You seem to have stepped back from your view Russia will take control of all or most of Ukraine.
Don't give the assertions of "experts" like Doctorow, Trenin or any other western "experts" to much credit or influence in your views.
I am not such an "expert" as them, but I am an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started. I have followed this conflict as close as anyone- from all manner of sources.
I don't just watch the conflict in Ukraine. I have closely followed international geopolitics and the state of the "west's" finances for years. I had a SHTF place in Canada, but sold it to leave Canada because I see societal collapse across the "west" coming fast. I was able to see this because I spent a lot of time outside the heavily propagandized & brainwashed west. When you get outside the western bubble you can see things those inside the bubble can't.
Frankly speaking at this point Ukraine is a secondary subject. This is the military conflict arena only.
The bigger and vastly more important arena is financial- the global dominance of the "western financial system" is the true source of the "west's" power. It is this which must be atritted & weakened. Achieving this will give Russia & China the peace & security they want- and end the reign of terror the "west" has inflicted upon the rest of the world for decades and centuries.
How many times has the "west" attacked Russia with visions of conquest dancing in their heads?
How many times have they clearly stated their intention to take down & control Russia & China?
Russia is battling the collective west in both the military & financial spheres. China is increasingly battling the western financial system hegemony.
It is clear the "west" is in an extremely vulnerable position economically.
I find it very hard to believe Russia is going to relent any time soon, when it has its self identified enemies on the ropes.
Returning to where will Russia stop in Ukraine? At Ukraines western border. They may well partition portions of it as you describe- but only after they have taken control of it.
People- like Ray McGovern, Doug McGregor, etc- always say- Russia doesn't want the headache & hassle of east Ukraine.
They are blind to the fact America and the west are a far bigger hassle & headache for Russia.
Taking control of Ukraine is nothing compared to ending the "western threat".
At 1 point you mention money as being important to people who have suffered for long periods.
Russia can offer Ukrainians low gas prices, low food prices, low electricity prices and in cooperation with China rapid rebuilding & modernization. Most of the remaining citizens of Ukraine will welcome these conditions and the long term peace & stability that comes with being part of Russia.
Also- once Ukrainians understand what has really happened here- them used as pawns by the west to batter Russia and take horrible casualties in the process- will create great anger towards the west among them.
All these "western experts" have this extremely high- nee- arrogant opinion about themselves and the "west" being so vastly superior to Russians & Ukrainians(and most every non-western country on earth) that they cannot even contemplate the far better future Ukrainians have in the Russian Federation.
I have followed your assessments for a long time and you have been more accurate & insightful than most of them.
I have not stepped back at all. Galicia is first of all not really "Ukraine". It is really a small chunk, ex-Poland (as I pointed out). Setting up Galicia as a rump state (as I also pointed out) does not mean giving up control. It must be denazified first. It cannot join NATO or maintain a standing army. It cannot join the EU. It will be landlocked. It will be cut off from Western investment.
I don't allow "experts" to influence my view, having a dim view of anyone regarded as an "expert". I criticized Doctorow this time. But Trenin's view is informed. As is Karlof1's.
I agree that the REAL war is not military -- but economic (as most wars really are).
As for "Ukrainians" Do they really exist. "Ukraine" is multiethnic.
We don't want Galicians in UK, nor the WEF influenced politicians, not Tories nor Labour. I think many here have had enough of being lied to by the political and financial elite. I personally have had enough of our young men coming home in black body bags, because of NATO and the US hegemony, it's time we told them to stuff the nonexistent "special relationship" and joined BRICS.
Except whores get paid. Our infantry aren't paid by US, but are almost used as if they were. I'm sick of my governments hanging on to US military 's coat tales. Two of my younger relatives gave their lives in US 'interventions', conflicts which were in no way of in or of interest to UK citizens. Both of their family's were impoverished by UK MoD's parsimonious attitudes to young widows. Our reward? Lectures from US about spending more on the military. I'm sick of US elites interference. I'm sure you all realise this is not personal against individual Americans, just your governments since 1945 and my own governments in the same period.
Unfortunately, the UK public has absolutely no clue what's going on. They're all/mostly lazy thinkers, distracted on Love Island or some other 💩. They'll only know what's going on when the financial squeeze really bites them...2025 (IMO) will be that year. It's been a long time coming. Not wanting to speculate, but the Starlin government is heading off a cliff this year... It's in the stars ⭐💫
Not just the UK public. I am Canadian. Our public too. Starmer has a short half life suitable for a half-wit . Canucks put up with an even bigger half wit - Justin Trudeau for years. Justin Bieber would have done better.
