I agree with your estimate of what Russia is planning to do.
1. Completing the Liberation of Donbass (Donetsk)
2. Securing the North-East Border of the Kiev-Regime and collapse the Kursk Cauldron.
3. Securing the ZNPP, crossing the Dnieper and attacking Zaporizhia from West and East (Donetsk).
4. Blocking Odessa and Nikolaiv from their North, cutting supply from Odessa to Lvov & Kiev and connecting with Transnistria in the West
Only a 'Surrender' could stop this.
When there is no 'surrender', priorities are then:
1. Black Sea Coast, possibly with Air- and Naval landings. Starting the Siege of Odessa.
Here are NATO/Mercenary interventions possible, IF Romania supports it (Airbases, Air defences).
2. Dnipro, Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev. The surrender takes place at the last Bunker with the last Ukraine Officer. The most western parts can be taken by their 'original owners'. What remains will get a temporary Russian governor, who will start elections and the making of a new constitution, that needs TWICE a 2/3 majority in the Parliament for a change, with a new election in between (as it is in The Netherlands). Forbidding Nazism, Banderites and propagating their heritage. NO NATO NOR Foreign Military. No Discrimination on Ethnicity or Mother language nor Church-choice.
You have written a lot about Odessa-- and events prove you very, very right -- Odessa is a key, just as the Crimea was. I really like 2. here. As for Romania -- Romania is a mess. There will be a revolution there I think. The EuroFascists have overplayed their hand.
3 'countries' have Geopolitical positions with possibly (or already factual) influence on the North-West corner of the Black Sea (Odessa): Moldova, Transnistria and Romania.
All 3 of them are being targetted by The Monster (which is NOT the US, which is currently a target too).
My first realisation came after Macron said that he had troops ready for Moldova. That is a long time ago. His slip of the tongue did spoil the secret NATO-plan, but the continuing destruction of the Kiev-Regime (and NATO-mercenaries) changed Poland's standpoint and made that plan obsolete, so after trying to use Transnistria (from Ukraine), which tuned out to be impossible too, Romania was the last straw. We will see how that turns out next weeks.
As a Canadian expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started and ultimately left Ukraine because it became dangerous to have an alternative view- I have followed this American proxy war against Russia- as closely as anyone.
#1. It is my view that Russia wanted to end this conflict as quickly as possible through negotiations. They have maintained their openness to negotiations, but I now think this is just for appearances.
#2. Russia has never and will never announce their intentions.
But I do not see how they can achieve their stated SMO goals, and their unstated goal- the largest possible distance between American missile installations & military bases in Europe, and Moscow- without taking full control of Ukraine.
Just because they take full control of Ukraine, does not mean they will retain control.
They have already hinted that Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Poland could reclaim territory that was assigned to Ukraine during soviet times.
To get maximum value and control this process, Russia needs to be in control of these territories.
#3. The "alt" commentariat has this idea it would be very difficult for Russia to manage & control western regions of Ukraine. Difficult compared to what?
Does Russia want a lawless, poverty-stricken territory on its border? Perfect place for the CIA.
#4. Russia can offer the citizens of Ukraine a far better future than they have in any other scenario. The cost of living in Ukraine has skyrocketed in the past 10 years as western influence in Ukraine became dominant. Cost of living in Russia is now much lower than in Ukraine. Russian cost of living brought to Ukraine would improve the lives of most Ukrainians. Russia has massive gas & petrol supplies at low cost- a futher benefit for Ukrainians.
There are a lot of natural synergies between Russia & Ukraine in agriculture, mining and energy production.
The Ukrainian energy grid is Soviet. All key components are built in Russia.
In cooperation with China, Russia can rebuild & modernize Ukraine quickly. There will be massive economic development & opportunities in Ukraine- for Ukrainians.
#5. With control of Ukraine- absorbing it into the Russian Federation- Russia can build pipelines, railway lines, highways and electricity transportation lines across Ukraine to its border with Europe- retaining total control right to the border crossings.
It is inevitable that European countries will be on their knees in the Kremlin, begging.
#6. Many "alt" & western "expert's" talk about Russia taking up to the Dneiper, controlling all land east of the Dneiper. This is just dumb, lazy "thinking". Kiev, Dnipro & Zaporizhia- all major cities- straddle the Dneiper. The Dneiper has multiple hydro electric generating stations- all now damaged by missile strikes. The Dneiper was a major transit route. If you don't control both banks, the river becomes valueless.
Dnipro & Zaporizhia have massive steel & aluminum production facilities. In Zaporizhia in particular there is a massive hydro electric generating station built specifically to power the aluminum production facilities in Zaporizhia.
Russia has to control both sides of the Dneiper to secure use of the river.
#7. Leaving any rump state of Ukraine is just inviting further western meddling. Better for Russia to have a border with stable states like Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Poland, even if some of them are currently unfriendly. If any problems emanate from there, they risk conflict on their own territory. This provides plenty of incentive for them to not act aggressively towards Russia.
