I was thinking, just this morning, that it's high time some of the vast amounts of blood, destruction and chaos deliberately engineered by Washington came home to the US people. If they had to suffer even one percent of what the Syrian, Palestinian, Lebanese, or Ukrainian people have suffered, they would be offering Biden (and Trump) a choice between hanging and shooting.
Thanks for the update, and extra thanks for your generous admission of having been wrong.
Actually, as far as I can make out, all the commentators got this one completely wrong. After surviving since 2011 and fighting back bravely, why should the secular, somewhat democratic Syrian government be overthrown? It makes no sense to me, which I take to mean that I don't yet have full information.
By the way, I am not so sanguine about the Russian bases. There are a million ways to make such outposts untenable in a hostile country. For a start, where do they get food from? Even fresh water? How can they be sure that food is not poisoned? How do a few soldiers and a regiment or two of state-of-the-art jets resist thousands of irregulars who look like ordinary civilians until they open fire?
I think the only real question is whether the terrorists have a proper respect for (and fear of) Russia. Because you can be sure the Americans will be urging them to have no fear. And what about the Ukrainians fighting with the terrorists? They would simply love to shed Russian blood, overrun Russian bases, and perhaps capture some state-of-the-art equipment to offer to their NATO bosses.
Don’t be so hard on yourself Julian. Many of the good commentators, some of whom you occasionally mention, get it wrong. The difference between you and them is that you admit it and they rarely do, not in such a humble fashion anyway. People who behave with humility can generally be trusted. The main thing is, this is truly dreadful news. God help that country now that the Americans and that traitor Erdogan have had their way. It’s a sad day indeed. Thanks for the update.
The only trouble I can see with that is that Russia has already won in Ukraine anyway. "Negotiations", if they take place, will consist of the Russians producing a written agreement, and the Ukrainians signing it. (The Americans have no standing - except in the dock of a criminal court).
So why give away Syria? I have a strong feeling that we haven't heard the whole story yet.
I completely agree with everything you say. It's just that I don't see why Ukraine and Syria should be alternatives. With a steady eye and nerve Ukraine should be in the bag by next year. Looking at the forces Russia has, I imagine it could spare a powerful group for Syria. But then what? They don't want to get "bogged down" - something they have experience of. Mr Martyanov is right: there is no point in trying to help someone who has given up.
Dima at Military Summary has lost me since yesterday, with his panicky raving about how "Russia must choose". Balance and fairness are among his strong points, but I think he occasionally overdoes it and falls over backwards.
The U.S./NATO will never abandon Ukraine and the desire to "extend" Russia. Any "rump" Ukraine is a loss for Russia. Russia is struggling with the already significantly declined Ukrainian military. They can't even kick them out of KURSK! The U.S. has nothing but time.
On the subject of struggling....NATO couldn't even deal with a bunch on flipflop wearing Taliban types for 20 years (was it?) in Afghanistan... So even mighty militaries take their time, as in the case of Russia to minimise their own losses, but knock out those expertly trained NATO proxies from a distance wherever possible...🙏
It's a good theory. There was obviously some sort of deal, because the Syrian state showed no (serious) resistance at any point. I assume commanders were bought with cash and promises of safety/position if the handover went smoothly.
Agree, Syria collapsed too quickly... If that is the case, then (nearly) everything is so scripted...Ukraine is much more of a prize for Russia, than protecting Syria.
Maybe he evaluated his prospects as similar to Mr Yanukovych's in 2104. If the Russians hadn't launched a special military operation to rescue him and his family, they could have been killed or suffered God knows what indignities. When you're done, you're done. To rule a place like Syria for over 20 years in the face of everything Washington and Tel-Aviv (and Ankara) have thrown at him was a magnificent achievement. But you can't defend a regime without an army.
It wasn’t the bombing. It was sanctions and the taking of the oil fields by Washington leaving the army high and dry when it came to compensation. No money, no effective army?
So were a few others wrong. And a few who are often wrong got it right.
