Sharp analysis of the OODA loop application here. The Boyd framework really does explain why Western analysts keep misreading Putin's responses as weakness when they're actuallystrategic patience. Watching Zelensky request something assuming it'd be refused and then getting exactly what he asked for but on terms that weaken his position is pretty textbook overshoot. The timing with the nuclear plant shutdown adds another layer most coverage misses.
Good point, I'd add a psychological reaction to that: a deeply ingrained need for instant gratification that can be very often seen in many articles and comments - people demanding immediate and spectacular carpet bombings of Oreshniks on half the planet, for example - rendering observers completely incapable of thinking more than one move at a time, a LOT of copium and magical thinking, and the compulsive liar's dilemma: when his lies get uncovered, his only resort is to lie more and more often. Put all of them together with the OODA loop mentioned and you have the complete clusterfuck that is the Western "analyst" environment.
(I have no respect at all for most of the Western "elite", including military, financial, political, and even journalist classes. To me, they reek of arrested development - behaving like entitled, spoiled, selfish little children. The British officer mentioned in the article is projecting and applying a TON of wishful thinking, for example, which is a behaviour one would expect of a 10 years old caught skipping school, not of a supposedly rational and mature adult)
On January 27 President Donald Trump (lead image) announced: “In June, we obliterated Iran’s nuclear capacity in Operation Midnight Hammer. You saw that. People have been waiting for 22 years to do that, and we were right at the end. They were about a month away from having a nuclear weapon. We had to do it. And just — and by the way, there’s another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now, so we’ll see.”
The contradiction between the “obliteration” of the Iran threat seven months ago and the resumption of Trump’s attack now has drawn no Kremlin response.
On January 13, the Foreign Ministry condemned the regime change operation by the US then under way inside Iran. “Hostile external forces,” declared Maria Zakharova, the Ministry spokesman, “are seeking to exploit the mounting public tension to destabilise and undermine the Iranian state…We unequivocally condemn the subversive external interference in Iran’s internal political processes… The threats emanating from Washington regarding further military strikes against the Islamic Republic are categorically unacceptable.”
As the internal regime change operation was defeated, Trump has retaliated with the escalation of his military strike capacity outside Iran’s borders.
The Iranian response to this is to threaten the strategy long understood in Washington to be the killer of US presidents at election time – blood and oil. That is the combination of sharply rising US battle casualties and spikes in the price of crude oil and retail gasoline at the pump ahead of mid-term and presidential elections.
“A limited [US] strike is an illusion”, announced Ali Shamkani, representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Iran’s equivalent of the US National Security Council or the Russian Security Council. “Any military action by America, of any kind and at any level,” Shamkani has said, “will be considered the start of a war, and the response will be immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented, directed at the aggressor, at the heart of Tel Aviv, and at all who support the aggressor.” Shamkani posted this on the evening of Wednesday, January 28.
Two days later, Friday January 30, Ali Larijani, went to Moscow and presented the full Iranian war plan to President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. Larijani, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is the current Secretary of the Iranian Security Council.
This was the Kremlin sequence: Putin’s telephone calls to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on January 16; a summit meeting at the Kremlin with the UAE ruler, Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan (MBZ), on January 29; and then the January 30 meeting with Larijani. The Kremlin record reveals no photograph of the Larijani meeting and no communiqué of their agenda or the participation in the talks of military officers from the Russian and Iranian sides.
Something contradictory in this. Helmer claims it is "a warning to Trump to call off his bluff and to Khamenei not to call it." But if Iran's choice is surrender or die then clearly Russia is saying Trump is not bluffing.
Furthermore, I find it hard to imagine that Russia is going to be so acquiescent in the fall of Iran and the threat that would pose to its southern flank. Not to mention the inevitable loss of the North-South corridor, China's main BRI route to Europe, and the dagger in the heart of BRICS.
I normally like Helmer but he seems to be becoming increasingly pessimistic of late.
tRump is a humanitarian regarding Ukronazistan because he has a nazi mindset. Regarding Gaza, tRump's not a humanitarian because he's is a war criminal accomplice (vassal?) to izrael.
Sinceramente yo creo que tanto Rusia como China están evitando la guerra mundial, que es lo que quiere EEUU para recuperar su economía, (robándonos más aún a sus aliados con la excusa de la economía de guerra) por eso sus respuestas son mínimas. En cuanto a Putin, ha respetado al máximo las infraestructuras de la parte de Ucrania con la que se va a quedar, pero la parte que no quiere, el occidente ucraniano, la está haciendo picadillo. Y cada vez que Zelensky se hace la víctima reclamando dinero a la Unión Europea en lugar de actuar como el presidente de un país que ha perdido la guerra, le lanza otro bombazo al corazón de su economía. Posiblemente Putin, Xi y los políticos europeos, están esperando que Trump pierda en las elecciones de medio término para que todo vuelva ser lo mismo que antes. o sea un gatopardismo de libro, pero sin estruendos. No se si eso es un actuar autista como dices tú, pero es inteligente. De los estadounidenses no se puede esperar inteligencia solo brutalidad, ahora ya sin caretas.
Can you correct your dates for the ceasefire to January /February instead of September?
Thank you soooooooo much. I finished writing this around 3 AM last night and I guess I was tired! (Excuses, excuses...) I have corrected it!
Appreciate all your work!
