal their most advanced weapons system? It only serves to weakened them strategically.
They might no actually have it. But to ignore the possibility all together and build and analysis based on that, it seem to me to be flawed.
The reason China is making 'in roads' in the world is because they don't destroy BUT rebuild.
I am cognizant of the fact that China might be the next Empire and who know how this will go? Eventually, I suspect that it's possible China will over-reach and the next Empire will arrive.
America is NOT 'civilized' a country that is run by Zionism is not civilized.
I like reading Andrie's books but listening to him, for me is impossible. I find his English so poor that I get a headache trying to take him in.
He is an arrogant piece of work but spot on with his analysis, which has also been corroborated by serious American analysts, of whom I can no longer count Colonel Douglas MacGregor as one. Listening to is analysis on the Mid East most times I find appalling.
I have always believed in the superior capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and any who doubt it are asking for serious trouble. I also admire President Putin's restraint considering the US provocations towards Russia would drive even the most honorable and strong-willed leaders to have at least hit one US ship by now, sending the US into a complete panic.
Look at what the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea. The US can hit all the land targets they want but somehow the Houthis, like Hamas, are very much still at it and making things even worse for the US Navy there...
I suspect that Trump will be no better than Biden since his only real attribute is his capability at bullying people, which I doubt President Putin will put up with.
I am not sure whether its' "arrogance" exactly -- but I find it entertaining. You're right about his English. But I live in Japan so....I'm used to much WORSE! The RUF has had its problems -- but the SMO has forced it to reform and streamline, get rid of inefficiencies -- and also corruption. The longer the war, the better Russia's military gets.
"I can no longer count Colonel Douglas MacGregor as one"
Doug's constant recitation of his love for Israel is a real turnoff and weakens his analysis.
The creepy Zionists who pollute that patch of desert deserve nothing but our contempt.
I think both the U$ and Izzyreal have really stepped in it this time. I have sympathy for the poor souls who just want to live there. Re Trump? New boss same as the old boss. I would guess that by the time I left high school I probably consumed more books than Trump has read in his life. Chasing skirt and working to get on the society pages of the NY Post is a full time job. The dust-up in Ukraine is one more argument for the Soviets to have kept their "union" together. Oh well...bigly sad.
I agree with you about the creepy of Doug's love for genocidaires. It makes me doubt his analysis, which anyway is usually only half right.
It seems as if Danny Davis has a soft spot for Israel also. They both say they deplore the genocide but express the hope that Israel will survive. Why? It is full of irredeemably soulless and heartless people who are enthusiastically killing off their neighbors.
> The video work was provided by Maxar — the same folks whose videos — later analyzed and alleged to be doctored — “proved” the Russians had massacred civilians in Bucha, ...
The same folks who suddenly see only thick clouds over Yuzhmash ?
By the way, I follow Andrei Martyanov for almost three years now.
And I'm ok with his outspoken and somewhat "abrasive" style.
When not in agreement, I rather trust him than the Duran.
The latter have too much "places" they not dare to venture.
Either because of YT censorship, or thinking barriers ...
Exactly . Maxar did the video work for Yuzhmash. I didn't find THAT out until after I posted the article. I have been following him since the Saker (who I greatly miss). Not sure why but the Duran has been "off" a lot these days.
> Not sure why but the Duran has been "off" a lot these days.
I would think because they are too deep into the "Western democracy" mindset. An early childhood "education" (read "indoctrination") usually achieves that. As I see it, an emotional attachment to certain trigger words, associated connotations, and related emotions. Which makes it very hard to overcome it as an adult.
Mind you, Alexander was in Hungary lately, meeting with government officials, and regularly converses with academics like Glen Diesen. Which IMHO means he is still partially captured by the Western liberal mindset. I don't think he is dishonest, just unable to think certain thoughts, and see certain things.
All this of course is my personal opinion ...
"When not in agreement, I rather trust him than the Duran".
