As you can see from my SouthFront video, there’s a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Easefire?
I call it an “easefire” because it just makes it easier for Israel to murder more people. Israel ,handily defeated in its invasion of Lebanon, is not going to “cease” shooting and bombing — just ease things for its battered forces temporarily . It will disentangle itself from ground operations and maybe also “ease” up on bombing Hezbollah but continue more selectively since one of the conditions of this armistice is that Hezbollah demilitarize - which they won’t do.
In other words, Israel will keep on bombing Hezbollah and assassinating leaders— . It will simply reduce the attacks on Lebanese civilians, which earn it bad press.
“Easefire” gives Israel a little more elbowroom to complete its genocide of the Palestinians, also to annex the West Bank and maybe extend its dominion a little further north from the Golan in Syria.
We are in the Eye of the Storm.
Mike Hampton
Mike Hampton, here on Substack, who I encourage you to follow, wrote a great report:
Today, at 0200 GMT, a USA/France brokered ceasefire began between Israel and Lebanon. Strangely, no copy of the deal is yet available but is said to include a 60-day implementation period during which:
Israel will leave Lebanon.
Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River, which is up to 30km away from the border with Israel.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will act as a peacekeeping force, replacing Hezbollah in the evacuated area.
This means that:
The USA and France are anti-war and anti-colonialism nations without agenda except for peace and human rights in the Middle East.
The Israeli’s have won their war against Lebanon.
Hezbollah is defeated.
Netanyahu is an honest man.
Palestine is screwed.
Or:
The USA and France are pretending peace like Germany and France did to Russia regarding Ukraine with the Minsky II agreement in 2015.
Hezbollah has inflicted such severe injury on Israeli troops that they need to either regroup, or focus only on Palestine.
The main intention is to weaken Hezbollah via the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Netanyahu misleads.
Palestine is screwed
That lays things out succinctly. The main point is that the “Ceasefire “ is intended to screw Palestine —that genocide will continue in one form or another.
Will Israel succeed?
I doubt it very much. What Israel is doing should be obvious, not only to Hezbollah - but to Hamas, the Arab Street, Syria, and Iran and most of the world.
The Israelis have declared victory over Hezbollah, equating, it appears, war crimes with military accomplishment.
Hezbollah was very clearly winning. Just not in the business of killing innocent people.
Some say that the Israelis will use what will likely be a very brief pause to replenish supplies — but what were they short on?
Uncle Samuel gave them everything they needed, faster than Amazon. Look Mommy a bunker bomb!
No, the Zionists just needed to get out of Southern Lebanon, and they wanted a cessation of Hezbollah’s missile and drone strikes using ever more sophisticated weapons that were doing serious damage for the first time.
Playing for time
Time is not on Israel’s side.
Hezbollah know this and will play along for ahile to replenish supplies of even better weaponry.
Same goes for the Axis of Resistance, which is not party to the deal of course.
The Houthis will keep up the pressure, hurting the Israeli economy.
And Iran is waiting for just the right moment, which would be when the Israelis appear (to the Iranian side) as violating the ceasefire agreement. You can always count on the Zionists to act in bad faith.
Iran’s long awaited strike. Santa will launch hypersonic missiles this year.
No, I know ….Israel doesn’t celebrate Xmas. Nor do the Iranians. But by coincidence Hanukah this year is December 25. (ending January 2nd). Its’ called “the Festival of Lights” - and maybe a few missile lighting up the skies is just what you need.
In a statement on Wednesday, the movement warned that it had prepared more than 300 defense lines south of the Litani River, saying its fighters, who have been deployed to each spot, were at the highest level of their readiness in terms of fighting force, equipment, and capabilities.
“The Islamic Resistance Operations Room confirms that its fighters from various military specialties will remain fully prepared to deal with the Israeli enemy’s ambitions and attacks,” it asserted.
“Their eyes will continue to follow the movements and withdrawals of the enemy’s forces beyond the borders, and their hands will remain on the trigger, in defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty and for the sake of the dignity and honor of its people,” the group noted.