I wonder how many $$ were spent, as in Iraq, buying off the Syrian army? And what fresh hell will the Syrian people now get to live or flee? And where will the next round of escapees go?
I don't think anyone has "won" in this sense. It's just yet another successful coup operation by the US and Israel (and NATO allies).
I saw an X post saying that Assad had made it to Moscow and was given asylum. Don't know if that's true or not, but it's a happier ending than being shot down.
Thing got wrong fast once Russia and Iran decided to abandon Syria. And you know they knew beforehand how this would turn out , and likely agreed in some ways.
At least you admit it, which gives you a lot of credibility, and I am just as surprised as you are. I didn't expect Assad's regime to collapse so quickly. Clearly, something was happening in Syria that we either didn't know at all or did not understand.
I just hope it doesn't turn into another Libya. I can tell you there are a lot of Christian Syrian expats living here in NE Ohio and they're scared to death for their kin in Syria.
I was thinking, just this morning, that it's high time some of the vast amounts of blood, destruction and chaos deliberately engineered by Washington came home to the US people. If they had to suffer even one percent of what the Syrian, Palestinian, Lebanese, or Ukrainian people have suffered, they would be offering Biden (and Trump) a choice between hanging and shooting.
It's nearly 50 years since Peter Van Greenaway's sensational novel "Take the War to Washington", and the beliefs and outrage that simmered behind it seem to have died completely. https://www.amazon.com/Take-War-Washington-Peter-Greenaway/dp/0586041990
Thanks for the update, and extra thanks for your generous admission of having been wrong.
Actually, as far as I can make out, all the commentators got this one completely wrong. After surviving since 2011 and fighting back bravely, why should the secular, somewhat democratic Syrian government be overthrown? It makes no sense to me, which I take to mean that I don't yet have full information.
By the way, I am not so sanguine about the Russian bases. There are a million ways to make such outposts untenable in a hostile country. For a start, where do they get food from? Even fresh water? How can they be sure that food is not poisoned? How do a few soldiers and a regiment or two of state-of-the-art jets resist thousands of irregulars who look like ordinary civilians until they open fire?
I think the only real question is whether the terrorists have a proper respect for (and fear of) Russia. Because you can be sure the Americans will be urging them to have no fear. And what about the Ukrainians fighting with the terrorists? They would simply love to shed Russian blood, overrun Russian bases, and perhaps capture some state-of-the-art equipment to offer to their NATO bosses.
Don’t be so hard on yourself Julian. Many of the good commentators, some of whom you occasionally mention, get it wrong. The difference between you and them is that you admit it and they rarely do, not in such a humble fashion anyway. People who behave with humility can generally be trusted. The main thing is, this is truly dreadful news. God help that country now that the Americans and that traitor Erdogan have had their way. It’s a sad day indeed. Thanks for the update.
Those developments made me incredibly sad for the people of Lebanon and Syria. The only hope i have is that Israel is over-extending itself.
I have a different take on this:
These thugs who have taken Syria (for the moment) trained by the USA.
OWE no allegiance to ANY country.
Will this come back on the US and Israel.........yes I think so.
We go where reality takes us; which often may not be what we had in mind
Kudos
Via a PepeE Telegram post...
THE ART OF THE - SYRIAN - DEAL
Old-school former Deep State high-level source. Never failed me:
"There was a deal. Washington gets to do what it wants in the Middle East, Russia gets Ukraine. The new Washington has shown exceptional skill."
Facts will confirm it - or not.
The only trouble I can see with that is that Russia has already won in Ukraine anyway. "Negotiations", if they take place, will consist of the Russians producing a written agreement, and the Ukrainians signing it. (The Americans have no standing - except in the dock of a criminal court).
So why give away Syria? I have a strong feeling that we haven't heard the whole story yet.
