Great analysis and I think you are right that Miley et al., view the inevitable counteroffensive failure as an off ramp opportunity, but will Victoria Nuland allow it to be taken? I just can't see it.
Moreover, unless Russia gets it security agreements (NATO out of east Europe, I do not see Russia allowing the west an off-ramp - I would expect as the US is currently trying to stir up trouble for Russia in the periphery, you will see the same in reverse - with the US having to painfully withdraw withdraw withdraw under fire.
The "off ramp" for the West is not an "off ramp" for Russia, which will stay the course . It does not want "agreements" with NATO since a.) NATO is a Cold War relic b.) agreement incapable. The US will try to forget Ukraine as it did Afghanistan. That will be easy if Ukraine, except for Galicia, returns to Russia. Ukraine was once the heart of Russia-- it can be again. Failure in Ukraine means the failure of NATO and of transatlantic system. IMO. And I am always right except for the 50% of the time that I am wrong. :)
But will Russia (and China and Iran) allow the US to forget? NATO is rapidly being demilitarized, and this means the periphery of the US empire is under-defended - particularly if local forces acquire advanced Russian military tools.
And it would be so easy to provide those tools to various forces inside the US. For example, the number of articles about attacks on grid generators and transformers is amazing. Corrupt ukrainian could (even today) be selling Javelins into the US black market.
Not only is this analysis insightful.....'this guy can write'.....great piece, JM! Even if you're half right! While reading it, as usual, my mind reflects on my past learning.....especially the last 15-20 years..... so off to DaLL - which tells me that Western Civilization has lost the blessing of God. That is a subject all to itself, but it certainly applies here.
I hate to admit it, but like most Americans, for most of my life I believed that we were DaGoodGuys and everyone else were DaBadGuys. Then, about 12-15 years ago I started to read. Yeah, I know – stop reading!.....
........To say that the last decade or so has been a shocking discovery of reality might be more of a surprise if it wasn’t for my gradual gains over the years in familiarity with the Bible – the insights gained are literally playing out in front of my eyes in full technicolor and gory details!.....
......So one 13th century Russian said that God is in Truth and another 20th century (Solzhenitsyn) said that strength is in Truth. And both were facing a threat from the West when they made their statements; seven centuries later, and so little has changed… amazing, no?
Everyone is religious - not just Churchians! And.....incidentally......Churchianity is NOT Christianity. That's why we're in deep doodoo!
"Public schools were created explicitly to reinforce the dominant religious beliefs of American culture. Those beliefs used to be Protestant, but are now secular. Both are religions."
There is no doubt that the Pentagon has botched this campaign as they have every other one since the end of WW2, but too many otherwise excellent analyses of the war brush over the fact that there are many really good reasons why eastern Europeans fear and despise the Russians. History provides pages and pages of them. You quote the Auden poem, but take the starting point as the current war, and not some time earlier, such as, oh ferinstance, early 1930s Ukraine, where the Russians deliberately starved to death millions of Ukrainians. That will leave a mark.
Americans are deliberately using this well-found hatred to feed patriotic Ukrainians into the meat grinder. When they run low, they will try to "encourage" Poles to join the party. The neocons seem to have a particular hatred for Slavs...I wonder why that is...
The history of the great famine in the USSR is due to Stalin's policy (which followed Lenin's) of eliminating the Russian peasantry, the kulaks, which were considered a remnant of the tsarist era. Hence a fall in agricultural production aggravated by difficult climatic conditions and, as a result, a famine that affected the whole USSR and not only Ukraine. But, of course, Ukrainian nationalists, especially since the fall of the USSR and especially the diaspora settled in Canada, have forged the story of the voluntary famine targeting the Ukrainian people, allowing to create a hatred of the Russians - forgetting that Stalin was not Russian but Georgian. The holodomor is a propaganda tool, not a historical fact. It is not surprising that the US and the EU have been quick to recognize it, because it is in the interest of their war against Russia.
"and not some time earlier, such as, oh ferinstance, early 1930s Ukraine, where the Russians deliberately starved to death millions of Ukrainians"
There are people who would argue with that claim. I have read that 1) Stalin did not deliberately starve anyone, 2) Ukrainians were not the only ones who suffered that famine, & 3) the term "Holodomor" did not exist until recently, when it was created by the west as "hate Russia" propaganda.
I wasn't around then, so don't know & take all with a large grain of salt.
But I *do* still remember from high school over 50 years ago, learning that the famine was caused by Stalin/the Communist Party applying political ideology to agriculture, specifically to growing wheat.
