They must have been successful, because between last night and this morning a joint US-UK air-force launched airstrikes in Yemen, but I will cover this in my next article, together with some other interesting developments.
Thank you for this information. I had seen these things but they are so useful for others here. I hope they all visit your site and read you excellent articles.
"No one appreciates the very special genius of your conversation as the dog does". Christopher Morley.I lost my 95 lbs of Boxer-Pit Bull 20 months ago. And I still miss him. The wife cried for 2 weeks. He truly was a special creature. We solved many of the worlds problems sitting up on the balcony out in the country.
My cat Ichi appreciates my conversation. He thinks he is a dog. But he doesn't think my conversation if genius. He thinks I am a bit slow. I mean, how many times, does he have to tell me he wants the kibble in the gold packs -- not the silver ones?
I would have a glass of Merlot when discussing the worlds problem with Turner. In spite of that he still thought I was a genius. We named him Turner because he wouldn't answer to Hooch. How many know what I mean?
The problem as he analyses is: HOW THE F#CK DO WE LET ZELENSKY STOP THE BLOODY WAR...?
The situation that i want to bring in focus here is:
NO NATO Nations will (nor CAN) bring boots to the ground in Ukraine.
Correctly Scott says: Russia cannot afford nor does it wish to start an offensive to take Odessa and the Black Sea Coast.
But my sensing points me to the DeepState/Pentagon wish to keep Odessa and the Black Sea in their control. I assume Putin shares that sensing. (Or intelligence)
So when Zelensky starts talking to Russia, a deal can be made that prevents that and Odessa can remain officially New-Ukraine (smaller but independent within the borders of the Surrender-treaty.
The problem that Putin (and i) see is if Zelensky does NOT want to really negotiate...
What Russia has in store in that case: 100.000 fully trained troops ready to go to the frontlines and the Army-group South has far too many man, so all 130.000 are ready to go West.
The group Centre will take on Zaporizhia now soon and can do that and establish a bridgehead to the west of the Dnieper. Protecting the ZNPP.
Those 230.000 i mentioned can do the (long) stretch from there to Transnistria and cut of the supply-line from Romania-Odessa to Kiev.
The Supply-line from Black Sea and Romania/Moldova to Odessa has already been under heavy fire from the Russian Aviation and Navy, they have destroyed -and even sunk- NATO-bulk carriers.
It could be followed-up by an Areal/Naval invasion south of Odessa, to seek contact with Transnistria if needed. That would cut the supply from Romania (and air-support) to Odessa and Moldova It would then not be necessary to attack Odessa/Nikolaev. They are then cut off completely.
OK... My cent. I did not mention my percentages of probability i sense, to not distract from the narrative i tried to offer.
OK. That's it then.
Sander
PS. A probability is, that Zelensky is sabotaging Talks with Russia, to punish/blackmail the west for not supporting him, so they will lose Odessa... If that is true, the west can do weird things to prevent that to happen...
You have mentioned Odessa many times and its importance. You were absolutely right. It is VERY important!!! Of course, Russia doesn't want to undertake an offensive to take Odessa. But not for the reasons Ritter assumes (I think--- I need to watch the video again). Simply put, Once the Donbas and Kherson are fully is liberated and the UAF reduced to nothing-- then Odessa and the South will be cut off. Odessa is a Russian city and the locals have been much abused by the Banderites --who, remembering Kursk --and the 80% casualty rate will scurry for the safety of Romania or Bulgaria or Moldova.
Odessa must become part of Russia from at geo-strategic point of view -- to balance Turkey, which is on-again and off-again. And Putin has said many times it is a "Russian city".. In addition, it needs to be Russian to balance Romania and Bulgaria, and perhaps Moldova.
For this reason, the Russians are accelerating their movements in the Donbass. Urban warfare is no easy task but it seems they have the edge. In Kursk, the relative casualty rate is 15:1 - not counting mercenaries. Count them and it is 20:1.
The Trump plan is to dump Zelensky and install a new government (under US control) rumours say. Maybe. But the Russians cannot permit that.
There are many options and alternatives, a whole bunch...
When there are 'Peace talks' the two sides can negotiate, they can say: We control Odessa, but we give you free trade passage through its harbours. Ot things like that.
I am afraid Putin does not trust promises by the US in that category (remembering Minsk 2).
The frontline exists from Zaporizhia to Kherson, there are 130,000 men there. They have to somehow cross the Dnieper and the best way is from Zaporizhia to the South-West, protecting the ZNPP. Important strategic point.
After taking Kherson, there are not many KM left to Transnistria...
Mykolaiv however is a hard nut, but also the point where all roads come together, so very strategic.
The idea is to cut north of Mykolaiv all roads (and train) to the north. When the Ukraine Army has collapsed and NO NATO boots come to help, which is >75% sure, Russians can reach Transnistria without problems. See map 2.
