I have to say, this comment section is varied and quite engaging. You know it’s a thought provoking article when you get contradictory opinions but without the toxic vitriol. This is a very enjoyable read and while I disagree with your opinions on China to a degree, I see the merit in them and was pleasantly challenged to think about it more.
Thesis, antithesis, synthesis. (Fichte, writing of Hegel). Without disagreement, our thinking cannot evolve. Or, at least, my thinking can't evolve. When I write, I often find myself disagreeing with myself.
Biden is simply a product of the American system, as are virtually all American presidents. Pride is probably the first vice of these people, but it was more or less masked by a level of culture whose degradation can be measured by comparing Roosevelt and Biden. Roosevelt was also an arrogant bastard, but he hid it behind his aristocratic WASP manners. Biden is an arrogant, hollow bastard, but no more hollow than Obama, Bush or Clinton were before him. The only difference is that, being older, he suffers from senility, and so the man's abysmal emptiness is more glaring. And the fact that one of America's two major parties is able to nominate a senile old man for the supreme election speaks volumes about the decaying state of American democratic life.
This is a very good analysis. Ultimately, US Presidents are products of the political culture -- and to the extent that the culture is flawed, they too are flawed. As you say, Obama, Bush, Clinton -- as well as Trump and Biden are indictments of the "system". Sadly, I think that the country must first devolve before it can evolve.
It is indeed probable that the United States must try to return to the founding principles of its democracy before claiming to evolve - besides, can a country that no longer has a culture conceive of an acceptable, decent project for evolution?
But isn't this decline in political mores consubstantial with elective democracy? It is said that all power corrupts, but in an elective democracy, isn't the electoral game, by its very nature, corrosive?
ROFL, the “whole nation approach”. Wow that brings back memories of the 1980’s in which it was Japan that beating the crap out of the US and would soon control all the advanced technology but then something funny happened and it’s called the internet. The US companies crushed the Japanese in all areas of tech in the 1990’s and ever since because the US has an entrepreneur approach not a Marxist “whole nation” top down approach which can not adapt to changes. The whole nation approach is easy and somewhat successful when you are playing catch-up (i.e. are copying existing tech) but fails miserably at being the vanguard. Japan learned this lesson in the 1990’s and Germany learned it in the 70’s and 80’s (another country that was supposed to beat the US and it’s free market but never did). China will never be the leader because they are run by central planners, which if you recall your history, means Marxists and they do not allow freedom of thought or exercise of new ideas thus they are poor innovators.
Wrong, Japan still has the edge in technology competition. What actually happened was an inflationary crunch with real estate that caused a massive debt bubble. Compounded on that crash was the infamous devaluation of the dollar relative to the strengthening of the Yen taking Yen from about 250-300 to a dollar to about 100-150 to a dollar which significantly undercut the massive pricing advantage Japanese goods had over American products under the Reagan administration. This is hardly secret.
You comments about China and technology, especially semiconductor is so far off the mark. China steals technology (I have direct knowledge of this) and they are many highly unethical engineers so they see no problem with it. Fortunately, President Trump woke up the west by pointing out what China was doing and fought to bring advanced manufacturing and more semiconductor tech back to the states and the west. Fortunately Biden also supports this. In regards to the US not having the engineers and expertise for this is a ludicrous argument. If the fans were here so would the engineers be as well.
From what I have seen China is still fairly far behind the US and Taiwan in advanced semiconductor technology (not 2 years). No way did they close a massive technology gap within a couple of years and moreover the West is now banned from selling them state of the art steppers etc. and no they do not have the know how to make them.
Chinese emissions being reduced by 8% isn’t saying much considering their economy was in a Covid lock down most of the year and their CO2 emissions are more than North America and Europe combined. Moreover China doesn’t even have to do anything about emissions until 2030 at the earliest when they will be emitting significantly more CO2 than today.
Another point you raise is very pertinent. Central planning and marxism. I confess to often being confused about these things. If you go to Godfree Robert's newsletter, he knows a lot more than I do. However, I tend to think that China mixes marxism and capitalism. Teh country is too big, too populous and too diverse to control, so the Party sets general goals, and then there is competition to achieve them. Or so it seems. Am I wrong?