(Come to think of it, the Netherlands appears to be heading toward a contemporary example of that very same mistake. History rhymes.)
Have you not seen the recent U.S. bipartisan Ukraine Victory Resolution bill which is being promoted in Congress? It will pass and commits the U.S. by law to military intervene in Ukraine in the event that Russia defeats the AFU. This conflict is just as existential to the Anglo-American alliance as it is to Russia to preserve the unipolar order. With Finland having joined NATO, U.S. hypersonics (if they ever arrive...) would be less than 10 minutes flight time to Moscow. Ukraine is just the proxy, the next in line are the bat-sh*t crazy Poles.
The resolution does not commit the US to military intervention. It is simply a reiteration of US policy. If it passes (still an "if") it will doom any chance of a negotiated settlement. US hypersonic weapons are at least 5 years away -- by which time Russia and China will have an even bigger lead. Here is partial ltext of the resolution: Resolved, That the House of Representatives—
(1) affirms that it is the policy of the United States to see Ukraine victorious against the invasion and restored to its internationally recognized 1991 borders;
(2) holds that the peace brought by Ukrainian victory must be secured by integrating Ukraine into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other Euroatlantic institutions, as consistent with longstanding United States policy; and
(3) declares that the United States must work with its allies and partners to ensure that—
(A) the Russian Federation pays reparations to Ukraine;
(B) the global community helps to rebuild Ukraine;
(C) the leaders of the Russian Federation are held accountable for this war of aggression; and
(D) there is justice for victims of crimes committed by the Russian Federation during its invasion.
I'm thinking of the map updates in Bhakmut types. I go there a lot , I find they give fast facts but they really need improving. The maps are horrible and the English abilities are not great. Might be a good Niche market to slide into.
A Master piece !
I love you !
Sander.
Love you back Sander :)
Great analysis and I think you are right that Miley et al., view the inevitable counteroffensive failure as an off ramp opportunity, but will Victoria Nuland allow it to be taken? I just can't see it.
Moreover, unless Russia gets it security agreements (NATO out of east Europe, I do not see Russia allowing the west an off-ramp - I would expect as the US is currently trying to stir up trouble for Russia in the periphery, you will see the same in reverse - with the US having to painfully withdraw withdraw withdraw under fire.
The only hope I see if a collapse of the dollar
The "off ramp" for the West is not an "off ramp" for Russia, which will stay the course . It does not want "agreements" with NATO since a.) NATO is a Cold War relic b.) agreement incapable. The US will try to forget Ukraine as it did Afghanistan. That will be easy if Ukraine, except for Galicia, returns to Russia. Ukraine was once the heart of Russia-- it can be again. Failure in Ukraine means the failure of NATO and of transatlantic system. IMO. And I am always right except for the 50% of the time that I am wrong. :)
But will Russia (and China and Iran) allow the US to forget? NATO is rapidly being demilitarized, and this means the periphery of the US empire is under-defended - particularly if local forces acquire advanced Russian military tools.
And it would be so easy to provide those tools to various forces inside the US. For example, the number of articles about attacks on grid generators and transformers is amazing. Corrupt ukrainian could (even today) be selling Javelins into the US black market.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
Not only is this analysis insightful.....'this guy can write'.....great piece, JM! Even if you're half right! While reading it, as usual, my mind reflects on my past learning.....especially the last 15-20 years..... so off to DaLL - which tells me that Western Civilization has lost the blessing of God. That is a subject all to itself, but it certainly applies here.
I hate to admit it, but like most Americans, for most of my life I believed that we were DaGoodGuys and everyone else were DaBadGuys. Then, about 12-15 years ago I started to read. Yeah, I know – stop reading!.....
........To say that the last decade or so has been a shocking discovery of reality might be more of a surprise if it wasn’t for my gradual gains over the years in familiarity with the Bible – the insights gained are literally playing out in front of my eyes in full technicolor and gory details!.....
......So one 13th century Russian said that God is in Truth and another 20th century (Solzhenitsyn) said that strength is in Truth. And both were facing a threat from the West when they made their statements; seven centuries later, and so little has changed… amazing, no?
Not a coincidence if you ask me. - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2019/01/so-who-controls-us-foreign-policy-and.html?m=0 - found this post from 4 years ago in DaLimbraw Library (DaLL) word searching DaGoodGuys. There were others.
I am not religious. But I read Scripture from various religions. There is truth there -- and inspiration. Fpr me, anyway.