It's wisest to trust each source in regard to what they know and understand. I would prefer Mr Martyanov's take about anything military or STEM, or, of course, Russian; the Duran's for finance, business, law, government, diplomacy, etc.
'Don't believe anything. Regard things on a scale of probabilities. The things that seem most absurd, put under 'Low Probability', and the things that seem most plausible, you put under 'High Probability'. Never believe anything. Once you believe anything, you stop thinking about it'.
- Robert Anton Wilson
Good quote from Wilson. Mercouris is a lawyer, and thinks like one. I have a lot of lawyers and two supreme court judges in my family and get the cognitive styles. There are kinds -- litigators and the way they think. And solicitor / barristers who tend to be good at negotiation and compromise. Good litigators are very rare BTW.They have a special kind of giftedness.
Agreed.
But although not military, I got a STEM education - like Martyanov.
Hard facts and falsifiable hypotheses, according to Popper's definition.
Maybe this is why Martyanov is better at predicting futuredevelopments
Russia is living proof that battle-tested builds character. You learn more from struggling with setbacks and losses than sitting on your derriere and having everything you need handed to you as Americans are learning.
All that gives Americans is a big, fat derriere and chronic heart disease.
Diabetes.
All sorts of stuff. Battle-tested does indeed build character. Guess that's why a lot of my friends are / were (a lot dead now) combat vets.
There are many dimensions to modern conflict. There are many ways to destroy a thing. You can destroy by capturing a nation's economy with debt and sanctions. You can destroy a nation by financing and penetrating it with opposition groups via NGOs. You can destroy it by stoking ethnic, religious, or cultural divisions. You can destroy it by buying off elites and turning them into compradors. You can corrupt with blackmail, payoffs and perks. You can destroy a nation through the media by planting lies and false narratives to confuse and fracture the populace. And finally you can crudely destroy it militarily. Even if you don't "win" you can set it back decades with sheer destruction as in Korea, Vietnam and Libya. These are just a few of the many dimensions of modern war. Martyanov is one dimensional. If I can blow it up, I win. Everyone else is stupid, especially Americans--they really don't understand modern war because Chicago wasn't destroyed in WW2. In truth Russia and China's fundamental strength is not military. It is their ability to prevent the subversion, penetration and capture of their respective societies. That is the first and foremost requirement for national survival. There is someone who doesn't understand modern conflict, the dominance of The Empire and how and why it fights. And his initials are AM. I find him irritating, not for his style, but for his simple-mindedness.
Yes, I would agree Andrei is a little simplistic. So one needs to expand on his thinking a little. If you can destroy something, you can control it does not mean you have to destroy-- just have the means to do so. That's the essence of big kids bullying smaller ones. But destruction need not be military. Nor even physical. There is also Dabrowski's corollary -- there is no growth without destruction
I agree. AM exhibits a tactical point of view, not a strategic view. He thinks he, himself is a lot smarter than he is. He was and is right about the advances in missile technology and the subsequent destruction of the US vision of dominance over the rest of the world.
Then there is the matter of his mostly awful taste in music......LOL.
Im really happy you brought this subject up, Alex more so than Alexander. Seems to really want an emotional reaction from Russia. Every time Ukraine or the West provokes them. Alexander has his head buried far too much in British broadsheet newspapers for me. I tend to agree with most things they say. But those points I've mentioned are an irritant for myself. Andrei is pretty humorous but says it exactly how it is no BS. But Andrei sometimes says things. That are more wishful thinking on his part in my opinion. He's always saying "and guess what will happen if the West does this or that" I don't think he realises the West has done just about every dirty trick in the book against Russia. Except for a nuclear attack. What has Russia done to any of the worst Western offenders? Not a thing that's why they still see Russia as weak. For me personally, I feel Russia has shown strength & discipline beyond any Western thinking. Maybe Andrei might be right & Russia starts to get even after they destroy the Ukrainian military. After all there are a handful of nations not capable of defeating themselves in a battle. Who hiding behind America have been way over the top in their moves & policies against Russia. I dare say a lot of Western civilians would be glad if Russia got at these mouth pieces, then taught them a big lesson.