Until European descended gentile males recognize the real enemy and collectively take action to rid the "west" of the enemy- the beatdown & enslavement is going to get worse- much worse.
Just one correction: You said that the Banderists (CIA) began their brainwashing of Ukrainians in 2014 but it actually began in earnest on the day that Ukraine was granted independence - August 24, 1991. (It was also ongoing from 1945, if only clandestinely).
If generations are to be measured in scores of years (twenty) then Ukraine has had almost two generations (thirty four years) to restructure the Ukrainian, and strengthen the Galician, psyches.
Given that the CIA spared no cost to achieve this, spending like a drunken Nuland from 1991 until today, its 'success' - The 'Nakba' of the Ukrainian People - was guaranteed.
An interesting observation about the depth and breadth of the Ukrainian language in Ukraine: in numerous videos from the battlefields of Ukraine soldiers of the Ukrainian army immediately revert to Russian when they come under fire. When you are stressed you tend to revert to your mother tongue. In this case, that language is Russian.
The Russians will complete their set goals & leave what's left for the West to deal with. They'll take the Russian regions of Ukraine, taking as much time as needed to do so. They'll give the civilians a vote to join them or not. To make it legal. Karlov's substack is very good, well worth subscribing
Chappy is fine. But he is a feral cat. So it takes time. Sometimes it takes years. He is a sweet boy -- but bonding with feral cats -- as with feral human beings -- takes a while. LOL
Propaganda, not informing the population truth fully. Remember Elenski and the 31 thousand dead ukrain soldiers, while russia was suffering a multiply of that?
A clarification is in order. Actually, large parts of Galicia, especially Eastern Galicia, were originally part of Rus’, especially during the Kievan period, often refereed to a Kievan Rus’ (a term coined by 19th century Russian historian M. S. Solovyov).
The “Ruthenians” of Galicia actually referred to themselves as Russians (russkiye) or “Rusiny/Rusyny”), although their dialect differed from that in the so-called “Great Russia” (a geographical term, just as Malorosiya [Little Russia] was also a regional geographical term, which was replaced [especially with Austrian and then Bolshevik and Soviet support] with the term “Ukrainian.”
In fact, Nicholas II was greeted by the Orthodox inhabitants of L’vov very enthusiastically and warmly during his visit there during WW I.
The Eastern Slavs of Galicia were originally Orthodox Christians, just like the rest of their co-ethnic Russian, Malorossian, and Belorussian brothers; and even after many of them came under the Union of Brest (1595-1596), they retained their Eastern Byzantine rite while “Greek Catholics,” or “Uniates.” They also retained the identical Church Slavonic ecclesiastical language as all throughout Rus’ and the later Russian Empire, even as Uniates, fur centuries, at least until the outbreak of WW I in 1914. These are facts that must not be dismissed out of hand.
Austria-Hungary established a Concentration Camp at Talerhof in 1914 to imprison Orthodox “Ruthenians” (this is the Latin term that the Austro-Hungarian Empire used to describe the Eastern Slavs who called themselves Russians, Rusyn/Rusiny, etc.), seeing them as a 5th Column sympathetic to the Russian Empire. At least one Orthodox Christian saint was martyred at Talerhof, an Orthodox priest (Fr. Maxim Sandowicz), who refused to convert to the Unia or Roman Catholicism. In fact, those imprisoned were given a choice: they would be freed if they called themselves Ukrainians and gave up their Orthodox faith. Of over 5,000 prisoners, only about 900 availed themselves of the opportunity to be fed and released.
Therefore, although Volynia and L’vovshchyna are strongholds of Banderites and Greek Catholicism (Stepan Bandera’s father was a Uniate priest), there are still, and always have been, a significant number of Orthodox Christians there who are not Russophobes. I call your attention to the popular Russian Orthodox priest, Archpriest Andrei Tkachëv, born and raised in L’viv, half Russian and half Ukrainian, who spent most of his first 35 years in Galicia/Western Ukraine. His first parish was in L’viv, until he moved to Kyiv in 2004, where he served for another 10 years, until his life was seriously threatened during the Maidan and post-Maidan events of 2014, when he was forced to flee Ukraine and left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and was accepted into the Russian Orthodox Church, where he has since served in Moscow or the Moscow area. Fr. Andrei is equally at home in both Russian and Galician Ukrainian.
