I have been saying for a very long time now that time is key part of the Russian strategy. They are in no rush to bring the operation to a close, they are not working to any arbitrary timeline, and they are not driven to 'seize' territory. They are western priorities and, as the NATkranians are pursuing them mindlessly, they have made themselves prisoners of Russian strategy. And they're losing badly.
All analyses, even the good ones like Big Serge, are sometimes constrained by reference to anachronisms. I have described the Russian approach as a new Verdun too, but it's not a literal analogy as war fighting technology has changed in more than a century. The analogy is one of drawing the enemy to defend a salient of politically strategic importance which becomes a death zone, bleeding the enemy white. This is truly what is happening in Bahkmut, even if the analogy isn't a perfect fit. The NATkranians will continue to pour blood and treasure into the hole and the Russians will keep smashing it until the whole rotten structure breaks.
To add on to a good article, Julian, may i also note the bigger picture too few are asking: what does a Russian win look like given all the players involved?
One major aspect is certainly the requirement that a nuclear exchange be avoided if at all possible. Although unthinkable a few years ago, we've seen far too many DC swamp rats openly musing about the mythical tactical nuke and winning a nuclear exchange. So the possibility must be near the top of Russia's concerns.
To that end, Russia must avoid the kind of large scale, big arrow, massed formation attacks dreamt of by the armchair strategists. Why? Because images and news of massive tank formations overrunning Ukie defenses and rolling towards Kiev (and Lviv?) is *exactly * the kind of visual the DC swamprats need to sell panic and all out war to the sheeple in the West. The DC rats are praying for a nice, juicy Russian offensive that can be parlayed into direct war. And once that starts and NATO units are being inevitably obliterated, the temptation to throw a nuke at the eeeeevilll Roooshians may be unbearable.
So, Russia's current approach is slow and boring and as bereft of any material for US propaganda as you can get. By desugn. The only winning scenario i see for Russia that eliminates this escalation danger is a wholesale capitulation by Kiev. A collapse. Russia may have to move in w peacekeepers of its choosing to restore order and aid to civilians, but DC won't have any pretext for intervention at that point.
"while the RF has advanced in the Zaporozhe region, taking Orikhiv (pop. 13,000) and other villages, this is not a “big arrow” offensive; rather it is positional movement."
can you tell me when they took Orekhiv? No map shows them as having taken it
Thankyou! Really thoughtful analysis. Came here via sonar 21 piece. Your spectrum section was a surprise and also interesting to me. At the age of 63, a teacher friend recently suggested 'have you considered you may be on the spectrum?' It has set lots of thoughts running!
Your analysis article is much akin to playing chess. However, I look at a much larger picture and influence. I believe we are witnessing the physical properties (outward appearance) that involve a spiritual battle. It has gone on for thousands of years being good versus evil. If you have perused any of the ancient writings of civilization including the KJV Bible especially in light of the prophecies of Daniel 10 or Isaiah 17 or Revelation 4-9 you can see it all coming together.
Since the newer weapons of war can strike almost anywhere with impunity it serves us well to be right with our creator. Mark 8:36 (KJV) For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? Jesus offers a free gift (Romans 10:9-13) in the Age of Grace all a person need do is call upon him, believe, and accept it. While the door is open. I am sixty-five years old and a retired university professor so it behooves me to be sure. I do enjoy the analysis and comments. You never really know what you believe until the battle is on your doorstep.
As for seeing beyond and getting away from linear thinking, may I contribute with an analytical tool that has proven itself faultless since 2012? Cut and paste from a post (around 2014):
@ Jim W. Dean – The answer to your question ’why Germany keeps producing these offensive nuclear capable subs for Israel’ is that the Nazi’s were Zionists. To commemorate the meeting in 1933 between the Nazi functionary Elder von Mildenstein and Feivel Polkes of the Haganah Zionists in Palestine Germany issued a coin. Later Polkes travelled to Berlin in 1937 to meet with Adolf Eichmann, “mr. holocaust” [and a Jew] himself and a student of the Hebrew language.
On the front it shows a big hexagram in the middle with the text ‘Ein Nazi Fährt Nach Palästina’, meaning, A NAZI TRAVELS TO PALESTINE. On the back is shows a swastika on top and below the text ‘Und Erzählt Davon Im Angriff’, meaning, AND TELLS THEM ABOUT THE Attack’. [Exchange words is something you do with a friend because enemies don't heed to words.]