To an extent. China has wildly inconsistent internal economic situations due to Beijing’s heavy handed controls. It isn’t as severe as Western media makes it but it isn’t the powerhouse Beijing likes to trot around. Unfortunately China has been falling into a lot of economic traps but Xi has been rather proactive in trying to tackle them. The real estate crisis has been kicked down the road but remains a very real problem. If not for the Ukraine War then China would probably be facing a production crisis too but energy has never been cheaper for them lately.
As usual, excellent and thought-provoking comments. You are quite correct - the Chinese copied a lot of technology to get to where they are now-- just as Japan did once upon a time. However in the last three years, China has topped the list of countries with new patents. US innovation is decreasing. The US was I think partially OK when China was just copying -- maybe because they didn't do it all that well. But now they are ahead of the pack. Most recently in biotech. That's threatening to the US and the want to stop it. You are also correct about the 2 year gap in semiconductor technology. The gap is wider for conventional semiconductor tech because of sanctions. No way the Chinese can catch up in that area. So there innovating new semiconductor tech, which allows them to produce new kinds of semiconductors in new ways, lead the way in photonics, graphene, and chiplets. Thank you for pointing out these discrepancies. https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/07/17/us-falling-behind-china-in-tech-advancements-govini-report-finds/
It will be interesting to see if China can really start leading in technology like Japan and S. Korea have learned to do in a limited sense or will they just continue to mostly copy and steal. A great book about the world economy and the development of the Asian Tigers is "The Commanding heights -by Daniel Yergin " it goes into details about S. Korea and how they used to steal intellectual property (IP) and had no issue with it and then they started innovating and wanted others to respect their IP so they were forced to crack down on all the illegal stuff in order to get their IP protected and move their economy to the next level. I feel China is now at that same cross roads but I suspect the CCP may not view their situation the same way since China has 20% of the worlds population and doesn't necessary have to play well with other.
Julian, I really enjoy reading your articles, keep up the good work.
Julian this was tour de force. I've read you often, but those past pieces - compared to this - seemed like analyses of others work, and I don't decry that - it amplifies and spreads the message. This time you broke new ground. I especially liked your interpretation of the Wests superciliousness in regards to China's semiconductor development.
'The West sneers at the concept of an entire nation coming together to achieve important goals. It’s Maoism they say forgetting that the Americans themselves adopted this idea during WWII. How else did the US become “the Arsenal of Democracy”.'
This had a profound effect on me. The exposition of a co-ordinated, country-wide approach beating the disparate approach of competing companies in the West, bent on profits, and cutting each others throats, is a truism that is never acknowledged there. Its name - Maoism, socialism, whatever - isn't important, the results are! This is why China's ascendancy is assured.
Anyway, you knocked it out the park with this one. It really lifted my Weekend.
Thanks so much for this. If this article was good, it is thanks to advice from my commenters, who give me a sense of perspective. When I start writing, I usually start with an idea that I pick up from news online, usually distorted in one way or another. Then I start making connections to other things and other ideas. I don't know where it leads for a while until I parse the information I have and various opinions. Eventually, I discover what the article is supposed to be about. It's writng as discovery. Most writing start with an event and a thesis about that event in place and explicate it. I can do that too. But it has its limitations. In this case, I discovered the "Whole Nation" concept. That contrasted the current political division of American society. Then I considered WWII and the unity of the US in what they thought was an existential war. That connected to the existential challenges that both Russia and China feel from the US. A key in all this is Joe Biden who to me is symptomatic of a national sickness, as it seems most presidents have been recently. Sorry, I'm ramblin'. It's Sunday here in Tokyo and hot and I haven't had my morning coffee.
That Joe Biden is a terrible president does not mean that Donald Trump was a competent one.
Trump did speak the truth about the folly of the Iraq invasion during a Republican nominee debate in South Carolina. He did that in South Carolina! His popularity surged but that statement united establishment Republicans in hatred of his success.