The supply line with NATO-supplies from the black sea goes up the Danube river (border between Ukraine and Romania), from the harbour to the railway that goes through Romania to Moldova.
The roads and railway along the coast direction Odessa are vulnerable or even unused.
The railway through Romania goes to Moldova. But it is connected to the (restored) railway to Odessa and from there Lvov and from there Kiev... There are even civilian tickets you can buy to use that train. (the railway does not go through Transnistria, the map is wrong in that.)
But to cut off Odessa (and Mykolaiv) from supply from NATO, it is needed to invade the Black Sea coast a bit south off Odessa, or from Transnistria south-east to that coast (or both) Air-defences then block any F16 activity over Odessa or the black sea.
It is clear this will take time. So it is only needed when peace-talks do not work.
Putin is NOT going to wait for such an obvious trap.
You suggest Trump will get rid of Zelensky... Think twice... In his Revenge-Sabotage plan he has support from the NAZI-forces. How will Trump force him ? Assassination ? while protected by the NAZI-gangs ? The flow of goods and money has been dried up by the Biden administration already.
Maybe i am wrong is this estimate, but i give it another >75%.
I am bad in Narratives, i often get lost in those, but i am strong in detailed facts and have my own way to remember and recollect them. So i saw the mention of carriers on the map by William and knew they were not there NOW. And i am very strong in solving conflicting info.
About the B52's...
When they are based at least 2,000 KM (or more) from their targets, they can launch from the air: AGM-129 advanced cruise missiles and AGM-86A air-launched cruise missiles. (Some even with Nukes)
Air to ground. But those are easily intercepted (still), not hypersonic nor stealthy enough.
When they are based in the Gulf region, or even Egypt, they are far too vulnerable to be any threat.
Normally they are used from Guam and launch their missiles at max range. As was the case against Syria 2018.
Using those missiles in air-to-air situations is difficult. The Radars in the old B52s don't have the range and function for that.
So i agree those B52s are not meant to be USED, but just as a token support for Bibi.
An open question is: How many of those Air-launched Cruisemissiles does the US have ?
Good question. And they are olllllllllldddd... Russian AD has been continuously upgraded. So today's S400 is not the same as two years ago. Nor are the radars.
Oh man. Lots of phallic shit here. USA has, well, 14 Eyes and dozens of other vassal outposts. Satellites and vast sophisticated weapons not yet in the mainstream. Anyhow, fun stuff talking about this man woman ecology killing stuff. And no talk of agua. Middle East is a dry dying place in many respects. The battlefield is far and wide.
You ain't seen nothing yet from Israel and DARPA and, well, hundreds of companies in USA working on drones. Ya think those bio weapons are a thing of the past?
I knew those naval deployments everybody was losing their minds over was just posturing from the beginning, but then again I was once a sailor on just such a naval deployment over 30 years ago, and knew it for what it was when I saw it again. Nothing has changed except missile technology.
Fun fact: The greatest naval deployment EVER was the American invasion of Okinawa in 1945. It made D-Day look like a trial run. It's also why Japanese kamikazes did their greatest damage then--they had so many targets it was hard to miss if they weren't blown up in the air.
The Navy KNEW the Iranians and Houthis were perfectly capable of sinking an aircraft carrier or two, which is why they stayed out of the Red Sea and either in the Arabian Sea or the westerly part of the eastern Med.
As for the B-52 Stratofortress, it was the Ultimate Weapon in the 1950s and 1960s; by the 1970s ICBMs and submarines had already made it obsolete. The only reason we still use the things is MIC grift. The same can be said about aircraft carriers; their day is done, which means the Chinese are boondoggling by building some of the things.
The Chinese can make mistakes, too. Isn't that nice?
Speaking of Hezbollah's Fateh-110 missile, I have a couple of videos (specs + "demo") in one of my previous articles: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/trump-wins-by-a-landslide-so-spoke
By the way, the Yemeni Armed Forces launched another ballistic missile against Israel the other day, as I reported here: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/yemen-targets-israel-again-with-ballistic
They must have been successful, because between last night and this morning a joint US-UK air-force launched airstrikes in Yemen, but I will cover this in my next article, together with some other interesting developments.
In the meantime, you can catch up on the stern warning issued by Iran to the West here: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/iran-issues-stern-warning-in-case
Thank you for this information. I had seen these things but they are so useful for others here. I hope they all visit your site and read you excellent articles.
Excellent analysis Julian and the best analysts admit their mistakes.
"No one appreciates the very special genius of your conversation as the dog does". Christopher Morley.I lost my 95 lbs of Boxer-Pit Bull 20 months ago. And I still miss him. The wife cried for 2 weeks. He truly was a special creature. We solved many of the worlds problems sitting up on the balcony out in the country.