I could provide many more examples of benefits for both Russia and for Ukrainian citizens- if/when Russia takes control over all of Ukraine.
But I believe the most common misunderstanding among the western commentariat is that Ukrainian people will cause the Russians ongoing problems.
My view having lived in Ukraine is that there was no cohesion in Ukrainian society. Ukraine was grossly corrupt, largely controlled by a few oligarchs, each operating as a mafia family.
80% of Ukraine was controlled by 10 to 20 families. Every single mayor, councillor, politician and government official in every department, was employed/controlled by one of these families. Every radio & TV station, every newspaper was controlled by 1 of these families.
Russia taking over Ukraine, wiping out all of this, and starting fresh with Russians in charge- would be a massive improvement & blessing for the people of Ukraine.
For anyone watching this American proxy war closely and objectively- it has been clear Russia is trying to avoid harming Ukrainian civilians.
It is my belief that Putin/Russia is going to rescue their western occupied & brainwashed brothers & sisters.
Of course Russia can and will never say this, but I do believe Russia will occupy all of Ukraine by the time this ends.
It fills a number of gaps in my knowledge, especially about the mood of the people and their likely futures. It also confirms some of my estimates.
If what you write about the future, after the war, is more or less true (parts around Lviv gone to Poland, Hungary and Romania) i think those who supported the regime will have fled from east and south to those area's. They will escape the tribunal.
What do you think about those who fled to Poland and other parts of Europe, will they return when they see the Russians and Ukrainians who stayed, repairing and rebuilding the country, that then has less corruption and billionaire-gangs ? I assume many of those who fled to Russia (some millions too) will return too.
It will take some decennia before the population starts growing again on its own.
And it will take at least 3 generations until the worst of the memories and scars have evaporated or healed.
I have resisted the proxy war from the beginning (2014). I fly a Russian Victory flag at my house next to a Palestinian one. Many call me traitor, but i don't mind.
Sander
PS. I am afraid, that if nobody can 'remove' Zelensky from power or otherwise break the link with the London Deep State, the war will end at the last bunker by the surrender of the last Officer. But the non-Russian territory can then be rebuilt too, with a temporary 'Governor' until after elections and a new constitution is operational.
I believe if Russia takes control over all of Ukraine, many of those that fled will return.
I think some big drivers of this will be-
#1. The ending of benefits in Europe
#2. Many of the Ukrainians have worn out their welcome in Europe and are facing increasing hostility.
#3. At some point a very severe economic crisis is going to hit Europe & the UK. This is going to cause a lot of tension. As unemployment and cost of living rise, and quality of life in Europe goes down- more reasons to go home.
The combination of Russia improving the quality of life in the new Russian territories and increasingly bad situation in Europe- will cause many to return.
At this point, with American intentions to occupy Ukraine(if they sign the "agreement"), I can't see Russia allowing any of Ukraine to remain.
Before the war started in 2022, Russia made a formal request to discuss American withdrawl from central Europe.
Given this is really the only thing that could stop Russia advancing west, I find it really hard to believe Russia is going to allow American corporations, protected by America- will be allowed to occupy part of Ukraine.
It is impossible to know what Russia plans to do or will do. They do not give any hints and they have rock solid information control at the levels where such decisions are made.
After all the betrayal and aggression from America and all the success Russia is having with China & BRICS- I just can't see much cooperation with America.
For what purpose?
Russia does not need anything from America.
I guess only time will tell.
I only know I will not return to Ukraine ever again.
When a competent reformative leader has to make decisions to correct a big mess he has to rely on a moral compass and pragmatic tools. Using a scale of one to ten Donny's moral compass is zero and his pragmatic tools which are centered around financial income and cost cutting is ten. So Donny is like a myopic sailer with no compass in a stormy sea, who can rig the sails but his ship is damaged. That's why he's just fluttering around. And the sharks circling him who bit a chunk out of his ass the last time are reassessing a new strategy to get another bite, they have to reassess cause Donny's mad at them. But those sharks are as smart as killer whales, they'll figure something out. Anyway, if you can't tell right from wrong, you have nowhere going in the long haul and the Sophist will get you everytime.
Thank you Jack I love the metaphor . You point to an important point that we (I) normally miss -- "moral compass". Without it, nations become psychopathic.