I am sure a second term Trump would keep up the trend of antagonizing China. Too, Trump has a way overinflated view of the quality of the US military. Trump's next cabinet will be the same shit show that his first was. I will admit the possibility that Trump is far more likely to provide some level of material benefit than any Democrat, but it will not be sufficient.
Let me close by plugging Dr. Cornel West. His call for dismantling the United States empire is unique among candidates and in no paradox, means if enacted would be the first overarching policy that puts Americans first.
Thanks for the comprehensive rap sheet on Biden. For me, adjectives like sleepy and creepy do not add any impact to the horrible set of facts that accompany President Biden. I would drop those.
Nice article, but please check your links before publishing:
- one is broken,
- a second one is not relevant to the topic and, instead, is a repetition of another link,
- a third one points to a private post of your subStack, apparently.
On a different topic, regarding American drones in Syria and Eastern Europe and Russian electronic warfare (EW)...
Just yesterday an American military reconnaissance drone crashed in the woods near the village of Trzebien, southern Poland. Apparently it was being used by U.S. soldiers for a training flight [1]. Either it was a costly mistake by the pilot(s) or possibly the Russian EW. I know the crash location is quite far away from Russia and Belarus (~600 km away from the Polish border with Belarus), however it is well known that Russian EW has a very wide range, as Cypriots and Israelis know [2]: in the past a Russian spoofer/jammer located on Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia (western Syria) interfered with civilian airplanes GPS near the airports of Larnaka (Cyprus) and Tel Aviv (Israel), this one being ~500 km away from Latakia.
I have corrected some of the links. Some links are repeated for Crooke and Johnson's articles, however, just to emphasize that these are their ideas not mine. and they should get the credit.
I noticed that you have already corrected the first one.
Regarding the second one, I do not remember or cannot find it - maybe you have fixed it in the meantime.
As for the third and last one, it is this one: "Blinken I have already written about."
I get to a blank page where I get the following message:
"You're logged in as [my e-mail address], but this page is private. Try logging in with a different email, or letting the author know they've linked to a private page."
I take Mike H's point for breaking this down to fit the attention span of the average reader, but digesting it as a whole is certainly powerful and important. Fantastic piece though a couple typos need attention before going viral to the world, which I wish it would.
To Julian's point of people not even able to run their AC's, we live in steamy-hot Florida in a 40-year-old manufactured home. We are fortunate that we had the means to upgrade to like new with energy efficient windows, AC, added insulation in the roof and walls. Our electric bill this month was $138. By contrast, our nephew in central Texas, lives in a similar sized, slightly newer vintage manufactured home with none of these upgrades. His electric bill this month was over $439. I have no idea how he can pay this with what he makes and summer has a long way to go. He certainly has no means to improve his situation--upgrading or selling and getting something better. Indeed, the growing plight of all too many across the globe.
"His narrative has no originality. Nor reality. No authenticity. And, of course, no morality."
This is simple, yet profound statement of fact, applies not only to Biden but the bipartisan war machine that pumps out its toxicity upon all that is--on the land and in the air and seas. The hubris so blatant and astounding. Far too many fellow Americans, who can only see "red" and "blue," remain mired as they are in their devotion and constant outrage against "the other." At least, slowly but surely, the rest of the world sees it and is moving away from our manipulation to forge alternatives to our hegemony. The lapdogs of Europe and (for reasons that don't compute) Australia, New Zealand, etc., all too content to allow our destruction of their own economies.
I have to say, this comment section is varied and quite engaging. You know it’s a thought provoking article when you get contradictory opinions but without the toxic vitriol. This is a very enjoyable read and while I disagree with your opinions on China to a degree, I see the merit in them and was pleasantly challenged to think about it more.
My commenters are great!
Thesis, antithesis, synthesis. (Fichte, writing of Hegel). Without disagreement, our thinking cannot evolve. Or, at least, my thinking can't evolve. When I write, I often find myself disagreeing with myself.
I found this a really well informed thought provoking and well written analysis. Thank you.
No....thank YOU!
