Have Turkey and Israel won?

I was wrong

It seems my predictions for the conflict in Syria were wrong, wrong, wrong….! Sorry. So much for my vaunted, self-congratulatory record of accurate predictions. Makes me wonder what else I was wrong about!

HTS has entered Damascus and the Syrian Prime Minister is asking for an orderly handover of government and implicitly elections, saying he will support any government that has the support of the Syrian people.

“Our” side won and the people lost

Aaron Mate puts it nicely..

Looks like “our side in Syria” won. Let’s all hope it now doesn’t go like the last time we “won” in Iraq and Libya.

Professor Asad Abukhalil (California) writes:

I never have a good word to say about the Syrian regime (and never written or said a word of praise for the regime, since Hafidh Al-Asad days) but: how can we talk about Syria and not talk about Israeli-US plans for the region to destroy state and society in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Libya? No matter how ugly a regime is, US and Israel manage to replace it with something much worse. Look at Libya and Iraq. In Afghanistan, the US established a regime so repugnant that people preferred the Taliban.

Let us recall that the Taliban were a US creation replacing a social democratic government, whose main fault was wanting to give educations to women in the countryside. There’s a pattern here.

Now, we have HTS? Not exactly a very “progressive” group. What then for the Sufi-Marxist-Leninist Rojava Kurds? What then for Christians and Alawites and the Shi’a?

A fragmented country

Do we see Syria partitioned?

Possible ….

Turkey will maintain its presence.

Russia will keep its bases on the Mediterranean coast

If you look at the map, you will see a number of bases marked as “Russian”, which are actually Syrian Airforce bases, Hama for example. And Mezzah. Real Russian bases are in that green area protected by mountains.

The Israelis have already expanded territory from the Golan Heights.

In the east, one would expect the Iraqi Resistance to strike against American occupied territory. Who will control the grain and the oil in the East?

IF

There are a lot of “ifs” here.

This is just the first day . The first day of “what”?

Nobody knows.

For example, HTS taking Damascus could mean the end of the Baath ideology, which might then become an “insurgency” just as HTS was - or resurface under a different form, if actually democratic elections were allowed. An HTS/ Turkish administration in Damascus not necessarily mean the end of war.

A question arising now is why Russia allowed this to happen. I assume that the Russians lost confidence in Assad’s ability to control the agenda in Syria. If the government falls in Syria, it in no way affects Russia’s bases.

Syria’s sovereignty is compromised. But it was before anyway, with the Turks and the Americans supporting Takfiri extremists, the country effectively partitioned, a third under control of foreign interests.

Astana just reduced the level of violence.

Jolani rebranding himself as a “moderate” indicates a shift in the “narrative”. Jolani now proclaims himself a “moderate” and a “pragmatist” without committing himself to a democratic, inclusive government for “all” Syrians . It’s the “Zelensky Way”….

The Israelis of course claim that they just entered the conflict to stop Iran from supplying Hezbollah with weapons. But they never give up territory once taken.

A question then is how Iran can continue to supply weapons to Hezbollah. It will be a little more difficult - but they managed with the Yemenis. And look at the map!

Tartus is a Russian base. Now said to be protected by the Africa Corps, as well as the Russian Air Force. Notice how close it is to Lebanon. In the future, if the Russian-Iranian alliance strengthens, this might be a route for supply to Hezbollah. “Might” is the keyword.

All bets are now off in Syria. Unconfirmed reports at the time of writing say that Assad was killed in a plane crash. We don’t really know. Jolani was supposed to be dead too. If Assad did die in a plane crash, you can be about 80% sure it wasn’t an accident.

What next?

Having gotten things so wrong, I am loathe to make any more “predictions”.

Chappy’s New Home

Here is Chappy in his hammock. For now he is in a large cage. And this is the hammock he had at the shelter, which he loves. So far, he hasn’t eaten or drunk anything or used the toilet. Ichi ignored him when he arrived. Then last night, Ichi got spooked by his presence and is now hiding in the futon closet. This is pretty normal and might go on for a couple of days.

Many thanks for the support!

To help Chappy make a new life - and Ichi too - and me continue to get old, click here. (or on the photo)