If the Trumpster believes for 1 second he can outsmart oververtly or covertly antagonise & come out on top. Him & his advisors are in for a big awakening. The Russians only held off on becoming a whole lot more aggressive. In the hope there'd be some sort of common sense shown. Under a new administration. If they feel they've been lead up the Garden path once again. I hate to say it, but if anyone believes the Russian forces have been fighting a war against Ukraine. They're so mistaken & delusional, they will get a huge wake up call. I'm pretty certain the Americans will have the satellite images of the Russian forces build up in the far West of Russia. If they do have, they'll know Russia is fully prepared to confront NATO. The amount of heavy weaponry, the newly formed brigades have been training & getting real experience for the past 18months. Russia has a front line force of a million men right now. They've got over half a million all trained up & prepared to provide logistics & all the support necessary to fight a real war. If it comes down to real war. You can guarantee Russia will gain another half a million bodies instantly. The country is fully behind their country & their leader. Their military men & women are national heroes. This the Russian mentality, something all of the Western talking heads fail to comprehend. As a Westerner myself who doesn't read or watch Western media anymore. I've always taken an interest in all things on the geopolitical front. Russia has been my main focus for more than a decade. But I'm still no expert on the Russian way of life. I do know one thing though, that big old military wheel has started turning once again. God help us all if it starts running away with itself.
Thank goodness it seems like both the Chinese and Russians aren't into wholesale destruction of anyone who has a different opinion.
The SMO has been very modulated, more of a hard bargaining tool after the Minsk agreements.
The Western powers have had their perception changed, one hopes.
The problem is that the USA always gets away unscathed, whereas the ME, Ukraine and Europe (economically +refugees from ME wars) are bearing the brunt of misguided US/NATO ideology.
It would be more pragmatic for Russia to strike the USA, than their own backyard which is Europe, and that would be the end - which wouldn't help either.
I don't see the US changing their tactics, and Russia and China will just need more military deterence to protect their borders, and be taken seriously when negotiating.
Russia's military buildup is rarely remarked on . I suppose that's because of the Official Doctrine which is a.) Russia has suffered bigly on the battlefield b.) the Russian economies starving for Big Macs. How can you fight a way without Big Macs? Having worked in a zoo, I have seen a lot of different animals Putin is write about not cornering animals. A cornered animals, even a small one, can be dangerous. So, if you want to handle them you use strategy. Nets, bait, with large animals, tranq guns Raccoons? The turn inside their skin but if you grab them by the tail, they are helpless (not it doesn't hurt them). Each animal is different. With feral animals outside that may be rabid -- use a weapon. Don't mess with skunks.
I concur about Russia having really beefed up their military. They have been working on it since 2007. The last 3 years has truly modernized and streamlined it.
However, it is not for offensive purposes, but rather as a deterrent.
Same with China.
Bottom line - they don't trust the USA. And why should they, they are always labeled as adversaries.
I don't think Trump's threats of escalation surprise Putin. After all, Trump wrote in his book that he uses that tactic often. It's a tactic that has become a bad habit, in my opinion, but Trump is too old to change.
Anyway, I won't be be surprised if all this hot air disappears in a couple years after Russia has collapsed the Kiev regime, Trump has removed sanctions, and Trump & Putin celebrate a new beginning.
In Putin's interview with Carlson, he said he preferred Biden because he was "predictable", meaning that there was a certain underlying logic to Biden's actions., whereas there is none to Trump's -- he's erratic. Biden's handlers at least were consistent. Morally vacuous but consistent. Trump is morally vacuous but inconsistent.
"It is clear now that the Trump blitzkrieg across the American Administrative State could not have been mounted unless carefully pre-planned and prepared over the last four years.
Trump’s flurry of Presidential Executive Orders at the outset of his Presidency were not whimsical. Leading U.S. constitutional lawyer, Johnathan Turley, and other lawyers say that the Orders were well drafted legally and with the clear understanding that legal challenges would ensue. What’s more, that Trump Team welcome those challenges." - read the whole thing.
It's been what......5 weeks? No miracles yet? Go have a beer and relax.....or better yet....a good cigar!
It will be interesting to see how the situation in Ukraine is resolved. The Russians have always been open to negotiations. I find the US/EU/UK/Ukraine chaos quite amusing - it doesn't seem as if they were prepared for this kind of end. Losing. It's almost as if they believed their own lies.
Trump is just another useless American president. Nothing new.
There’s huge YES to that!!! He has zippo foreign policy negotiation skills and will not allow any minions below him to develop any “real” negotiation in Ukraine. Interesting to see what conditions mineral seekers encounter when they actually hit ground. If Trump authorizes US troops as protection, he’s walking into a rabbit hole. His outcomes based on closing deals , using tariffs as weapons at the world, and his campaign promises have morphed into same old same old, lies to get out of other lied. Etc,, etc.
Trump apparently wants to be known as "the Great Negotiator" recalled Reagan;s, "Great Communicator" thing. Reagan wasn't a real communicator -- but he was good at selling the American public dumb ideas. Trump? LOL>
Putin inevitably will continue his military campaign to capture and hold as much of Ukraine as necessary, hopefully the West will have to concede (by Western standards) and Ukraine will return to quasi military/civilian form of governing..
After watching and waiting over the last 3 months i have refrained from commenting on the Trump Revolution as his followers in the media call it. i have suspended all judgement until i saw the skitt played out by the 3 amigos yesterday.So after watching the theatre at the White house yesterday i have one question to ask. WHO NEEDS A CEASEFIRE?