Sharp analysis of the OODA loop application here. The Boyd framework really does explain why Western analysts keep misreading Putin's responses as weakness when they're actuallystrategic patience. Watching Zelensky request something assuming it'd be refused and then getting exactly what he asked for but on terms that weaken his position is pretty textbook overshoot. The timing with the nuclear plant shutdown adds another layer most coverage misses.
Good point, I'd add a psychological reaction to that: a deeply ingrained need for instant gratification that can be very often seen in many articles and comments - people demanding immediate and spectacular carpet bombings of Oreshniks on half the planet, for example - rendering observers completely incapable of thinking more than one move at a time, a LOT of copium and magical thinking, and the compulsive liar's dilemma: when his lies get uncovered, his only resort is to lie more and more often. Put all of them together with the OODA loop mentioned and you have the complete clusterfuck that is the Western "analyst" environment.
(I have no respect at all for most of the Western "elite", including military, financial, political, and even journalist classes. To me, they reek of arrested development - behaving like entitled, spoiled, selfish little children. The British officer mentioned in the article is projecting and applying a TON of wishful thinking, for example, which is a behaviour one would expect of a 10 years old caught skipping school, not of a supposedly rational and mature adult)
Ummmm "The moratorium began midnight September 30 and will expire September 2."
Someone just remarked on that. Thank you for the correction. I revised the at 3 AM! Don't know know why I wrote "September".... Anyway, it's fixed now
Oh, god, the geriatric 5 D Judo Putin!
The Kremlin Editorial for Iran is Surrender or Die
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2026/01/30/the-kremlin-editorial-for-iran-is-surrender-or-die/
On January 27 President Donald Trump (lead image) announced: “In June, we obliterated Iran’s nuclear capacity in Operation Midnight Hammer. You saw that. People have been waiting for 22 years to do that, and we were right at the end. They were about a month away from having a nuclear weapon. We had to do it. And just — and by the way, there’s another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now, so we’ll see.”
The contradiction between the “obliteration” of the Iran threat seven months ago and the resumption of Trump’s attack now has drawn no Kremlin response.
On January 13, the Foreign Ministry condemned the regime change operation by the US then under way inside Iran. “Hostile external forces,” declared Maria Zakharova, the Ministry spokesman, “are seeking to exploit the mounting public tension to destabilise and undermine the Iranian state…We unequivocally condemn the subversive external interference in Iran’s internal political processes… The threats emanating from Washington regarding further military strikes against the Islamic Republic are categorically unacceptable.”
As the internal regime change operation was defeated, Trump has retaliated with the escalation of his military strike capacity outside Iran’s borders.
The Iranian response to this is to threaten the strategy long understood in Washington to be the killer of US presidents at election time – blood and oil. That is the combination of sharply rising US battle casualties and spikes in the price of crude oil and retail gasoline at the pump ahead of mid-term and presidential elections.
“A limited [US] strike is an illusion”, announced Ali Shamkani, representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Iran’s equivalent of the US National Security Council or the Russian Security Council. “Any military action by America, of any kind and at any level,” Shamkani has said, “will be considered the start of a war, and the response will be immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented, directed at the aggressor, at the heart of Tel Aviv, and at all who support the aggressor.” Shamkani posted this on the evening of Wednesday, January 28.
Two days later, Friday January 30, Ali Larijani, went to Moscow and presented the full Iranian war plan to President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. Larijani, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is the current Secretary of the Iranian Security Council.
This was the Kremlin sequence: Putin’s telephone calls to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on January 16; a summit meeting at the Kremlin with the UAE ruler, Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan (MBZ), on January 29; and then the January 30 meeting with Larijani. The Kremlin record reveals no photograph of the Larijani meeting and no communiqué of their agenda or the participation in the talks of military officers from the Russian and Iranian sides.
Something contradictory in this. Helmer claims it is "a warning to Trump to call off his bluff and to Khamenei not to call it." But if Iran's choice is surrender or die then clearly Russia is saying Trump is not bluffing.
Furthermore, I find it hard to imagine that Russia is going to be so acquiescent in the fall of Iran and the threat that would pose to its southern flank. Not to mention the inevitable loss of the North-South corridor, China's main BRI route to Europe, and the dagger in the heart of BRICS.
I normally like Helmer but he seems to be becoming increasingly pessimistic of late.
Paulo, thank you very much for sharing that information and link. You sent me down a long rabbit hole.
tRump is a humanitarian regarding Ukronazistan because he has a nazi mindset. Regarding Gaza, tRump's not a humanitarian because he's is a war criminal accomplice (vassal?) to izrael.
September ?
Januuary / February. Sorry..... Fixed now!
Sinceramente yo creo que tanto Rusia como China están evitando la guerra mundial, que es lo que quiere EEUU para recuperar su economía, (robándonos más aún a sus aliados con la excusa de la economía de guerra) por eso sus respuestas son mínimas. En cuanto a Putin, ha respetado al máximo las infraestructuras de la parte de Ucrania con la que se va a quedar, pero la parte que no quiere, el occidente ucraniano, la está haciendo picadillo. Y cada vez que Zelensky se hace la víctima reclamando dinero a la Unión Europea en lugar de actuar como el presidente de un país que ha perdido la guerra, le lanza otro bombazo al corazón de su economía. Posiblemente Putin, Xi y los políticos europeos, están esperando que Trump pierda en las elecciones de medio término para que todo vuelva ser lo mismo que antes. o sea un gatopardismo de libro, pero sin estruendos. No se si eso es un actuar autista como dices tú, pero es inteligente. De los estadounidenses no se puede esperar inteligencia solo brutalidad, ahora ya sin caretas.