Everyone is religious - not just Churchians! And.....incidentally......Churchianity is NOT Christianity. That's why we're in deep doodoo!
"Public schools were created explicitly to reinforce the dominant religious beliefs of American culture. Those beliefs used to be Protestant, but are now secular. Both are religions."
https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2017/03/why-public-schools-will-always-include.html?m=0 - and this is just the beginning of the topic.
Confusion reigns in all institutions because DaWatchmen have fallen asleep...
But you keep writing, Julian - you have insights not available anywhere else I've found.
Thank you. Excellent take!
Thank you.
There is no doubt that the Pentagon has botched this campaign as they have every other one since the end of WW2, but too many otherwise excellent analyses of the war brush over the fact that there are many really good reasons why eastern Europeans fear and despise the Russians. History provides pages and pages of them. You quote the Auden poem, but take the starting point as the current war, and not some time earlier, such as, oh ferinstance, early 1930s Ukraine, where the Russians deliberately starved to death millions of Ukrainians. That will leave a mark.
Americans are deliberately using this well-found hatred to feed patriotic Ukrainians into the meat grinder. When they run low, they will try to "encourage" Poles to join the party. The neocons seem to have a particular hatred for Slavs...I wonder why that is...
The history of the great famine in the USSR is due to Stalin's policy (which followed Lenin's) of eliminating the Russian peasantry, the kulaks, which were considered a remnant of the tsarist era. Hence a fall in agricultural production aggravated by difficult climatic conditions and, as a result, a famine that affected the whole USSR and not only Ukraine. But, of course, Ukrainian nationalists, especially since the fall of the USSR and especially the diaspora settled in Canada, have forged the story of the voluntary famine targeting the Ukrainian people, allowing to create a hatred of the Russians - forgetting that Stalin was not Russian but Georgian. The holodomor is a propaganda tool, not a historical fact. It is not surprising that the US and the EU have been quick to recognize it, because it is in the interest of their war against Russia.
"and not some time earlier, such as, oh ferinstance, early 1930s Ukraine, where the Russians deliberately starved to death millions of Ukrainians"
There are people who would argue with that claim. I have read that 1) Stalin did not deliberately starve anyone, 2) Ukrainians were not the only ones who suffered that famine, & 3) the term "Holodomor" did not exist until recently, when it was created by the west as "hate Russia" propaganda.
I wasn't around then, so don't know & take all with a large grain of salt.
But I *do* still remember from high school over 50 years ago, learning that the famine was caused by Stalin/the Communist Party applying political ideology to agriculture, specifically to growing wheat.
(Come to think of it, the Netherlands appears to be heading toward a contemporary example of that very same mistake. History rhymes.)
Great!
I concur!
Thanks guys!
You're the best out there, you deserve a YouTube channel. Great work as usual.
I actually have a YouTube channel. Don't do much with it. Just post videos for my Ageing Young website. (www. ageingyoung.com)
Have you not seen the recent U.S. bipartisan Ukraine Victory Resolution bill which is being promoted in Congress? It will pass and commits the U.S. by law to military intervene in Ukraine in the event that Russia defeats the AFU. This conflict is just as existential to the Anglo-American alliance as it is to Russia to preserve the unipolar order. With Finland having joined NATO, U.S. hypersonics (if they ever arrive...) would be less than 10 minutes flight time to Moscow. Ukraine is just the proxy, the next in line are the bat-sh*t crazy Poles.
The resolution does not commit the US to military intervention. It is simply a reiteration of US policy. If it passes (still an "if") it will doom any chance of a negotiated settlement. US hypersonic weapons are at least 5 years away -- by which time Russia and China will have an even bigger lead. Here is partial ltext of the resolution: Resolved, That the House of Representatives—
(1) affirms that it is the policy of the United States to see Ukraine victorious against the invasion and restored to its internationally recognized 1991 borders;
(2) holds that the peace brought by Ukrainian victory must be secured by integrating Ukraine into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other Euroatlantic institutions, as consistent with longstanding United States policy; and
(3) declares that the United States must work with its allies and partners to ensure that—
(A) the Russian Federation pays reparations to Ukraine;
(B) the global community helps to rebuild Ukraine;
(C) the leaders of the Russian Federation are held accountable for this war of aggression; and
(D) there is justice for victims of crimes committed by the Russian Federation during its invasion.
I'm thinking of the map updates in Bhakmut types. I go there a lot , I find they give fast facts but they really need improving. The maps are horrible and the English abilities are not great. Might be a good Niche market to slide into.
The maps are indeed confusing.