First let's look at Ukraine. They have never made a decision or had a vote on anything that occurs in their country since 2015.
Ms. Nuland or the hebrew hog as many at central inteligence call her spent 10-30 billion $ in stting up the coup. Even before then in 2008 the Orange revolution came with at least a 50 billion price tag.
Yeveren Karas head of c-14 and his merry bunch of gangsters were paid and equiped by the Obama admin so that 50 Jewish families could acquire 80% of all the wealth in Ukraine at pennies on the dollar.
As I watched the actor Zelinsky playing his part in this reality game show it struck me how absurd the dialogue was. The United States was telling the world that they were the victim because this piano playing actor in his green uniform (that he has worn for the last 3 years) didn't say Thank You. He was so ungrateful for the opportunity to have his country and population destroyed. The number of 350 billion continues to be repeated over and over and over by the Trumpturd as he sells this lie to the poor American taxpayer. The real number that has accumulated since 2004 when this fiasco was hatched is at least 3.5 TRILLION $. and growing. if the taxpayer opened his eyes he would shudder
It has now snowballed to the point where the United states has exhaused almost everything they have in military equipment. Trump is now a force for peace as is his vp from Peter Thiel .
,Really? So we know that Ukraine doesn't want a ceasefire since they don't have a say one way or another.
Next we have Russia As Trump keeps going on about a ceasefire and the russians from Lavrov, Medvedev, to Peskov keep saying no. It is apparent to everyone that the Russians are looking for a permanent security arrangement. The only reason that Putin hasn't said NYET to Trump is that he is to polite
the Russians are not looking for a ceasefire.
We are now left with the United States of America.They definitely want and need a ceasefire.This plan to carve up Russia steal all the resources so the derivative bets can be paid by the bankers who owe each other hunreds of trillions of dollars has totally backfired. From Oboma to Binden to Trump . they all carried the torch.
The American equipment is inferior and doesnt work on the battlefield. Artilery shells that the Russians turn out out 500$ cost you 8000$ The empire is dying. Nothing can be done to save it.The
Republic maybe saved but you'll need inteligent ,couragous men and woman,
Your analysis of Trump’s expectations of the deal is spot on.
At first I didn’t think he was serious, but the more pressure he put on Zelensky the more I realized that’s what he was planning.
It is a very bad plan because unknowingly instead of walking away and branding it as Biden’s war now he risks being drawn into it. What surprises me is there is NO ONE who can look three or four steps afterwards. It is really baffling. The only explanation I have is he doesn’t understand Russia or he overestimates his ability or America’s might and influence.
I hope someone pulls him back before it’s too late.
I think Trump is a globalist, groomed from birth, Jesuit educated, Mafia connected and a raving Zionist. He obeys his masters and does not think for himself, that was trained out of him decades ago. So who are his masters, you may well ask.... Black Nobility is my suggestion.
Agreed... And there are a couple of possible random factors for the US/NATO on the south / south-eastern flanks of country-404, in that Romanian people could rebel en masse and overthrow their govt, to be replaced by a governing 'popular movement' soon - the pace of developments there is accelerating, boosted by today's arrest etc of Georgescu... They could ditch the massive US/NATO base on their territory, swallow Moldova which it claims as rightfully part of Romania, ceding Transnistria to Russia... Roman/ian candles!!! And there are rumblings in Bulgaria, reviving ambitions to expand by incorporating old Bulgarian Black Sea coastal territory... Such could somewhat reduce the silly smiles on MAGA faces!?
So we got a flash of Mad Hatter ~ But no sign of The Cheshire Cat?!
I find the mainstream Alt Media disappointing in its analyses -- the two Alexes, Larry J.--and others. These are smart people. Smarter than me, anyway. Berletic is an exception as is B. t MoA,
Our overlords want the rights to resources wherever those may lie. We without rights pay our bettors to act against our interests in the furtherance of theirs. If the resource grab of the day is successful, our bettors reap the rewards and we pay for the means. If the grab is unsuccessful, again we pay for the means, and our bettors still profit.
Trump is the ideal facilitator for the mechanism described above.
I am dreading what lies at the end of the trail of destruction he is wreaking on our civil service. I do not see privatized weather service for one working too well for us. We will become the Balkans of thought and research.
The thrust of "DOGE" is a corporate dodge -- to privatize the public sector -- which has not grown for years and is undermanned, underfunded and understaffed (except for defense. " I do not see privatized weather service for one working too well for us. We will become the Balkans of thought and research."
I agree with your estimate of what Russia is planning to do.
1. Completing the Liberation of Donbass (Donetsk)
2. Securing the North-East Border of the Kiev-Regime and collapse the Kursk Cauldron.
3. Securing the ZNPP, crossing the Dnieper and attacking Zaporizhia from West and East (Donetsk).
4. Blocking Odessa and Nikolaiv from their North, cutting supply from Odessa to Lvov & Kiev and connecting with Transnistria in the West
Only a 'Surrender' could stop this.