Biden is simply a product of the American system, as are virtually all American presidents. Pride is probably the first vice of these people, but it was more or less masked by a level of culture whose degradation can be measured by comparing Roosevelt and Biden. Roosevelt was also an arrogant bastard, but he hid it behind his aristocratic WASP manners. Biden is an arrogant, hollow bastard, but no more hollow than Obama, Bush or Clinton were before him. The only difference is that, being older, he suffers from senility, and so the man's abysmal emptiness is more glaring. And the fact that one of America's two major parties is able to nominate a senile old man for the supreme election speaks volumes about the decaying state of American democratic life.
This is a very good analysis. Ultimately, US Presidents are products of the political culture -- and to the extent that the culture is flawed, they too are flawed. As you say, Obama, Bush, Clinton -- as well as Trump and Biden are indictments of the "system". Sadly, I think that the country must first devolve before it can evolve.
It is indeed probable that the United States must try to return to the founding principles of its democracy before claiming to evolve - besides, can a country that no longer has a culture conceive of an acceptable, decent project for evolution?
But isn't this decline in political mores consubstantial with elective democracy? It is said that all power corrupts, but in an elective democracy, isn't the electoral game, by its very nature, corrosive?
Thanks for such a comprehensive overview of recent events. I'm subscribing.
Thank you soooooooooo much. I really appreciate the support.
ROFL, the “whole nation approach”. Wow that brings back memories of the 1980’s in which it was Japan that beating the crap out of the US and would soon control all the advanced technology but then something funny happened and it’s called the internet. The US companies crushed the Japanese in all areas of tech in the 1990’s and ever since because the US has an entrepreneur approach not a Marxist “whole nation” top down approach which can not adapt to changes. The whole nation approach is easy and somewhat successful when you are playing catch-up (i.e. are copying existing tech) but fails miserably at being the vanguard. Japan learned this lesson in the 1990’s and Germany learned it in the 70’s and 80’s (another country that was supposed to beat the US and it’s free market but never did). China will never be the leader because they are run by central planners, which if you recall your history, means Marxists and they do not allow freedom of thought or exercise of new ideas thus they are poor innovators.
Wrong, Japan still has the edge in technology competition. What actually happened was an inflationary crunch with real estate that caused a massive debt bubble. Compounded on that crash was the infamous devaluation of the dollar relative to the strengthening of the Yen taking Yen from about 250-300 to a dollar to about 100-150 to a dollar which significantly undercut the massive pricing advantage Japanese goods had over American products under the Reagan administration. This is hardly secret.
You comments about China and technology, especially semiconductor is so far off the mark. China steals technology (I have direct knowledge of this) and they are many highly unethical engineers so they see no problem with it. Fortunately, President Trump woke up the west by pointing out what China was doing and fought to bring advanced manufacturing and more semiconductor tech back to the states and the west. Fortunately Biden also supports this. In regards to the US not having the engineers and expertise for this is a ludicrous argument. If the fans were here so would the engineers be as well.
From what I have seen China is still fairly far behind the US and Taiwan in advanced semiconductor technology (not 2 years). No way did they close a massive technology gap within a couple of years and moreover the West is now banned from selling them state of the art steppers etc. and no they do not have the know how to make them.
Chinese emissions being reduced by 8% isn’t saying much considering their economy was in a Covid lock down most of the year and their CO2 emissions are more than North America and Europe combined. Moreover China doesn’t even have to do anything about emissions until 2030 at the earliest when they will be emitting significantly more CO2 than today.
Another point you raise is very pertinent. Central planning and marxism. I confess to often being confused about these things. If you go to Godfree Robert's newsletter, he knows a lot more than I do. However, I tend to think that China mixes marxism and capitalism. Teh country is too big, too populous and too diverse to control, so the Party sets general goals, and then there is competition to achieve them. Or so it seems. Am I wrong?
To an extent. China has wildly inconsistent internal economic situations due to Beijing’s heavy handed controls. It isn’t as severe as Western media makes it but it isn’t the powerhouse Beijing likes to trot around. Unfortunately China has been falling into a lot of economic traps but Xi has been rather proactive in trying to tackle them. The real estate crisis has been kicked down the road but remains a very real problem. If not for the Ukraine War then China would probably be facing a production crisis too but energy has never been cheaper for them lately.