An interesting observation about the depth and breadth of the Ukrainian language in Ukraine: in numerous videos from the battlefields of Ukraine soldiers of the Ukrainian army immediately revert to Russian when they come under fire. When you are stressed you tend to revert to your mother tongue. In this case, that language is Russian.
There was a map going around X a month or two ago of a potential “endgame” in which Russia will just keep the 4 new oblasts and the remainder of Ukraine, excluding Galicia, will remain an independent Ukraine but will be a Russian client state. Essentially, Belarus 2.0. Is that was you see most likely happening long term?
You seem to have stepped back from your view Russia will take control of all or most of Ukraine.
Don't give the assertions of "experts" like Doctorow, Trenin or any other western "experts" to much credit or influence in your views.
I am not such an "expert" as them, but I am an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started. I have followed this conflict as close as anyone- from all manner of sources.
I don't just watch the conflict in Ukraine. I have closely followed international geopolitics and the state of the "west's" finances for years. I had a SHTF place in Canada, but sold it to leave Canada because I see societal collapse across the "west" coming fast. I was able to see this because I spent a lot of time outside the heavily propagandized & brainwashed west. When you get outside the western bubble you can see things those inside the bubble can't.
Frankly speaking at this point Ukraine is a secondary subject. This is the military conflict arena only.
The bigger and vastly more important arena is financial- the global dominance of the "western financial system" is the true source of the "west's" power. It is this which must be atritted & weakened. Achieving this will give Russia & China the peace & security they want- and end the reign of terror the "west" has inflicted upon the rest of the world for decades and centuries.
How many times has the "west" attacked Russia with visions of conquest dancing in their heads?
How many times have they clearly stated their intention to take down & control Russia & China?
Russia is battling the collective west in both the military & financial spheres. China is increasingly battling the western financial system hegemony.
It is clear the "west" is in an extremely vulnerable position economically.
I find it very hard to believe Russia is going to relent any time soon, when it has its self identified enemies on the ropes.
Returning to where will Russia stop in Ukraine? At Ukraines western border. They may well partition portions of it as you describe- but only after they have taken control of it.
People- like Ray McGovern, Doug McGregor, etc- always say- Russia doesn't want the headache & hassle of east Ukraine.
They are blind to the fact America and the west are a far bigger hassle & headache for Russia.
Taking control of Ukraine is nothing compared to ending the "western threat".
At 1 point you mention money as being important to people who have suffered for long periods.
Russia can offer Ukrainians low gas prices, low food prices, low electricity prices and in cooperation with China rapid rebuilding & modernization. Most of the remaining citizens of Ukraine will welcome these conditions and the long term peace & stability that comes with being part of Russia.
Also- once Ukrainians understand what has really happened here- them used as pawns by the west to batter Russia and take horrible casualties in the process- will create great anger towards the west among them.
All these "western experts" have this extremely high- nee- arrogant opinion about themselves and the "west" being so vastly superior to Russians & Ukrainians(and most every non-western country on earth) that they cannot even contemplate the far better future Ukrainians have in the Russian Federation.
I have followed your assessments for a long time and you have been more accurate & insightful than most of them.
Don't back down.
I have not stepped back at all. Galicia is first of all not really "Ukraine". It is really a small chunk, ex-Poland (as I pointed out). Setting up Galicia as a rump state (as I also pointed out) does not mean giving up control. It must be denazified first. It cannot join NATO or maintain a standing army. It cannot join the EU. It will be landlocked. It will be cut off from Western investment.
I don't allow "experts" to influence my view, having a dim view of anyone regarded as an "expert". I criticized Doctorow this time. But Trenin's view is informed. As is Karlof1's.
I agree that the REAL war is not military -- but economic (as most wars really are).
As for "Ukrainians" Do they really exist. "Ukraine" is multiethnic.
No, I won't back down.
It would be much easier for Russia to destroy Galicia than to live with it. Morally, it deserves to be destroyed, so who would protest?
I guess the innocent galicians? Nazi’s are everywhere (including in Russia), impossible to destroy them all. They have to be controlled.
Dont underestimate the us after ww2 groomed the nazi’s that fled, but also those that stayed behind.