Lenni Brenner explains this in the above video (a must see!) linked in the article that the Attack was the leading Nazi party’s magazine and Brenner continues that Jabotinsky, who was the founder of Zionist revisionism, was deeply involved with Mussolini. In 1935 Mussolini invited 130 of Jabotinsky’s youth group Betar to study at Italy’s Naval Academy. Jabotinsky’s secretary was Benjamin Netanyahu’s father and their ‘movement was pro fascist’, and according to Lenni Brenner, at least 35 of them joined the Italian Fascist party. ‘He [Netanyahu] can’t say “I didn’t know”’, as Brenner put it.
Now, post WWII Berlin is not much different and Angela Merkel is often posing doing the Illuminati/Cabbalist sign of the up-side-down pyramid, as seen in her Washington visit. These elites identify themselves to a lesser degree after their national identity because they are Cabbalists or Talmudist and thus primarily worship the same god, or more probably allied gods, Lucifer and Satan.
For your analysis you need to move beyond the usual Base and (ideological) Superstructure framework to include the Spiritual Dimensional Level (as I call it). It can explain most illogic phenomena we see on the below levels. The END GAME for all Cabbalists and Talmudic Jews is the same as you see them do everything in their power to fulfill the Biblical End Times that are also described in the Koran.
Studies at Johns Hopkins of the Jewish Genome proved that few if any Jews in Israel are Semites.
--> The point with this old quote is that I've found NO geopolitical analysts who can explain the numerous paradoxes that everybody point out. That is because they (whether they know it or not) function (read everything) through the Marxian Base and Superstructure. Paradoxes indicate that this analytical tool is incomplete. It cannot explain why Jews such as Adolf Eichmann and Alfred Rosenberg could simultaneously be Nazis. Neither can Base and Superstructure explain how come Christians (or followers of any religion) simultaneously be Freemasons or otherwise Kabbalists or other forms of occult esoterisist, who which, according to the most renown Freemason 33rd degree Albert Pike are "Luciferians".
When phenomena on the (physical) Base level collided (meaning paradoxes), Karl Marx added the ideological Superstructure level (which contains all discourses and all religions) so that one can see who is pulling the strings on the puppet-master level. Since NATO, GCC and other actors are full of paradoxes, the above post shows we need to add yet another level because actors of the hegemon obviously function according to another plane of understanding.
Hence the Spiritual Dimensional Level is a must in ALL analysis of our world.
I am always too deep in details to be able to make a comprehensive narrative about what i found.
I just found out, how Russian military find ways to follow shallow ridges and heights to have clear view from above on the targets they want to shell to destroy their artillery & fortifications, rather than storming that target before that time, or using roads. And when the enemy replaces the losses, all the better, saves fuel...
I would imagine that the Russians are thinking ahead to a time when the USA no longer maintains any significant military or diplomatic presence in Asia or Africa. They know that they can have no peace with meddlesome American do-gooders crawling all over the land and prowling the waters of the Med, Black Sea, North Sea, and Baltic. The US military on Iceland and at Thule, Greenland, must be also constant worries. This scenario of USA departing the eastern hemisphere could come about through a direct war bt the two powers, but Russia might not survive that. So maybe they have people thinking about how to subvert the USA enough to make it like a Brazil of North America: A fun, interesting place, but not an imperialist pest with "interests" throughout most of the world.
Others have already set in motion a huge population transformation with mass migration. Maybe the strategy is give a little nudge here and another there until unhostile factions come to power; these would be expected to crush the old Yankee society. Best case scenario for the Russians is probably the fragmentation of USA AND Canada into 4 or 5 countries which would, given their old habits, character, and mentality, be in conflict with each other. China gets the possible benefit of the USA, or what's left of it, withdrawing its Navy from the western Pacific Ocean.
Meanwhile, the indigenous populations of western Europe are already finding theirselves reduced slowly into minorities on their own lands. Would Russia not consider accelerating that? Maybe there's a little famine in Africa. So another 25m are encouraged to go pouring into the EU for benies and easy slags. A little tweak could send a disproportionate number into perfidious old Albion. Then some weapons are sent on the pretext of helping the refugees defend theirselves against "white supremacists". English, Welsh, and Scottish flee in droves. The UK collapses or is so crippled that it is never again a threat to Russia. The ideal here might be the extinction of the Windsors and a wipeout of the peerage by Muhammadists and Subsaharans, who already are adopting the costumes and institutions of the old regime like a skin suit. Thus another old problem is solved. Same treatment later for the filthy French and the Germans. Sorry, fellow white people of western Europe. You dug your own graves. Have a nice nap.
I have been saying for a very long time now that time is key part of the Russian strategy. They are in no rush to bring the operation to a close, they are not working to any arbitrary timeline, and they are not driven to 'seize' territory. They are western priorities and, as the NATkranians are pursuing them mindlessly, they have made themselves prisoners of Russian strategy. And they're losing badly.