As usual, excellent and thought-provoking comments. You are quite correct - the Chinese copied a lot of technology to get to where they are now-- just as Japan did once upon a time. However in the last three years, China has topped the list of countries with new patents. US innovation is decreasing. The US was I think partially OK when China was just copying -- maybe because they didn't do it all that well. But now they are ahead of the pack. Most recently in biotech. That's threatening to the US and the want to stop it. You are also correct about the 2 year gap in semiconductor technology. The gap is wider for conventional semiconductor tech because of sanctions. No way the Chinese can catch up in that area. So there innovating new semiconductor tech, which allows them to produce new kinds of semiconductors in new ways, lead the way in photonics, graphene, and chiplets. Thank you for pointing out these discrepancies. https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/07/17/us-falling-behind-china-in-tech-advancements-govini-report-finds/
It will be interesting to see if China can really start leading in technology like Japan and S. Korea have learned to do in a limited sense or will they just continue to mostly copy and steal. A great book about the world economy and the development of the Asian Tigers is "The Commanding heights -by Daniel Yergin " it goes into details about S. Korea and how they used to steal intellectual property (IP) and had no issue with it and then they started innovating and wanted others to respect their IP so they were forced to crack down on all the illegal stuff in order to get their IP protected and move their economy to the next level. I feel China is now at that same cross roads but I suspect the CCP may not view their situation the same way since China has 20% of the worlds population and doesn't necessary have to play well with other.
Julian, I really enjoy reading your articles, keep up the good work.
The nature of hubris looks to have deep shortcomings these days.
Alastair Crooke is terrific.
Wonderful time we live in to see it defined by deeds of immorality.
Who would of thought it’s not just admiring yourself in the mirror?
Hubris. Pride. The greatest sin. Now elevated to virtue. ?
Julian this was tour de force. I've read you often, but those past pieces - compared to this - seemed like analyses of others work, and I don't decry that - it amplifies and spreads the message. This time you broke new ground. I especially liked your interpretation of the Wests superciliousness in regards to China's semiconductor development.
'The West sneers at the concept of an entire nation coming together to achieve important goals. It’s Maoism they say forgetting that the Americans themselves adopted this idea during WWII. How else did the US become “the Arsenal of Democracy”.'
This had a profound effect on me. The exposition of a co-ordinated, country-wide approach beating the disparate approach of competing companies in the West, bent on profits, and cutting each others throats, is a truism that is never acknowledged there. Its name - Maoism, socialism, whatever - isn't important, the results are! This is why China's ascendancy is assured.
Anyway, you knocked it out the park with this one. It really lifted my Weekend.
Thanks so much for this. If this article was good, it is thanks to advice from my commenters, who give me a sense of perspective. When I start writing, I usually start with an idea that I pick up from news online, usually distorted in one way or another. Then I start making connections to other things and other ideas. I don't know where it leads for a while until I parse the information I have and various opinions. Eventually, I discover what the article is supposed to be about. It's writng as discovery. Most writing start with an event and a thesis about that event in place and explicate it. I can do that too. But it has its limitations. In this case, I discovered the "Whole Nation" concept. That contrasted the current political division of American society. Then I considered WWII and the unity of the US in what they thought was an existential war. That connected to the existential challenges that both Russia and China feel from the US. A key in all this is Joe Biden who to me is symptomatic of a national sickness, as it seems most presidents have been recently. Sorry, I'm ramblin'. It's Sunday here in Tokyo and hot and I haven't had my morning coffee.
No one is perfect!
Great broad look at the social mess of Joe his “Bonfires of the Vanities” talent .
You could say that those who refuse to learn due to vanity/ hubris are uncivilized
After all they have killed millions of innocent people for no reason.
The true primitives of this hubris jungle are now in failure mode as anyone can see with your reporting .
We can only celebrate our mysterious humanity as it overcomes the misery we feel about our leadership,
We define what civilization is now!!
I was very impressed by Alastair Crooke's article on hubris, as well as Zuesse's article on the MIC.
That Joe Biden is a terrible president does not mean that Donald Trump was a competent one.