By Ukraine being the prize, I mean the land base Russia wants over to Odessa, etc...leaving a minimal western rump state
I completely agree with everything you say. It's just that I don't see why Ukraine and Syria should be alternatives. With a steady eye and nerve Ukraine should be in the bag by next year. Looking at the forces Russia has, I imagine it could spare a powerful group for Syria. But then what? They don't want to get "bogged down" - something they have experience of. Mr Martyanov is right: there is no point in trying to help someone who has given up.
Dima at Military Summary has lost me since yesterday, with his panicky raving about how "Russia must choose". Balance and fairness are among his strong points, but I think he occasionally overdoes it and falls over backwards.
The U.S./NATO will never abandon Ukraine and the desire to "extend" Russia. Any "rump" Ukraine is a loss for Russia. Russia is struggling with the already significantly declined Ukrainian military. They can't even kick them out of KURSK! The U.S. has nothing but time.
On the subject of struggling....NATO couldn't even deal with a bunch on flipflop wearing Taliban types for 20 years (was it?) in Afghanistan... So even mighty militaries take their time, as in the case of Russia to minimise their own losses, but knock out those expertly trained NATO proxies from a distance wherever possible...🙏
It's a good theory. There was obviously some sort of deal, because the Syrian state showed no (serious) resistance at any point. I assume commanders were bought with cash and promises of safety/position if the handover went smoothly.
Agree, Syria collapsed too quickly... If that is the case, then (nearly) everything is so scripted...Ukraine is much more of a prize for Russia, than protecting Syria.
Was shocked when heard Assad had skedaggled. Especially after reading your reassuring piece. Axis of Resistance? Palestinians future?
Maybe he evaluated his prospects as similar to Mr Yanukovych's in 2104. If the Russians hadn't launched a special military operation to rescue him and his family, they could have been killed or suffered God knows what indignities. When you're done, you're done. To rule a place like Syria for over 20 years in the face of everything Washington and Tel-Aviv (and Ankara) have thrown at him was a magnificent achievement. But you can't defend a regime without an army.
And his army had been decimated by Israeli bombing over last few years
It wasn’t the bombing. It was sanctions and the taking of the oil fields by Washington leaving the army high and dry when it came to compensation. No money, no effective army?
Still news of officers high tailing it….? Did they have info no one else had?
Thanks for precision!
One point here.
These 'thugs' in Syria. Trained by the USA.
Are they loyal to the USA....I don't think so.
They are NOT loyal to anyone. In my view US is playing with fire.
I imagine the Americans are relying on the fact that the terrorists are very remote from them, and an ocean away.
Interesting answer.
These people are smart/probably equipped with the newest gadgets in the World?
I presume they can fly almost anywhere. Probably have Visas from the US.
But probably not in their tens of thousands with weapons. Of course, if they did reach Washington... that would be a horrible shame.
Just think: they might even invade the Capitol!
HOPE.
So were a few others wrong. And a few who are often wrong got it right.
I wonder how many $$ were spent, as in Iraq, buying off the Syrian army? And what fresh hell will the Syrian people now get to live or flee? And where will the next round of escapees go?
It's the American way, no?
I don't think anyone has "won" in this sense. It's just yet another successful coup operation by the US and Israel (and NATO allies).
I saw an X post saying that Assad had made it to Moscow and was given asylum. Don't know if that's true or not, but it's a happier ending than being shot down.
Thing got wrong fast once Russia and Iran decided to abandon Syria. And you know they knew beforehand how this would turn out , and likely agreed in some ways.
I don’t have any idea what will happen, who is in control, what deals have been made; it is all speculation now.
At least you admit it, which gives you a lot of credibility, and I am just as surprised as you are. I didn't expect Assad's regime to collapse so quickly. Clearly, something was happening in Syria that we either didn't know at all or did not understand.
I just hope it doesn't turn into another Libya. I can tell you there are a lot of Christian Syrian expats living here in NE Ohio and they're scared to death for their kin in Syria.
Fakiri or Takfiri? Lovely writing, thanks Julian.
My bad. Takfiri. I corrected it. Thanks.
Such a discouraging update😞 Welcome Chappy🥰🤗💕
Putin traded Syria for Ukraine back room deal