When there is no 'surrender', priorities are then:
1. Black Sea Coast, possibly with Air- and Naval landings. Starting the Siege of Odessa.
Here are NATO/Mercenary interventions possible, IF Romania supports it (Airbases, Air defences).
2. Dnipro, Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev. The surrender takes place at the last Bunker with the last Ukraine Officer. The most western parts can be taken by their 'original owners'. What remains will get a temporary Russian governor, who will start elections and the making of a new constitution, that needs TWICE a 2/3 majority in the Parliament for a change, with a new election in between (as it is in The Netherlands). Forbidding Nazism, Banderites and propagating their heritage. NO NATO NOR Foreign Military. No Discrimination on Ethnicity or Mother language nor Church-choice.
Sander
You have written a lot about Odessa-- and events prove you very, very right -- Odessa is a key, just as the Crimea was. I really like 2. here. As for Romania -- Romania is a mess. There will be a revolution there I think. The EuroFascists have overplayed their hand.
Thank you...
3 'countries' have Geopolitical positions with possibly (or already factual) influence on the North-West corner of the Black Sea (Odessa): Moldova, Transnistria and Romania.
All 3 of them are being targetted by The Monster (which is NOT the US, which is currently a target too).
My first realisation came after Macron said that he had troops ready for Moldova. That is a long time ago. His slip of the tongue did spoil the secret NATO-plan, but the continuing destruction of the Kiev-Regime (and NATO-mercenaries) changed Poland's standpoint and made that plan obsolete, so after trying to use Transnistria (from Ukraine), which tuned out to be impossible too, Romania was the last straw. We will see how that turns out next weeks.
Sander.
As a Canadian expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started and ultimately left Ukraine because it became dangerous to have an alternative view- I have followed this American proxy war against Russia- as closely as anyone.
#1. It is my view that Russia wanted to end this conflict as quickly as possible through negotiations. They have maintained their openness to negotiations, but I now think this is just for appearances.
#2. Russia has never and will never announce their intentions.
But I do not see how they can achieve their stated SMO goals, and their unstated goal- the largest possible distance between American missile installations & military bases in Europe, and Moscow- without taking full control of Ukraine.
Just because they take full control of Ukraine, does not mean they will retain control.
They have already hinted that Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Poland could reclaim territory that was assigned to Ukraine during soviet times.
To get maximum value and control this process, Russia needs to be in control of these territories.
#3. The "alt" commentariat has this idea it would be very difficult for Russia to manage & control western regions of Ukraine. Difficult compared to what?
Does Russia want a lawless, poverty-stricken territory on its border? Perfect place for the CIA.
#4. Russia can offer the citizens of Ukraine a far better future than they have in any other scenario. The cost of living in Ukraine has skyrocketed in the past 10 years as western influence in Ukraine became dominant. Cost of living in Russia is now much lower than in Ukraine. Russian cost of living brought to Ukraine would improve the lives of most Ukrainians. Russia has massive gas & petrol supplies at low cost- a futher benefit for Ukrainians.
There are a lot of natural synergies between Russia & Ukraine in agriculture, mining and energy production.
The Ukrainian energy grid is Soviet. All key components are built in Russia.
In cooperation with China, Russia can rebuild & modernize Ukraine quickly. There will be massive economic development & opportunities in Ukraine- for Ukrainians.
#5. With control of Ukraine- absorbing it into the Russian Federation- Russia can build pipelines, railway lines, highways and electricity transportation lines across Ukraine to its border with Europe- retaining total control right to the border crossings.
It is inevitable that European countries will be on their knees in the Kremlin, begging.
#6. Many "alt" & western "expert's" talk about Russia taking up to the Dneiper, controlling all land east of the Dneiper. This is just dumb, lazy "thinking". Kiev, Dnipro & Zaporizhia- all major cities- straddle the Dneiper. The Dneiper has multiple hydro electric generating stations- all now damaged by missile strikes. The Dneiper was a major transit route. If you don't control both banks, the river becomes valueless.
Dnipro & Zaporizhia have massive steel & aluminum production facilities. In Zaporizhia in particular there is a massive hydro electric generating station built specifically to power the aluminum production facilities in Zaporizhia.
Russia has to control both sides of the Dneiper to secure use of the river.
#7. Leaving any rump state of Ukraine is just inviting further western meddling. Better for Russia to have a border with stable states like Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Poland, even if some of them are currently unfriendly. If any problems emanate from there, they risk conflict on their own territory. This provides plenty of incentive for them to not act aggressively towards Russia.
I could provide many more examples of benefits for both Russia and for Ukrainian citizens- if/when Russia takes control over all of Ukraine.
But I believe the most common misunderstanding among the western commentariat is that Ukrainian people will cause the Russians ongoing problems.
My view having lived in Ukraine is that there was no cohesion in Ukrainian society. Ukraine was grossly corrupt, largely controlled by a few oligarchs, each operating as a mafia family.