My first dog was a boxer. Love'm.
My cat Ichi appreciates my conversation. He thinks he is a dog. But he doesn't think my conversation if genius. He thinks I am a bit slow. I mean, how many times, does he have to tell me he wants the kibble in the gold packs -- not the silver ones?
I would have a glass of Merlot when discussing the worlds problem with Turner. In spite of that he still thought I was a genius. We named him Turner because he wouldn't answer to Hooch. How many know what I mean?
🥺they are so🐱🐶 special that will never be forgotten 💔
Julian...
I have something that's a bit out of context here.
But it is very hot and related to the situation in Ukraine.
As intro i use a small part of this Scott Ritter interview by Nima Alkhorshid (Dialogue Works).
The video starts at the right point. Subject: NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, how to stop the fighting.
->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RO_YVq-eyU&t=784s
I agree with most Scott says.
The problem as he analyses is: HOW THE F#CK DO WE LET ZELENSKY STOP THE BLOODY WAR...?
The situation that i want to bring in focus here is:
NO NATO Nations will (nor CAN) bring boots to the ground in Ukraine.
Correctly Scott says: Russia cannot afford nor does it wish to start an offensive to take Odessa and the Black Sea Coast.
But my sensing points me to the DeepState/Pentagon wish to keep Odessa and the Black Sea in their control. I assume Putin shares that sensing. (Or intelligence)
So when Zelensky starts talking to Russia, a deal can be made that prevents that and Odessa can remain officially New-Ukraine (smaller but independent within the borders of the Surrender-treaty.
The problem that Putin (and i) see is if Zelensky does NOT want to really negotiate...
What Russia has in store in that case: 100.000 fully trained troops ready to go to the frontlines and the Army-group South has far too many man, so all 130.000 are ready to go West.
The group Centre will take on Zaporizhia now soon and can do that and establish a bridgehead to the west of the Dnieper. Protecting the ZNPP.
Those 230.000 i mentioned can do the (long) stretch from there to Transnistria and cut of the supply-line from Romania-Odessa to Kiev.
The Supply-line from Black Sea and Romania/Moldova to Odessa has already been under heavy fire from the Russian Aviation and Navy, they have destroyed -and even sunk- NATO-bulk carriers.
It could be followed-up by an Areal/Naval invasion south of Odessa, to seek contact with Transnistria if needed. That would cut the supply from Romania (and air-support) to Odessa and Moldova It would then not be necessary to attack Odessa/Nikolaev. They are then cut off completely.
OK... My cent. I did not mention my percentages of probability i sense, to not distract from the narrative i tried to offer.
OK. That's it then.
Sander
PS. A probability is, that Zelensky is sabotaging Talks with Russia, to punish/blackmail the west for not supporting him, so they will lose Odessa... If that is true, the west can do weird things to prevent that to happen...
Just saying...
You have mentioned Odessa many times and its importance. You were absolutely right. It is VERY important!!! Of course, Russia doesn't want to undertake an offensive to take Odessa. But not for the reasons Ritter assumes (I think--- I need to watch the video again). Simply put, Once the Donbas and Kherson are fully is liberated and the UAF reduced to nothing-- then Odessa and the South will be cut off. Odessa is a Russian city and the locals have been much abused by the Banderites --who, remembering Kursk --and the 80% casualty rate will scurry for the safety of Romania or Bulgaria or Moldova.
Odessa must become part of Russia from at geo-strategic point of view -- to balance Turkey, which is on-again and off-again. And Putin has said many times it is a "Russian city".. In addition, it needs to be Russian to balance Romania and Bulgaria, and perhaps Moldova.
For this reason, the Russians are accelerating their movements in the Donbass. Urban warfare is no easy task but it seems they have the edge. In Kursk, the relative casualty rate is 15:1 - not counting mercenaries. Count them and it is 20:1.
The Trump plan is to dump Zelensky and install a new government (under US control) rumours say. Maybe. But the Russians cannot permit that.
IMO. I might be wrong. Tell me what you think!
Thank you for your reaction... I agree with you.
There are many options and alternatives, a whole bunch...
When there are 'Peace talks' the two sides can negotiate, they can say: We control Odessa, but we give you free trade passage through its harbours. Ot things like that.
I am afraid Putin does not trust promises by the US in that category (remembering Minsk 2).
By the way, take a look at map-1.
1->https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GcHK0f0XAAIdY93?format=jpg
The frontline exists from Zaporizhia to Kherson, there are 130,000 men there. They have to somehow cross the Dnieper and the best way is from Zaporizhia to the South-West, protecting the ZNPP. Important strategic point.
After taking Kherson, there are not many KM left to Transnistria...
Mykolaiv however is a hard nut, but also the point where all roads come together, so very strategic.