All analyses, even the good ones like Big Serge, are sometimes constrained by reference to anachronisms. I have described the Russian approach as a new Verdun too, but it's not a literal analogy as war fighting technology has changed in more than a century. The analogy is one of drawing the enemy to defend a salient of politically strategic importance which becomes a death zone, bleeding the enemy white. This is truly what is happening in Bahkmut, even if the analogy isn't a perfect fit. The NATkranians will continue to pour blood and treasure into the hole and the Russians will keep smashing it until the whole rotten structure breaks.
To add on to a good article, Julian, may i also note the bigger picture too few are asking: what does a Russian win look like given all the players involved?
One major aspect is certainly the requirement that a nuclear exchange be avoided if at all possible. Although unthinkable a few years ago, we've seen far too many DC swamp rats openly musing about the mythical tactical nuke and winning a nuclear exchange. So the possibility must be near the top of Russia's concerns.
To that end, Russia must avoid the kind of large scale, big arrow, massed formation attacks dreamt of by the armchair strategists. Why? Because images and news of massive tank formations overrunning Ukie defenses and rolling towards Kiev (and Lviv?) is *exactly * the kind of visual the DC swamprats need to sell panic and all out war to the sheeple in the West. The DC rats are praying for a nice, juicy Russian offensive that can be parlayed into direct war. And once that starts and NATO units are being inevitably obliterated, the temptation to throw a nuke at the eeeeevilll Roooshians may be unbearable.
So, Russia's current approach is slow and boring and as bereft of any material for US propaganda as you can get. By desugn. The only winning scenario i see for Russia that eliminates this escalation danger is a wholesale capitulation by Kiev. A collapse. Russia may have to move in w peacekeepers of its choosing to restore order and aid to civilians, but DC won't have any pretext for intervention at that point.
"while the RF has advanced in the Zaporozhe region, taking Orikhiv (pop. 13,000) and other villages, this is not a “big arrow” offensive; rather it is positional movement."
can you tell me when they took Orekhiv? No map shows them as having taken it
Thankyou! Really thoughtful analysis. Came here via sonar 21 piece. Your spectrum section was a surprise and also interesting to me. At the age of 63, a teacher friend recently suggested 'have you considered you may be on the spectrum?' It has set lots of thoughts running!
Your analysis article is much akin to playing chess. However, I look at a much larger picture and influence. I believe we are witnessing the physical properties (outward appearance) that involve a spiritual battle. It has gone on for thousands of years being good versus evil. If you have perused any of the ancient writings of civilization including the KJV Bible especially in light of the prophecies of Daniel 10 or Isaiah 17 or Revelation 4-9 you can see it all coming together.
Since the newer weapons of war can strike almost anywhere with impunity it serves us well to be right with our creator. Mark 8:36 (KJV) For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? Jesus offers a free gift (Romans 10:9-13) in the Age of Grace all a person need do is call upon him, believe, and accept it. While the door is open. I am sixty-five years old and a retired university professor so it behooves me to be sure. I do enjoy the analysis and comments. You never really know what you believe until the battle is on your doorstep.
Great stuff.
As for seeing beyond and getting away from linear thinking, may I contribute with an analytical tool that has proven itself faultless since 2012? Cut and paste from a post (around 2014):
@ Jim W. Dean – The answer to your question ’why Germany keeps producing these offensive nuclear capable subs for Israel’ is that the Nazi’s were Zionists. To commemorate the meeting in 1933 between the Nazi functionary Elder von Mildenstein and Feivel Polkes of the Haganah Zionists in Palestine Germany issued a coin. Later Polkes travelled to Berlin in 1937 to meet with Adolf Eichmann, “mr. holocaust” [and a Jew] himself and a student of the Hebrew language.
http://alertarojaboletin.blogspot.se/2014/07/el-nazismo-y-el-sionismo-son-hermanos.html
On the front it shows a big hexagram in the middle with the text ‘Ein Nazi Fährt Nach Palästina’, meaning, A NAZI TRAVELS TO PALESTINE. On the back is shows a swastika on top and below the text ‘Und Erzählt Davon Im Angriff’, meaning, AND TELLS THEM ABOUT THE Attack’. [Exchange words is something you do with a friend because enemies don't heed to words.]
Lenni Brenner explains this in the above video (a must see!) linked in the article that the Attack was the leading Nazi party’s magazine and Brenner continues that Jabotinsky, who was the founder of Zionist revisionism, was deeply involved with Mussolini. In 1935 Mussolini invited 130 of Jabotinsky’s youth group Betar to study at Italy’s Naval Academy. Jabotinsky’s secretary was Benjamin Netanyahu’s father and their ‘movement was pro fascist’, and according to Lenni Brenner, at least 35 of them joined the Italian Fascist party. ‘He [Netanyahu] can’t say “I didn’t know”’, as Brenner put it.