80% of Ukraine was controlled by 10 to 20 families. Every single mayor, councillor, politician and government official in every department, was employed/controlled by one of these families. Every radio & TV station, every newspaper was controlled by 1 of these families.
Russia taking over Ukraine, wiping out all of this, and starting fresh with Russians in charge- would be a massive improvement & blessing for the people of Ukraine.
For anyone watching this American proxy war closely and objectively- it has been clear Russia is trying to avoid harming Ukrainian civilians.
It is my belief that Putin/Russia is going to rescue their western occupied & brainwashed brothers & sisters.
Of course Russia can and will never say this, but I do believe Russia will occupy all of Ukraine by the time this ends.
Thank you for this extended report/analysis.
It fills a number of gaps in my knowledge, especially about the mood of the people and their likely futures. It also confirms some of my estimates.
If what you write about the future, after the war, is more or less true (parts around Lviv gone to Poland, Hungary and Romania) i think those who supported the regime will have fled from east and south to those area's. They will escape the tribunal.
What do you think about those who fled to Poland and other parts of Europe, will they return when they see the Russians and Ukrainians who stayed, repairing and rebuilding the country, that then has less corruption and billionaire-gangs ? I assume many of those who fled to Russia (some millions too) will return too.
It will take some decennia before the population starts growing again on its own.
And it will take at least 3 generations until the worst of the memories and scars have evaporated or healed.
I have resisted the proxy war from the beginning (2014). I fly a Russian Victory flag at my house next to a Palestinian one. Many call me traitor, but i don't mind.
Sander
PS. I am afraid, that if nobody can 'remove' Zelensky from power or otherwise break the link with the London Deep State, the war will end at the last bunker by the surrender of the last Officer. But the non-Russian territory can then be rebuilt too, with a temporary 'Governor' until after elections and a new constitution is operational.
I believe if Russia takes control over all of Ukraine, many of those that fled will return.
I think some big drivers of this will be-
#1. The ending of benefits in Europe
#2. Many of the Ukrainians have worn out their welcome in Europe and are facing increasing hostility.
#3. At some point a very severe economic crisis is going to hit Europe & the UK. This is going to cause a lot of tension. As unemployment and cost of living rise, and quality of life in Europe goes down- more reasons to go home.
The combination of Russia improving the quality of life in the new Russian territories and increasingly bad situation in Europe- will cause many to return.
At this point, with American intentions to occupy Ukraine(if they sign the "agreement"), I can't see Russia allowing any of Ukraine to remain.
Before the war started in 2022, Russia made a formal request to discuss American withdrawl from central Europe.
Given this is really the only thing that could stop Russia advancing west, I find it really hard to believe Russia is going to allow American corporations, protected by America- will be allowed to occupy part of Ukraine.
It is impossible to know what Russia plans to do or will do. They do not give any hints and they have rock solid information control at the levels where such decisions are made.
After all the betrayal and aggression from America and all the success Russia is having with China & BRICS- I just can't see much cooperation with America.
For what purpose?
Russia does not need anything from America.
I guess only time will tell.
I only know I will not return to Ukraine ever again.
I will return if Russia is in control.
Everyone go watch Jeffery Sach EU speech from 3days ago, it's the best speech I've ever heard for peace in my lifetime.. please watch and share...
Saw this. Yeah--
"the best speech I've ever heard for peace in my lifetime"
When a competent reformative leader has to make decisions to correct a big mess he has to rely on a moral compass and pragmatic tools. Using a scale of one to ten Donny's moral compass is zero and his pragmatic tools which are centered around financial income and cost cutting is ten. So Donny is like a myopic sailer with no compass in a stormy sea, who can rig the sails but his ship is damaged. That's why he's just fluttering around. And the sharks circling him who bit a chunk out of his ass the last time are reassessing a new strategy to get another bite, they have to reassess cause Donny's mad at them. But those sharks are as smart as killer whales, they'll figure something out. Anyway, if you can't tell right from wrong, you have nowhere going in the long haul and the Sophist will get you everytime.
Thank you Jack I love the metaphor . You point to an important point that we (I) normally miss -- "moral compass". Without it, nations become psychopathic.
If the Trumpster believes for 1 second he can outsmart oververtly or covertly antagonise & come out on top. Him & his advisors are in for a big awakening. The Russians only held off on becoming a whole lot more aggressive. In the hope there'd be some sort of common sense shown. Under a new administration. If they feel they've been lead up the Garden path once again. I hate to say it, but if anyone believes the Russian forces have been fighting a war against Ukraine. They're so mistaken & delusional, they will get a huge wake up call. I'm pretty certain the Americans will have the satellite images of the Russian forces build up in the far West of Russia. If they do have, they'll know Russia is fully prepared to confront NATO. The amount of heavy weaponry, the newly formed brigades have been training & getting real experience for the past 18months. Russia has a front line force of a million men right now. They've got over half a million all trained up & prepared to provide logistics & all the support necessary to fight a real war. If it comes down to real war. You can guarantee Russia will gain another half a million bodies instantly. The country is fully behind their country & their leader. Their military men & women are national heroes. This the Russian mentality, something all of the Western talking heads fail to comprehend. As a Westerner myself who doesn't read or watch Western media anymore. I've always taken an interest in all things on the geopolitical front. Russia has been my main focus for more than a decade. But I'm still no expert on the Russian way of life. I do know one thing though, that big old military wheel has started turning once again. God help us all if it starts running away with itself.