Trump did speak the truth about the folly of the Iraq invasion during a Republican nominee debate in South Carolina. He did that in South Carolina! His popularity surged but that statement united establishment Republicans in hatred of his success.
I am sure a second term Trump would keep up the trend of antagonizing China. Too, Trump has a way overinflated view of the quality of the US military. Trump's next cabinet will be the same shit show that his first was. I will admit the possibility that Trump is far more likely to provide some level of material benefit than any Democrat, but it will not be sufficient.
Let me close by plugging Dr. Cornel West. His call for dismantling the United States empire is unique among candidates and in no paradox, means if enacted would be the first overarching policy that puts Americans first.
Thanks for the comprehensive rap sheet on Biden. For me, adjectives like sleepy and creepy do not add any impact to the horrible set of facts that accompany President Biden. I would drop those.
I agree with you about both Trump and West.
Excellent work as usual, thank you!
Regards,
William White
Thank you.
Nice article, but please check your links before publishing:
- one is broken,
- a second one is not relevant to the topic and, instead, is a repetition of another link,
- a third one points to a private post of your subStack, apparently.
On a different topic, regarding American drones in Syria and Eastern Europe and Russian electronic warfare (EW)...
Just yesterday an American military reconnaissance drone crashed in the woods near the village of Trzebien, southern Poland. Apparently it was being used by U.S. soldiers for a training flight [1]. Either it was a costly mistake by the pilot(s) or possibly the Russian EW. I know the crash location is quite far away from Russia and Belarus (~600 km away from the Polish border with Belarus), however it is well known that Russian EW has a very wide range, as Cypriots and Israelis know [2]: in the past a Russian spoofer/jammer located on Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia (western Syria) interfered with civilian airplanes GPS near the airports of Larnaka (Cyprus) and Tel Aviv (Israel), this one being ~500 km away from Latakia.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-drone-crashes-southwestern-poland-rmf-2023-07-21/
[2] https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-jammer-in-syria-said-to-cause-interference-with-flights-to-israel/
Fixed the Blinken url.
I have corrected some of the links. Some links are repeated for Crooke and Johnson's articles, however, just to emphasize that these are their ideas not mine. and they should get the credit.
Thanks for the heads up on the links. Could you identify the links for me, please.
I noticed that you have already corrected the first one.
Regarding the second one, I do not remember or cannot find it - maybe you have fixed it in the meantime.
As for the third and last one, it is this one: "Blinken I have already written about."
I get to a blank page where I get the following message:
"You're logged in as [my e-mail address], but this page is private. Try logging in with a different email, or letting the author know they've linked to a private page."
Thank you so much! That's great help. I'll fix that right away.
I take Mike H's point for breaking this down to fit the attention span of the average reader, but digesting it as a whole is certainly powerful and important. Fantastic piece though a couple typos need attention before going viral to the world, which I wish it would.
Thanks for the heads up on typos. Could you tell me where?
It was rewritten so many times, I am surprised there are only a few glitches! ;0
To Julian's point of people not even able to run their AC's, we live in steamy-hot Florida in a 40-year-old manufactured home. We are fortunate that we had the means to upgrade to like new with energy efficient windows, AC, added insulation in the roof and walls. Our electric bill this month was $138. By contrast, our nephew in central Texas, lives in a similar sized, slightly newer vintage manufactured home with none of these upgrades. His electric bill this month was over $439. I have no idea how he can pay this with what he makes and summer has a long way to go. He certainly has no means to improve his situation--upgrading or selling and getting something better. Indeed, the growing plight of all too many across the globe.
Hot here in Tokyo, too!
"His narrative has no originality. Nor reality. No authenticity. And, of course, no morality."
This is simple, yet profound statement of fact, applies not only to Biden but the bipartisan war machine that pumps out its toxicity upon all that is--on the land and in the air and seas. The hubris so blatant and astounding. Far too many fellow Americans, who can only see "red" and "blue," remain mired as they are in their devotion and constant outrage against "the other." At least, slowly but surely, the rest of the world sees it and is moving away from our manipulation to forge alternatives to our hegemony. The lapdogs of Europe and (for reasons that don't compute) Australia, New Zealand, etc., all too content to allow our destruction of their own economies.