Now, post WWII Berlin is not much different and Angela Merkel is often posing doing the Illuminati/Cabbalist sign of the up-side-down pyramid, as seen in her Washington visit. These elites identify themselves to a lesser degree after their national identity because they are Cabbalists or Talmudist and thus primarily worship the same god, or more probably allied gods, Lucifer and Satan.
For your analysis you need to move beyond the usual Base and (ideological) Superstructure framework to include the Spiritual Dimensional Level (as I call it). It can explain most illogic phenomena we see on the below levels. The END GAME for all Cabbalists and Talmudic Jews is the same as you see them do everything in their power to fulfill the Biblical End Times that are also described in the Koran.
Studies at Johns Hopkins of the Jewish Genome proved that few if any Jews in Israel are Semites.
--> The point with this old quote is that I've found NO geopolitical analysts who can explain the numerous paradoxes that everybody point out. That is because they (whether they know it or not) function (read everything) through the Marxian Base and Superstructure. Paradoxes indicate that this analytical tool is incomplete. It cannot explain why Jews such as Adolf Eichmann and Alfred Rosenberg could simultaneously be Nazis. Neither can Base and Superstructure explain how come Christians (or followers of any religion) simultaneously be Freemasons or otherwise Kabbalists or other forms of occult esoterisist, who which, according to the most renown Freemason 33rd degree Albert Pike are "Luciferians".
https://quotesgram.com/albert-pike-quotes-lucifer/
When phenomena on the (physical) Base level collided (meaning paradoxes), Karl Marx added the ideological Superstructure level (which contains all discourses and all religions) so that one can see who is pulling the strings on the puppet-master level. Since NATO, GCC and other actors are full of paradoxes, the above post shows we need to add yet another level because actors of the hegemon obviously function according to another plane of understanding.
Hence the Spiritual Dimensional Level is a must in ALL analysis of our world.
very compelling, i do like the analogy of the bleeding belly with the target being the head, russia will wait,
Great stuff - I don’t think big arrows either too many potential casualties and risk
Thank You, Julian...
A very good explanation.
I am always too deep in details to be able to make a comprehensive narrative about what i found.
I just found out, how Russian military find ways to follow shallow ridges and heights to have clear view from above on the targets they want to shell to destroy their artillery & fortifications, rather than storming that target before that time, or using roads. And when the enemy replaces the losses, all the better, saves fuel...
I found that on the channel of WEEB UNION.
https://www.youtube.com/@WeebUnionWU
Keep up the good work !
Yeah, NATO has written its own death warrant.
I would imagine that the Russians are thinking ahead to a time when the USA no longer maintains any significant military or diplomatic presence in Asia or Africa. They know that they can have no peace with meddlesome American do-gooders crawling all over the land and prowling the waters of the Med, Black Sea, North Sea, and Baltic. The US military on Iceland and at Thule, Greenland, must be also constant worries. This scenario of USA departing the eastern hemisphere could come about through a direct war bt the two powers, but Russia might not survive that. So maybe they have people thinking about how to subvert the USA enough to make it like a Brazil of North America: A fun, interesting place, but not an imperialist pest with "interests" throughout most of the world.
Others have already set in motion a huge population transformation with mass migration. Maybe the strategy is give a little nudge here and another there until unhostile factions come to power; these would be expected to crush the old Yankee society. Best case scenario for the Russians is probably the fragmentation of USA AND Canada into 4 or 5 countries which would, given their old habits, character, and mentality, be in conflict with each other. China gets the possible benefit of the USA, or what's left of it, withdrawing its Navy from the western Pacific Ocean.
Meanwhile, the indigenous populations of western Europe are already finding theirselves reduced slowly into minorities on their own lands. Would Russia not consider accelerating that? Maybe there's a little famine in Africa. So another 25m are encouraged to go pouring into the EU for benies and easy slags. A little tweak could send a disproportionate number into perfidious old Albion. Then some weapons are sent on the pretext of helping the refugees defend theirselves against "white supremacists". English, Welsh, and Scottish flee in droves. The UK collapses or is so crippled that it is never again a threat to Russia. The ideal here might be the extinction of the Windsors and a wipeout of the peerage by Muhammadists and Subsaharans, who already are adopting the costumes and institutions of the old regime like a skin suit. Thus another old problem is solved. Same treatment later for the filthy French and the Germans. Sorry, fellow white people of western Europe. You dug your own graves. Have a nice nap.
Russia has time to just keep killing. Ukraine will run out of fighting men