We don't want Galicians in UK, nor the WEF influenced politicians, not Tories nor Labour. I think many here have had enough of being lied to by the political and financial elite. I personally have had enough of our young men coming home in black body bags, because of NATO and the US hegemony, it's time we told them to stuff the nonexistent "special relationship" and joined BRICS.
"Special" relationship always sound to me like whoring. Except that Sex Work is a more respectable profession than politics (the oldest profession)
Except whores get paid. Our infantry aren't paid by US, but are almost used as if they were. I'm sick of my governments hanging on to US military 's coat tales. Two of my younger relatives gave their lives in US 'interventions', conflicts which were in no way of in or of interest to UK citizens. Both of their family's were impoverished by UK MoD's parsimonious attitudes to young widows. Our reward? Lectures from US about spending more on the military. I'm sick of US elites interference. I'm sure you all realise this is not personal against individual Americans, just your governments since 1945 and my own governments in the same period.
Unfortunately, the UK public has absolutely no clue what's going on. They're all/mostly lazy thinkers, distracted on Love Island or some other 💩. They'll only know what's going on when the financial squeeze really bites them...2025 (IMO) will be that year. It's been a long time coming. Not wanting to speculate, but the Starlin government is heading off a cliff this year... It's in the stars ⭐💫
Not just the UK public. I am Canadian. Our public too. Starmer has a short half life suitable for a half-wit . Canucks put up with an even bigger half wit - Justin Trudeau for years. Justin Bieber would have done better.
"Telling them" ain't going to do jack shit.
Until European descended gentile males recognize the real enemy and collectively take action to rid the "west" of the enemy- the beatdown & enslavement is going to get worse- much worse.
Just one correction: You said that the Banderists (CIA) began their brainwashing of Ukrainians in 2014 but it actually began in earnest on the day that Ukraine was granted independence - August 24, 1991. (It was also ongoing from 1945, if only clandestinely).
If generations are to be measured in scores of years (twenty) then Ukraine has had almost two generations (thirty four years) to restructure the Ukrainian, and strengthen the Galician, psyches.
Given that the CIA spared no cost to achieve this, spending like a drunken Nuland from 1991 until today, its 'success' - The 'Nakba' of the Ukrainian People - was guaranteed.
Thanks for the correction. You are absolutely right.
An interesting observation about the depth and breadth of the Ukrainian language in Ukraine: in numerous videos from the battlefields of Ukraine soldiers of the Ukrainian army immediately revert to Russian when they come under fire. When you are stressed you tend to revert to your mother tongue. In this case, that language is Russian.
"Ukrainian" is to the Banderites what "Aryan" was to Hitler.
I fight endless battles here in France.
I have lived in 4 different countries and I find it hard to understand the hatred toward Russia.
Europe will die (is dying) because of this hatred.
I am expecting that the EU will dissolve. I see Italy and Spain beginning to turn.
French are smug and will be the last people to change.
Nothing is more important now than PEACE.
Roll on BRICS
No peace until the EU & NATO collapse.
It will not be much longer.
Time to end the globalist cabal controlling the "west".
Having come this far Russia would be foolish to stop prematurely.
Russia will be doing the citizens of the "west" a favor.
Russia will be doing the world a favor.
Collapse? Perhaps. But whatever replaces it could be dar worse for peace.
Just be replaced with more corporations!
You are right!
Be careful what you are whishing for!
Although it hardly can get much worse.
But likely it won’t be ‘democracy’
Since when has Democracy worked?
I am with you. Living in a very russophobic country: the Netherlands
It's all SO ridiculous..........furious.
Does Europe not remember Russia fought with us and lost 47 million people!
The Russians will complete their set goals & leave what's left for the West to deal with. They'll take the Russian regions of Ukraine, taking as much time as needed to do so. They'll give the civilians a vote to join them or not. To make it legal. Karlov's substack is very good, well worth subscribing
Yes, Karl is a really GOOD substack. I have learned a lot from him.
Great report! Thank you 😊 Glad to hear Chappy is doing well🤗
Chappy is fine. But he is a feral cat. So it takes time. Sometimes it takes years. He is a sweet boy -- but bonding with feral cats -- as with feral human beings -- takes a while. LOL
Yay🤗 I know, lol. I befriended a feral cat too. She was so sweet🥰 True that🤣
Nice to hear a differing opinion. I cant imagine a renewed Galicia at all with this SMO’s Denazification goal.
