Energy Truce ?
Russia takes a weekend break
Donald Trump asked the Russians for a one week moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure to spare Ukrainians the cold. He doesn’t care about Gazan women and children being blown to bits - - but in the case of Ukraine he is suddenly humanitarian.
Putin responded, saying he would grant a respite.
As a result, the Internet, specifically “X” that dumpster for half digested opinions, had a lot of people saying that this is proof:
Putin is weak
the Ukrainians have been hurting Russian infrastructure with their drone strikes
the Russians are running out of drones, missiles and vodka
As I said before, people don’t understand Putin very well.
He is certainly not weak. Nor desperate as Telegraph columnist Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former officer in the British regular army, writes.
Also, Ukrainian drones have done only minor damage to Russia’s infrastructure, having usually small payloads that are good for killing kids in ambulances but not so good for killing powerplants. AND the Russian military has an extraordinarily high interception rate, taking advantage of its lead in anti-drone technology.
No matter. The “Energy Ceasefire”, as the Ukrainians call it, is in effect as I write.
The moratorium began midnight January 30 and will expire Feburary 2. Not exactly a week. More like a weekend. Hey, Russians like their weekends too!
It also just so happens that a Ukrainian nuclear power plant has gone off line, creating a major blackout in the Kiev Region.
It will come back online just in time for the resumption of Russian strikes on electrical infrastructure, but temperatures next week are predicted to drop to record lows-- perhaps minus 30.
Our irascible friend Andrei Martyanov, says that the Russians haven’t ceased all strikes.
For some reason Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy oblasts and others didn’t reap the benefits of Trump’s “request”.
However, Andrei (as always) is both correct and incorrect.
Russia has ceased attacks on civilian electrical infrastructure— but hasn’t stopped strikes against military infrastructure, redirecting its resources to hit powerplants for drone factories, base logistics, and the like— especially in the regions he mentions.
You will recall the OODA loop, which I mentioned in the previous post. OODA—Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action. It’s taught in the US military which has no o idea what it means or at least no idea how to implement it since it requires what I call “rhizomatic” or relational thinking, not linear or binary logic.
Boyd, who was both gifted autistic did this kind of thinking naturally, Putin does it too.
Boyd always let his opponents attack first and he used their momentum and advantages against them to take advantage of the opportunities created by their mistake.
Both Trump and Zelensky are continually overshooting.’
Zelnsky’’s request for an Energy Truce, assuming that Putin would never agree and hoping that Trump would to try to pressure Russia, which it would refuse, created an opportunity.
The Ukraine negotiation process was supposed to resume on February 2nd —during the energy ceasefire— which now is disadvantageous for Kyiv which is suddenly on the backfoot. The Kievans wanted an energy truce and they got it. The Russians compromised.
What can Ukraine’s compromise be? It’s drone attacks on Russian infrastructure have minor impact. So maybe stop killing civilians? Nah.
Zelenskyy has said he will never sign a peace treaty accepting Russian terms-- rather he wants to kill Russians. 50,000 a month.
Of course, the Russians have their own spin on things.
Pavel Danilin, CEO of the Center for Political Analysis, insists that Russia is targeting electrical infrastructure for military purposes, such as drone factories – not civilian purposes. But obviously its strikes impact the civilian population.
Danilin also says:
The Ukrainian leadership is using the population as a human shield, and the people’s plight as justification for the need for some kind of ceasefire. In reality, the goal of Zelenskyy’s office is to provide electricity not to civilians, but to military enterprises, including those producing drones.
But:
70% of thermal power plants and almost 40% of hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine have already been disabled, and a quick restoration is impossible.
Obviously, people are going to get very, very cold.
Are these people going to blame the Russians? In such situations, blame is usually expressed to the closest possible target - which happens to be Zelensky’s regime which doesn’t care about ordinary people. Propaganda is fine when the lights are on and the heating works.
But painful truths undermine belief.
In fact, many Ukrainian media outlets are beginning to indirectly acknowledged this discontent.publishing materials claiming that “Russia agreed to this truce for a reason” .
A reverse Maidan?
My advice to you. Get cats. They are really warm under the covers.
Staying Warm
Yes, I have friends to keep me warm.
In Canada, when I was a teenager, I had a large half wolf-husky which was helpful since we lived on the side of a mountain and it did get cold.
Now, I have Chappy and Ichi.
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Can you correct your dates for the ceasefire to January /February instead of September?
Sharp analysis of the OODA loop application here. The Boyd framework really does explain why Western analysts keep misreading Putin's responses as weakness when they're actuallystrategic patience. Watching Zelensky request something assuming it'd be refused and then getting exactly what he asked for but on terms that weaken his position is pretty textbook overshoot. The timing with the nuclear plant shutdown adds another layer most coverage misses.