The Rant
I finally get to say it: “I told ya’ so”!
Hopium? Copium? Trumpium?
Most of the Alt Media seems still convinced that Donald Trump is some kind of revolutionary -- shaking up the US "establishment" – purging the Deep State-- and reforming American foreign policy, making “deals” rather than war—that there is method in his apparent madness, and he will make things better for the common man. .
I and some others, such as Brian Berletic, have argued the opposite.
From my point of view at least , the Donald is not “shaking up the US establishment" – he IS the establishment! He is not "reforming" American foreign policy; rather, he is redirecting it while keeping the basic assumptions that have driven it for at least a century. Putting lipstick on a one of a long line of pigs —and screwing it.
From my Dissident Alt (D-Alt) point of view, Trump is erratic – reactive and reactionary – with vague and often contradictory goals-- that have little to do with the reality of the world today- and certainly that of you and I.
He is a creature of the system – just as Biden was and Obama were before him and Bush before then and Clinton and his predecessors. The American System is not competent; neither are its people. Ergo, there can be no change that will benefit you or I without changing the system.
Of course every president promises “change” —claiming to be a political Messiah, leading us to political Heaven —fixing things.
"Change you can believe in"??
No, "Change for Believers". That's who Heaven is for – Believers. And indeed if you drink the sacramental wine and believe, it will turn into blood-- the blood of innocents around the globe.
So, what got me going?
In previous posts, I did not think there would be any meeting of the minds between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin— if only because Putin has a very good mind and Trump doesn't have one at all!
Russia has military superiority in Europe, which it is demonstrating apace in its SMO in Ukraine, although it is not even conducting its operations there as a real war in the sense that the West understands war. It doesn't matter what kind of support European and the Americans provide for the Ukrainians – they have already lost.
But Putin is careful.
There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered. There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs. Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose.
The US is the like the rat. It should not be underestimated It is not predictable. And definitely should not be be cornered. Nor should the Ukraine.
Ukraine once had a population of about 51 million. Today, it is 32 million. But this statistic is misleading – since it includes Central, Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
Western Ukraine is just 18% of the total. In 2021 it was 19 million – and now it's considerably less. But like a rat. it can be dangerous.
Consider that the SMO is a civil war with Western Ukraine attempting to assert dominance over the entire region including eastern and southern Ukraine—to “Ukrainize” the entire region by extirpating Russian language, culture and religion, while taking control of resources.
Somehow the Banderites of Western Ukraine have managed to terrorize all of what was once known as “Little Russia” and is now being reborn as NovoRossiya .
Trump, unfortunately, does not understand these things or care. Nor does he understand Putin’s mentality.
Failings, which one supposes, are partly responsible for his latest political insanities, along with a bloated ego.
Trump’s new ideas
Suddenly, Trump and Zelly are making a “deal”. Which is?
a.) Trump wants to get control of Ukraine’s natural resources, turning them over for exploitation by American companies – a process already begun as I wrote elsewhere with Blackrock and other companies taking control of Ukrainian land in West and Central Ukraine. In this case, the focus is on resources such as rare earths and metals—which are necessary for American hi-tech industries, coincidentally Trump’s main constituency – what Varoufakis calls “techno-feudal” elites.
b.) Zelensky will sign over rights to Ukraine’s resources to the US and the US will give Ukraine $500 billion to prosecute the war. And, of course, support, like ISR and targeting data.
c.) The war will pay for itself in terms of future revenue for the US of A.
d.) Although not stated but obvious, this “deal” would ideally limit the effects of Chinese retaliation against tariffs by cutting off exports of rare earths and metals to the US, China being the world’s biggest exporter.
e.) The deal will force the Russians to offer a ceasefire and guarantee the integrity of the current Ukrainian state.
f.) an addition to the agreement, is that Zelensky signs over “logistics” – namely ports, which means the Black Sea ports under US authority—which will, of course, cause security issues for Russia.
In announcing this deal, Trump also bragged that he was the guy who supplied Javelin missiles to Ukraine in 2016 and helped them build their military for a planned attack on the DPR and LPR in 2022 that Putin pre-empted. So much for the Donald being the Peace Guy!
All in all, these are not proposals of a superpower desirous of world peace but of domination and control. National megalomania.