Especially being owned by USA Corporate for pennies on the dollar and who originated this Cold War in the first place.
What don't these other people understand about 1 million deaths and absolute destruction of a country?
Same reason the US supports genocide.
Propaganda, not informing the population truth fully. Remember Elenski and the 31 thousand dead ukrain soldiers, while russia was suffering a multiply of that?
A clarification is in order. Actually, large parts of Galicia, especially Eastern Galicia, were originally part of Rus’, especially during the Kievan period, often refereed to a Kievan Rus’ (a term coined by 19th century Russian historian M. S. Solovyov).
The “Ruthenians” of Galicia actually referred to themselves as Russians (russkiye) or “Rusiny/Rusyny”), although their dialect differed from that in the so-called “Great Russia” (a geographical term, just as Malorosiya [Little Russia] was also a regional geographical term, which was replaced [especially with Austrian and then Bolshevik and Soviet support] with the term “Ukrainian.”
In fact, Nicholas II was greeted by the Orthodox inhabitants of L’vov very enthusiastically and warmly during his visit there during WW I.
The Eastern Slavs of Galicia were originally Orthodox Christians, just like the rest of their co-ethnic Russian, Malorossian, and Belorussian brothers; and even after many of them came under the Union of Brest (1595-1596), they retained their Eastern Byzantine rite while “Greek Catholics,” or “Uniates.” They also retained the identical Church Slavonic ecclesiastical language as all throughout Rus’ and the later Russian Empire, even as Uniates, fur centuries, at least until the outbreak of WW I in 1914. These are facts that must not be dismissed out of hand.
Austria-Hungary established a Concentration Camp at Talerhof in 1914 to imprison Orthodox “Ruthenians” (this is the Latin term that the Austro-Hungarian Empire used to describe the Eastern Slavs who called themselves Russians, Rusyn/Rusiny, etc.), seeing them as a 5th Column sympathetic to the Russian Empire. At least one Orthodox Christian saint was martyred at Talerhof, an Orthodox priest (Fr. Maxim Sandowicz), who refused to convert to the Unia or Roman Catholicism. In fact, those imprisoned were given a choice: they would be freed if they called themselves Ukrainians and gave up their Orthodox faith. Of over 5,000 prisoners, only about 900 availed themselves of the opportunity to be fed and released.
Therefore, although Volynia and L’vovshchyna are strongholds of Banderites and Greek Catholicism (Stepan Bandera’s father was a Uniate priest), there are still, and always have been, a significant number of Orthodox Christians there who are not Russophobes. I call your attention to the popular Russian Orthodox priest, Archpriest Andrei Tkachëv, born and raised in L’viv, half Russian and half Ukrainian, who spent most of his first 35 years in Galicia/Western Ukraine. His first parish was in L’viv, until he moved to Kyiv in 2004, where he served for another 10 years, until his life was seriously threatened during the Maidan and post-Maidan events of 2014, when he was forced to flee Ukraine and left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and was accepted into the Russian Orthodox Church, where he has since served in Moscow or the Moscow area. Fr. Andrei is equally at home in both Russian and Galician Ukrainian.
You are absolutely correct. I have written about these historical facts before. And very useful for people to think about. Thank you Papa!
during WW I in April 1915 (Tsar Nicholas II’s visit to L’vov/L’viv)
referred to as (I don’t see any way to edit to correct spelling)
An interesting observation about the depth and breadth of the Ukrainian language in Ukraine: in numerous videos from the battlefields of Ukraine soldiers of the Ukrainian army immediately revert to Russian when they come under fire. When you are stressed you tend to revert to your mother tongue. In this case, that language is Russian.
Lingua Franca
There was a map going around X a month or two ago of a potential “endgame” in which Russia will just keep the 4 new oblasts and the remainder of Ukraine, excluding Galicia, will remain an independent Ukraine but will be a Russian client state. Essentially, Belarus 2.0. Is that was you see most likely happening long term?
Russians are so insecure, that they have to invade a sovereign country.
This is no place for brainwashed clown trolls like you.
Back to reddit where you belong.
A country ruled and instructed by a foreign country is not "sovereign", no matter how many advertising agencies tell you it is.
@Flex
Sovereign countries don't have their leader pre selected by the US State Department after their CIA/State Dept. instigated regime change.