The idea is to cut north of Mykolaiv all roads (and train) to the north. When the Ukraine Army has collapsed and NO NATO boots come to help, which is >75% sure, Russians can reach Transnistria without problems. See map 2.
2->https://patrioty.org.ua/images/2024/08/15122329_besarabia_2.png
The supply line with NATO-supplies from the black sea goes up the Danube river (border between Ukraine and Romania), from the harbour to the railway that goes through Romania to Moldova.
The roads and railway along the coast direction Odessa are vulnerable or even unused.
See map 3.
3.->https://images.sawadee.nl/7d646c517bac47619c361119e61e18f9/7679/awm_1.jpg
The railway through Romania goes to Moldova. But it is connected to the (restored) railway to Odessa and from there Lvov and from there Kiev... There are even civilian tickets you can buy to use that train. (the railway does not go through Transnistria, the map is wrong in that.)
But to cut off Odessa (and Mykolaiv) from supply from NATO, it is needed to invade the Black Sea coast a bit south off Odessa, or from Transnistria south-east to that coast (or both) Air-defences then block any F16 activity over Odessa or the black sea.
It is clear this will take time. So it is only needed when peace-talks do not work.
Putin is NOT going to wait for such an obvious trap.
You suggest Trump will get rid of Zelensky... Think twice... In his Revenge-Sabotage plan he has support from the NAZI-forces. How will Trump force him ? Assassination ? while protected by the NAZI-gangs ? The flow of goods and money has been dried up by the Biden administration already.
Maybe i am wrong is this estimate, but i give it another >75%.
OK, my cent...
Sander
Thanks Julian.........
Surely if these weapons had landed in Iran, wouldn't we have seen smoke?
I listen to lots of experts on u-tube but I haven't heard anyone mention this?
They don't' mention it but it has been mentioned in the social media in Iran.
OK
Thanks.
Thank you for the update.
Don't worry.
I am bad in Narratives, i often get lost in those, but i am strong in detailed facts and have my own way to remember and recollect them. So i saw the mention of carriers on the map by William and knew they were not there NOW. And i am very strong in solving conflicting info.
About the B52's...
When they are based at least 2,000 KM (or more) from their targets, they can launch from the air: AGM-129 advanced cruise missiles and AGM-86A air-launched cruise missiles. (Some even with Nukes)
Air to ground. But those are easily intercepted (still), not hypersonic nor stealthy enough.
When they are based in the Gulf region, or even Egypt, they are far too vulnerable to be any threat.
Normally they are used from Guam and launch their missiles at max range. As was the case against Syria 2018.
Using those missiles in air-to-air situations is difficult. The Radars in the old B52s don't have the range and function for that.
So i agree those B52s are not meant to be USED, but just as a token support for Bibi.
An open question is: How many of those Air-launched Cruisemissiles does the US have ?
Keep up the good work !!
Sander
Good question. And they are olllllllllldddd... Russian AD has been continuously upgraded. So today's S400 is not the same as two years ago. Nor are the radars.
Oh man. Lots of phallic shit here. USA has, well, 14 Eyes and dozens of other vassal outposts. Satellites and vast sophisticated weapons not yet in the mainstream. Anyhow, fun stuff talking about this man woman ecology killing stuff. And no talk of agua. Middle East is a dry dying place in many respects. The battlefield is far and wide.
You ain't seen nothing yet from Israel and DARPA and, well, hundreds of companies in USA working on drones. Ya think those bio weapons are a thing of the past?
And geoengineering.....
https://open.substack.com/pub/paulokirk/p/copy-yeah-i-am-not-seeng-zionist?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5i319
I knew those naval deployments everybody was losing their minds over was just posturing from the beginning, but then again I was once a sailor on just such a naval deployment over 30 years ago, and knew it for what it was when I saw it again. Nothing has changed except missile technology.
Fun fact: The greatest naval deployment EVER was the American invasion of Okinawa in 1945. It made D-Day look like a trial run. It's also why Japanese kamikazes did their greatest damage then--they had so many targets it was hard to miss if they weren't blown up in the air.
The Navy KNEW the Iranians and Houthis were perfectly capable of sinking an aircraft carrier or two, which is why they stayed out of the Red Sea and either in the Arabian Sea or the westerly part of the eastern Med.
As for the B-52 Stratofortress, it was the Ultimate Weapon in the 1950s and 1960s; by the 1970s ICBMs and submarines had already made it obsolete. The only reason we still use the things is MIC grift. The same can be said about aircraft carriers; their day is done, which means the Chinese are boondoggling by building some of the things.
The Chinese can make mistakes, too. Isn't that nice?
Thanks for the correction Julian, you can’t believe how much of a relief it is to be reading this post, WW3 averted...for now.