The logic of insanity
Trump’s new tack seems to some insane— but some will see method in the madness – a kind of logic. Certainly, there are all kinds of logics.
If you have ever visited a mental hospital you will notice that crazy people are very “logical” in justifying their illusions and delusions.
Rationality, however, is not the point. Real-world results are.
Prepared for the worst
As I mentioned in my last post, the Russians are winning – they were winning before when the US and its allies were supplying Zelensky with their latest weapons and technical assistance. They will continue doing so. But some things may change.
For example, now they have yet another vey good reason to target Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.
Once, Donbass has fallen, and there is progress in Sumy and Kharkov, you can expect the Russians to cut off supplies to Odessa and Black Sea ports, with shipping already heavily interdicted. They will , take back the rest of Kherson and Zaporozhye and put pressure on Odessa and Nikolaiv for the north and east and take advantage of growing partisan movement. Their eventual goal must be control of the Black Sea coast line from Crimea to Odessa and beyond.
Should the Europeans or Americans send military to the Black Sea, those forces will be targeted just as mercenaries and advisors in the region have been before.
As for Americans working in Ukraine to exploit resources, they will be in a war zone and subject to risk. Already, many Americans have died in the SMO. More might well be added to the list. It is unlikely therefore that the American companies will take the risk without military protection, which ironically would definitely put them in the line of fire.
The Russians may also be less forgiving of British and American ISR assets in the Black Sea area, declaring a no-fly zone—although I would expect that to be a last resort as a response to a more direct American provocation. The Russians will want the S500 system operational before that.
The Russians were clearly prepared for possible escalation from the Trump “team” and provocations.
You can be sure there will be no compromise. No ceasefire. “Peace” will come only with unconditional surrender and the demise of the Kiev Regime, and democratic referenda.
And if the US wants access to Russian or Ukrainian resources, it is going to have to pay to make it worth Russia’s while - under Russian conditions— without compromising Russia’s relationship with China or BRICS.
Apology
I have to apologize to rats. There are good rats and bad ones, It all depends on environment and upbringing.
Just like people.
Thanks from Chappy
Thanks to all those who responded, buying coffees for Chappy’s treatment at the vet.
The quote from Putin in this article actually comes from the Special Article on Putin. where I draw on his own words and those of ordinary people who know him or knew him rather than political figures or journalists. I have been a little delayed —writing articles on the events of the last few days— and trying to get to sleep before 4 AM!
One of my coffee buyers asked for the Special Article on Leadership in htm format, which I duly sent, I noticed it opens in Chrome nicely — and you can also translate it easily with Google Translate or the very good (new) Yandex Translate. Translation between Romance languages and German should be pretty accurate, I am not sure about Russian or Chinese and Japanese.
So I will add htm formats to the articles I send to coffee buyers,.
If you buy coffee and get on the mailing list, you can also ask for previous articles. “Htm” has a conveniently small foot print for direct emailing.
Click here to buy coffee, help with Chappy’s treatment and get on the mailing list.
I agree with your estimate of what Russia is planning to do.
1. Completing the Liberation of Donbass (Donetsk)
2. Securing the North-East Border of the Kiev-Regime and collapse the Kursk Cauldron.
3. Securing the ZNPP, crossing the Dnieper and attacking Zaporizhia from West and East (Donetsk).
4. Blocking Odessa and Nikolaiv from their North, cutting supply from Odessa to Lvov & Kiev and connecting with Transnistria in the West
Only a 'Surrender' could stop this.
When there is no 'surrender', priorities are then:
1. Black Sea Coast, possibly with Air- and Naval landings. Starting the Siege of Odessa.
Here are NATO/Mercenary interventions possible, IF Romania supports it (Airbases, Air defences).
2. Dnipro, Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev. The surrender takes place at the last Bunker with the last Ukraine Officer. The most western parts can be taken by their 'original owners'. What remains will get a temporary Russian governor, who will start elections and the making of a new constitution, that needs TWICE a 2/3 majority in the Parliament for a change, with a new election in between (as it is in The Netherlands). Forbidding Nazism, Banderites and propagating their heritage. NO NATO NOR Foreign Military. No Discrimination on Ethnicity or Mother language nor Church-choice.
Sander
Everyone go watch Jeffery Sach EU speech from 3days ago, it's the best speech I've ever heard for peace in my lifetime.. please watch and share...