Thank goodness it seems like both the Chinese and Russians aren't into wholesale destruction of anyone who has a different opinion.
The SMO has been very modulated, more of a hard bargaining tool after the Minsk agreements.
The Western powers have had their perception changed, one hopes.
The problem is that the USA always gets away unscathed, whereas the ME, Ukraine and Europe (economically +refugees from ME wars) are bearing the brunt of misguided US/NATO ideology.
It would be more pragmatic for Russia to strike the USA, than their own backyard which is Europe, and that would be the end - which wouldn't help either.
I don't see the US changing their tactics, and Russia and China will just need more military deterence to protect their borders, and be taken seriously when negotiating.
Russia's military buildup is rarely remarked on . I suppose that's because of the Official Doctrine which is a.) Russia has suffered bigly on the battlefield b.) the Russian economies starving for Big Macs. How can you fight a way without Big Macs? Having worked in a zoo, I have seen a lot of different animals Putin is write about not cornering animals. A cornered animals, even a small one, can be dangerous. So, if you want to handle them you use strategy. Nets, bait, with large animals, tranq guns Raccoons? The turn inside their skin but if you grab them by the tail, they are helpless (not it doesn't hurt them). Each animal is different. With feral animals outside that may be rabid -- use a weapon. Don't mess with skunks.
I concur about Russia having really beefed up their military. They have been working on it since 2007. The last 3 years has truly modernized and streamlined it.
However, it is not for offensive purposes, but rather as a deterrent.
Same with China.
Bottom line - they don't trust the USA. And why should they, they are always labeled as adversaries.
I don't think Trump's threats of escalation surprise Putin. After all, Trump wrote in his book that he uses that tactic often. It's a tactic that has become a bad habit, in my opinion, but Trump is too old to change.
Anyway, I won't be be surprised if all this hot air disappears in a couple years after Russia has collapsed the Kiev regime, Trump has removed sanctions, and Trump & Putin celebrate a new beginning.
In Putin's interview with Carlson, he said he preferred Biden because he was "predictable", meaning that there was a certain underlying logic to Biden's actions., whereas there is none to Trump's -- he's erratic. Biden's handlers at least were consistent. Morally vacuous but consistent. Trump is morally vacuous but inconsistent.
Folks, what say we stop hyperventilating and get some perspective eh?
Ukraine is a sideshow when looking at the whole enchilada, which is here - https://www.lewrockwell.com/2025/02/no_author/america-as-republic-not-as-empire-europes-sound-and-fury-after-jaw-dropping-pivots-in-u-s-policy/
"It is clear now that the Trump blitzkrieg across the American Administrative State could not have been mounted unless carefully pre-planned and prepared over the last four years.
Trump’s flurry of Presidential Executive Orders at the outset of his Presidency were not whimsical. Leading U.S. constitutional lawyer, Johnathan Turley, and other lawyers say that the Orders were well drafted legally and with the clear understanding that legal challenges would ensue. What’s more, that Trump Team welcome those challenges." - read the whole thing.
It's been what......5 weeks? No miracles yet? Go have a beer and relax.....or better yet....a good cigar!
Hmmm! The no war prez is now the war prez!!
https://youtu.be/pZu3Zoh1VvU?si=6aVxixmeWM6siv58
It will be interesting to see how the situation in Ukraine is resolved. The Russians have always been open to negotiations. I find the US/EU/UK/Ukraine chaos quite amusing - it doesn't seem as if they were prepared for this kind of end. Losing. It's almost as if they believed their own lies.
Trump is just another useless American president. Nothing new.
There’s huge YES to that!!! He has zippo foreign policy negotiation skills and will not allow any minions below him to develop any “real” negotiation in Ukraine. Interesting to see what conditions mineral seekers encounter when they actually hit ground. If Trump authorizes US troops as protection, he’s walking into a rabbit hole. His outcomes based on closing deals , using tariffs as weapons at the world, and his campaign promises have morphed into same old same old, lies to get out of other lied. Etc,, etc.
Trump apparently wants to be known as "the Great Negotiator" recalled Reagan;s, "Great Communicator" thing. Reagan wasn't a real communicator -- but he was good at selling the American public dumb ideas. Trump? LOL>
Putin inevitably will continue his military campaign to capture and hold as much of Ukraine as necessary, hopefully the West will have to concede (by Western standards) and Ukraine will return to quasi military/civilian form of governing..