To the point here:
How many people in the World TRUST the USA?
As a complete outsider I have only one thing to say:
As the US declines pays out money to terrorists (of which the USA/UK is one)who rely on US dollars.
Terrorists ONLY want money, just like the USA.
When USA can't pay the money what happens?
Where do the 'terrorists' go?
NO Empire survives.
In this connected world, there are no outsiders.
"Really, however, it is Russia that has leverage..."
Any lever can be operated in reverse.
Good point. Love it.
I thought AM's recent vile temper (post Assad) very telling as it highlights his rather adolescent character. I've stopped trying to decipher him as I got bored hearing of everyone else being "room temperature".
Macgregor spent a year telling everyone that Johnny Turk would sweep down and save the Gazans, ugh.
during it’s Secret War => ITS secret war, no aposotrophe
A very good analysis again Julian...
But... The Times They Are A-Changin'...
(Bob Dylan ‧ 1964)
So you better use fastly dissolving paper to write it on...
About the High Precision of the Oreshnik...
I had posted the question of the needed micro-corrections in the end-phase of its trajectory...
(The ionised air around it is NOT transparent.)
So the target, say a Carrier on sea, steaming and being connected to Satellites that can easily see the launch and even the downward trajectory, so they can in time change course.
For that the course of warheads needs to be adapted with the new location...
So...
-🖌️- O R E S H N I K - V S - C A R R I E R S -🖌️-
->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saVj3BGKWw8
As i said, there is no day that i don't have to adapt facts and probabilities...
Sander...
PS. The 3M22 Zircon Hypersonic (Mach 8-9) Scramjet Powered anti-Ship Cruise-missile is NOT ballistic, has a range of 500-1000(?) km and when it is near its target can slow down and use visual means to detect the exact position of the target and adapt its course. It flies low, cannot be seen by Satellites and can be detected only when very nearby, while it still flies at supersonic speeds (mach 5-6) then it can detect its target and adapt its course or even fly zigzag.
Thank you Sander. I looked up what you were writing about -- and it seems right on. This suite of hypersonic weaponry puts the Russians a full generation ahead. The US will never catch up.
What a mess Syria has become! Some of these players (each with their own agenda) involved in Assad's overthrow are now antagonistic against and wary of being attacked by each other.
Thanks for your analysis, Julian.
I'm really amazed at how some analysts ignore the possibility the the US has some weapon/technology not only as capable as that of Russia or China, but perhaps even more. They have not been existentially threatened (as Russia is with Ukraine) so they have no need to show any of it; why would the reveal their most advanced weapons system? It only serves to weakened them strategically.
They might no actually have it. But to ignore the possibility all together and build and analysis based on that, it seem to me to be flawed.
How many educated people do you have in the USA?
Lugman Nieto.
Maybe it has escaped your notice BUT on the whole the education system in the US is defunct.
People who work in factories to produce 'weapons' know shit!
This may be 'flawed' reasoning but.......who know a nut and a bolt and how to put them together?
The HIGHER tier of US expertise; Know this but how to they explain to dumb people?
I’d say most of the social thinking has origins from the peak of the English Empire in the 1850’s .
Ancient inspiration isn’t relevant as a real one created from our times.
Social media.
What does it mean????
Hasn’t sunk in yet to dense minds .
He who destroys must rebuild !
What’s presented in return as anyone who is practically civilized would question the need for.
So America loses in the race to be civilized .
I certainly agree with your first sentence. BRAVO
The reason China is making 'in roads' in the world is because they don't destroy BUT rebuild.
I am cognizant of the fact that China might be the next Empire and who know how this will go? Eventually, I suspect that it's possible China will over-reach and the next Empire will arrive.
America is NOT 'civilized' a country that is run by Zionism is not civilized.
Concise and to the point.
Very much so and I really like the "three Bs". How true.