Wait a second. Hezbollah has 300 defense lines SOUTH of the Litani! The Easefire Deal says they must retreat NORTH of the river. A few problems already. Already there seem to be different understandings of this “agreement”. Here’s Israel’s. Note that this agreement does NOT come into effect for 60 days! In the meantime that pink area is full of people with guns and murderous intent.
And I wonder how many Lebanese army soldiers lost a loved one to Israeli bombing.
Oh, what could go wrong?
Hezbollah, or any other armed movement in Lebanon, will not carry out any offensive action against Israel. Ummm…what about “defensive” .
Israel will not carry out any offensive action against targets in Lebanon, including on the ground, in the air and at sea. So Israel has two months to stop killing? Oh, yeah, they only do “defensive”.
Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. So, when has Israel paid any attention to the UN or International Law?
The Lebanese army and the Lebanese security forces will be the only armed groups authorized to operate in southern Lebanon. As I said, the Israelis’ indiscriminate bombing in Lebanon wiped out a lot of families.
Sale, supply and production of weapons in Lebanon will be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese government. It always was. But….since when did that matter?
All unauthorized facilities involved in the production of weapons and their accessories will be dismantled, as well as infrastructure and military positions. Unauthorized weapons that do not comply with these obligations will be confiscated. All Hezbollah facilities are (strictly speaking) unauthorized. And if you can’t get Americans to give up their guns, just try to get the Shi’a to give up theirs?
A committee will be established that will be acceptable to Israel and Lebanon, which will supervise and assist in ensuring the enforcement of the agreement. The enforcement will involve, among others, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The FAFO Four. Who trusts them?
Israel and Lebanon will report any possible violation of the commitments to the aforementioned committee and UNIFIL. Ah…UNIFIL…the same people the IDF were attacking in Lebanon.
Lebanese military forces will be deployed along all borders and crossing points in the country. That’s OK. Hezbollah cross those points mostly with missiles and drones ..
Israel will gradually withdraw its forces into Israeli territory in a period of up to 60 days. OK. Nothing’s happening for 2 months. Lots of time for fecal matter to hit the fan.
During this period of time, Hezbollah operatives will withdraw to the north of the Litani River, while the armed forces that will be allowed to stay in this area will be the Lebanese Armed Forces and the UNIFIL force. In other words, Hezbollah will withdraw in 60 days IF the truce lasts —which is unlikely— and be replaced by the LAF and UNIFIL— an open invitation for the Israelis to attack again .
Israel will retain "complete military freedom of action" to attack Lebanon in the event of a violation of the agreement by Hezbollah or another entity in Lebanon. If a pigeon shits on Tel Aviv, F35s will drop bunker busters on hospitals in Beirut. Pigeons are “another entity”
A buffer zone will not be established between the villages of South Lebanon and the settlements on the conflict line. Instead, the US will promote indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to reach a recognized land border. Good luck with that. As long as Israel occupies the divided village of Ghajar, the Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Chouba Hills – in that small area along the border between Lebanon and Syria’s Golan Heights, occupied by Israel in 1967—there will be war. This is not a problem that’s going away.
In other words, this is just the eye of the storm.
Special Article
Yes, I am still working on that Coffee Buyer’s Special Article about leadership and what it means for the world at this point. That requires research. I have to look at references to find out backgrounds and history, which means separating fact from fiction.
Sometimes the more famous a person is the less you really know.
But as you get into details, patterns emerge. It will take me a while. For those interested in my take on Putin, read my early article “The Tau of Vladimir Putin”.
I guess this is Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving! Every day of life is something to be thankful for you
Please buy Ichi and Chappy and me Thanksgiving coffees. Click here.
Israhell will do some sort of incursion and it will be blamed on Hezbollah!
Julian, there is great anxiety over whether Hezbollah is abandoning Gaza. The NYT is reporting that Israel destroyed Hezbollah. Sources here on Substack say Hezbollah pushed Israel back. It’s very hard to see clearly. Do you think Hezbollah has backed away from conflict with Israel? I am seeing comparisons to Algeria, that it took decades to drive out the French. Is Algeria a proper comparison?