Greater Israel, Greater Turkey

The endtimes of Erdogan.

The Information Jungle

You will notice that I am paying more and more attention to sites like that of the Duran and Larry Johnson and others—rather than the New York Times or the Washington Post or the BBC or the Economist or CNN or Newsweek-- which I read only for comic relief.

Well maybe not "relief" – certainly disbelief.

While I may sometimes disagree with Alexander Mercouris or Alex Christoforous or Larry Johnson or others, I feel they are honest people making an equally honest effort to get to the real facts of this very complicated world . They should be honored for this.

Also — we learn from disagreement.

Once upon a time, when I was a kid. Information was a carefully kept garden. With everything in its place, the grass cut, the walkways clean. Everything clean and neat. Now it's a tropical jungle . And watch where you tread. Your kids can you venture into it-- but maybe they won't survive to age 12.

Erdogan’s gambling addiction

Today I tuned into the Duran to hear the two Alexes talking about Syria and Turkey. It was an excellent discussion which I highly recommend. Both Alexander and Alex made some very good points, with which I agree.

One thing about gambles, though. The House always wins. And the House is Putin’s.

I agree with A&A about Turkey's goals - which have always been to make Syria a client state, driving out the Kurds, and weakening the influence of Iran—which I wrote about recently - the concept of a "Greater Turkey" -- which dovetails intellectually with Israel's "Greater Israel".

In my special articles, I write a lot about hegemony, why it happens, how it works.

If the US' aim is global hegemony Turkey and Israel seek local hegemony.

Every Turk knows about the Ottoman Empire and its power. But that empire fell. Still, it is there in the Turkish mind somewhere even though no sane person thinks that it can be recreated.

Still, the meme lives — and this quasi epigenetic cultural atavism has power.

Make America Great Again? Build Back Better? These concepts hark back to more glorious days, But the US will never have the kind of power it had in 1945 again.

For a while, with the fall of the USSR, Americans thought they might relive imagined glory. It is this histrionic “atavism”, as I call it, which fueled the NeoCons dream of the “End of History”, which I wrote about in my special articles, and which Alastair Crooke recently talks of in relation to his concept of the “Long War” — which I also wrote about.

In the end, as I and Crooke both agree, everything comes back to the “Heartland” . “Who controls the Heartland controls the world”,

Erdogan sees that geography favors Turkey — as it does few other countries in the area. And he wants Turkey to leverage that— expanding eastwards — which means taking Syria and a large chunk of Iraq and creating client states in Central Asia like Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan

He may not use the term “Greater Turkey” — but that’s what he is aiming for.

Israel, by contrast wants control of West Asian “Rimland - which also gives it access to the “Heartland”.

Zionists are taught to remember the ancient Israeli empire. They want Palestine for Israelis but vassal states beyond that.

Hegemony and Supremacism

All hegemonistic cultures are based on cultural and / or racial supremacism. Which means some peoples believe they have a monopoly on being human. Homo Americanism….and so on.

This was also the inspiration for Hitler’s notion of “Greater Germany”. Aryanism which is racial and cultural, as is Zionism, unlike Americanism which is cultural. .

Why is Erdogan so willing to lie and cheat? Because, he thinks, Turks were once exceptional and can be again. He does not have to follow other peoples rules and values.

The same applies to Netanyahu, of course - and most American politicians— whose notion of “Greater America” includes all of North and South America — as well as Europe and Japan.

As I write in my articles, it is a kind of psychopathy.

The Sino-Russian difference

Russia and China are different. For one thing — they ARE the “Heartland”, For another, they are the world’s most ethnically diverse countries, federated states, evolving out of recent war and revolution. As "the “Heartland” itself, they have everything they need right at hand. They are also collaborative cultures, taking advantage of “managed capitalism”.

Cultural supremacism, hegemonism and the like are self-destructive cultural mechanisms. They acre cultural cancers.

We can see the effects if such social sicknesses in the US. Also in Israel, now on the verge of economic and social collapse with rifts appearing between secular Zionists and the Orthodox, exacerbated by diverse cultural backgrounds.

In the case of Turkey, prosecuting a war in Syria can only weaken Turkey and undermine Erdogan’s leadership, already weakened by public perception of his behind-the-scenes support for Israel. .

By contrast, Russia and Iran - true “Heartland” states are going to be strengthened, not diminished.

This is where I part company with the two Alexes (although not with Crooke!).

Mercouris thinks that Erdogan has the upperhand, leverage over Russia that needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Russia.

He points out correctly that if Turkey opened the Dardanelles to American and NATO military vessels that would be a problem for Russia. Yes, but not like it would have been in 2022. Not so much in a few months…..

If NATO ships enter the Black see and show warlike intent, the only problem for the Russians is which hypersonic missiles the Russians choose. Kinzhal or Zircon?

Both will be upgraded using technologies developed for Oreshnik — which means “hazel switch” for disciplining recalcitrant kids . There are no defenses against these weapons. Let us keep in mind that a hypersonic missile can be devastating with an inert warhead, using kinetic energy alone.

By early next year, Russia will almost certainly have taken Odessa and the rest of the Black Sea coast. The Black Sea will be a Russian lake.

Syria

In the meantime, the fighting in Syria continues. HTS takes towns and villages - -then loses them, then retakes them. But in this fighting, they are taking heavy casualties. The SAA is using Russian strategy — not fighting for anything but strategic positions — and fighting to attrit the HTS and Turkish-organized terrorist brigades. The land is open and flat — there is no place to hide. The Russian Airforce, up until now, used minimally in Ukraine, is being used maximally in Syria.

As I said, Russia does not need Turkey more than Turkey needs Russia. It is a mutually beneficial economic relationship—and if Russia and Turkey really came to blows, the Turkish economy would collapse and Erdogan would be overthrown. it would hurt Russia too of course— but Russia has other options.

That said, Russia sees the bigger picture —a Heartland community. BRICS. It wants Turkey as part of that. The Turks are not Erdogan.

But Russia knows it takes time. Iran understand this too. Hence,their commitment to gradualist, evolutionary strategies. Americans always expect next-day deliver. But there is no Amazon for social and political change.

Crook and Flail

Remember my metaphor of the Crook and the Flail. Right now, Russia is using both. Oh…and a hazel switch.

Erdogan says he wants to talk.

Putin is not taking his calls - although Lavrov is talking to the Turkish foreign minister. Russia says it wants a peace under the “Astana Process”—Russian, Syria, Iran, and Turkey. But there won’t be any negotiations until the Islamic extremists have been destroyed. And perhaps the Kurds brought in the fold, away from American influence And Turkey will sit at the table in a baby chair.

The thousands of Iraqi resistance fighters flooding into Eastern Syria — armed and dangerous— are going to raise the threat level for the Americans.

With each day, as Russia moves forward in Syria and NATO provocations give them good reason to take all of Ukraine, or at least the parts they want, the balance of power shifts to Russia — and, by extension, to China.

There is therefore room for optimism. But Rome was not built in a day. Nor Russia. Nor Iran. Nor BRICS.

The US is like the Coliseum. It still stands. But the games are over. A good place for tourists.

Chappy This Weekend

Chappy is arriving this weekend with his “Mom” , who according to the rules of the Shelter must inspect my apartment.

I am hard at work catifying it and de-bachelorizing it. Not too easy. Technically, only married couples can adopt and there is an age limit — ummm….55. I am 78. BUT….this is Japan…..and I am a “gaijin” and no one can figure out my age. My “wife” has visited Chappy’s mom and that part seems fine .

Pray for us!

If you like my work , which will soon be supervised, not just by Ichi but by Chappy— please buy me a coffee.