Europe: chicken in a coop

If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost Middle America Lyndon Johnson.

Cronkite is gone. Instead, we have Politico. And when you’ve lost Politco, you have also lost Middle America, which is constantly being lost. Maybe just homeless.

Politico writes:

… nuclear deterrence,” doesn’t require assurance that disaster will occur, only fear that it might.

These commentators (Ukraine's "boosters"seem to believe our ability to deter Russia relieves us of the burden of being deterred by them — like playing chicken without comprehending that the risk of collision is mutual.

This logic is deranged under any circumstances but especially in the case of Ukraine, where the balance of resolve between the U.S. and Russia is overwhelmingly in the latter’s favor. ｂ

The risk of nuclear war may be low, but its apocalyptic consequences demand we labor to keep it that way.

When Americans talk about nuclear war in Europe, they are talking about the use of tactical nukes with military targets. 9/11 killed 3000 people. How about a 20 kt explosion striking New York? That would be bad for business.

But a limited nuclear war in Europe? Who cares about Poles and Lithuanians and Romanians? How many Americans can find those countries on map.

After D-Day, in just two months, the Americans killed up to 60000 French people, with indiscriminate bombing of cities like Caen.

Then there was Dresden. Estimates vary. But generally 100,000 to 250,000.

So the US might be willing to waste European lives if that somehow provided the nation with a “win”.

Only, the winner would be Russia. NATO would be destroyed very quickly—in a few days -- and with it every American base. Middle America wouldn’t like that.

Russia’s nonstrategic nuclear weapons are not only more numerous but also more versatile than America’s, many of which can be delivered only from the air (making their credibility partly dependent on Western air superiority). Russia is building an arsenal including not just ground-to-ground missiles but also “antiship and antisubmarine missiles, torpedoes, and depth charges,

Sounds bad . It’s worse than that. Bad, badder, baddest.

Russia has nearly a 10:1 advantage over the United States and NATO in non-strategic (i.e., low-yield and short-range) nuclear weapons (NSNWs)

While Russia has credible defenses against Western weapons until the US gets a hypersonic arsenal – and perhaps not even then – Europe is a fat chicken waiting for slaughter.

Politico uses the “playing chicken’ trope. It doesn’t want to admit the truth. Russia is NOT “playing chicken”. While Europe is maybe a fat cluck-cluck in the American coop, Russia is a fox.

Not that “Middle America” wants to hear that.

Special Report

Many thanks to my coffee buyers, especially to those who write me encouraging messages, criticisms, or suggestions. I want to reply to all those messages.

It takes time since I tend to ramble a bit, personalizing those replies— which I enjoy! I also am using this input to modify the next installment. So I take your ideas seriously.

My idea in writing these two special reports was to put the advent of a new global civilizational consensus — egalitarian, democratic, international multipolarity—in context, along with corresponding collapse of American hegemony.

There are many aspects to the new world order shaping up- and many writers such as Hudson, Todd, Piketty, Arrighi, et al — thinkers whose names people know along with what the media say about them —but whose ideas are complex and nuanced. Or even misunderstood as is the case with even Adam Smith.

No, Wikipedia is not much help.

I try to put their writings — which have evolved over time — in perspective. They all related to each other because they are all dealing with the same beast.

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HEGEMONY

_- Julian