After watching and waiting over the last 3 months i have refrained from commenting on the Trump Revolution as his followers in the media call it. i have suspended all judgement until i saw the skitt played out by the 3 amigos yesterday.So after watching the theatre at the White house yesterday i have one question to ask. WHO NEEDS A CEASEFIRE?
First let's look at Ukraine. They have never made a decision or had a vote on anything that occurs in their country since 2015.
Ms. Nuland or the hebrew hog as many at central inteligence call her spent 10-30 billion $ in stting up the coup. Even before then in 2008 the Orange revolution came with at least a 50 billion price tag.
Yeveren Karas head of c-14 and his merry bunch of gangsters were paid and equiped by the Obama admin so that 50 Jewish families could acquire 80% of all the wealth in Ukraine at pennies on the dollar.
As I watched the actor Zelinsky playing his part in this reality game show it struck me how absurd the dialogue was. The United States was telling the world that they were the victim because this piano playing actor in his green uniform (that he has worn for the last 3 years) didn't say Thank You. He was so ungrateful for the opportunity to have his country and population destroyed. The number of 350 billion continues to be repeated over and over and over by the Trumpturd as he sells this lie to the poor American taxpayer. The real number that has accumulated since 2004 when this fiasco was hatched is at least 3.5 TRILLION $. and growing. if the taxpayer opened his eyes he would shudder
It has now snowballed to the point where the United states has exhaused almost everything they have in military equipment. Trump is now a force for peace as is his vp from Peter Thiel .
,Really? So we know that Ukraine doesn't want a ceasefire since they don't have a say one way or another.
Next we have Russia As Trump keeps going on about a ceasefire and the russians from Lavrov, Medvedev, to Peskov keep saying no. It is apparent to everyone that the Russians are looking for a permanent security arrangement. The only reason that Putin hasn't said NYET to Trump is that he is to polite
the Russians are not looking for a ceasefire.
We are now left with the United States of America.They definitely want and need a ceasefire.This plan to carve up Russia steal all the resources so the derivative bets can be paid by the bankers who owe each other hunreds of trillions of dollars has totally backfired. From Oboma to Binden to Trump . they all carried the torch.
The American equipment is inferior and doesnt work on the battlefield. Artilery shells that the Russians turn out out 500$ cost you 8000$ The empire is dying. Nothing can be done to save it.The
Republic maybe saved but you'll need inteligent ,couragous men and woman,
Not a Trumpturd.
Your analysis of Trump’s expectations of the deal is spot on.
At first I didn’t think he was serious, but the more pressure he put on Zelensky the more I realized that’s what he was planning.
It is a very bad plan because unknowingly instead of walking away and branding it as Biden’s war now he risks being drawn into it. What surprises me is there is NO ONE who can look three or four steps afterwards. It is really baffling. The only explanation I have is he doesn’t understand Russia or he overestimates his ability or America’s might and influence.
I hope someone pulls him back before it’s too late.
I have another D-Alt opinion to run by you.
I think Trump is a globalist, groomed from birth, Jesuit educated, Mafia connected and a raving Zionist. He obeys his masters and does not think for himself, that was trained out of him decades ago. So who are his masters, you may well ask.... Black Nobility is my suggestion.
https://francesleader.substack.com/p/black-nobility-101
What is their long term plan? Ugly. Uglier than you think!
https://francesleader.substack.com/p/the-mother-of-all-false-flag-events
Agreed... And there are a couple of possible random factors for the US/NATO on the south / south-eastern flanks of country-404, in that Romanian people could rebel en masse and overthrow their govt, to be replaced by a governing 'popular movement' soon - the pace of developments there is accelerating, boosted by today's arrest etc of Georgescu... They could ditch the massive US/NATO base on their territory, swallow Moldova which it claims as rightfully part of Romania, ceding Transnistria to Russia... Roman/ian candles!!! And there are rumblings in Bulgaria, reviving ambitions to expand by incorporating old Bulgarian Black Sea coastal territory... Such could somewhat reduce the silly smiles on MAGA faces!?
So we got a flash of Mad Hatter ~ But no sign of The Cheshire Cat?!
the Cheshire Cat？Putin?
⌣
'Most of the Alt Media seems still convinced that Donald Trump is some kind of revolutionary...'
Being too emotional and stubbornly in denial about one's opinions towards such powerful leaders is dangerous.
I find the mainstream Alt Media disappointing in its analyses -- the two Alexes, Larry J.--and others. These are smart people. Smarter than me, anyway. Berletic is an exception as is B. t MoA,
Our overlords want the rights to resources wherever those may lie. We without rights pay our bettors to act against our interests in the furtherance of theirs. If the resource grab of the day is successful, our bettors reap the rewards and we pay for the means. If the grab is unsuccessful, again we pay for the means, and our bettors still profit.
Trump is the ideal facilitator for the mechanism described above.
I am dreading what lies at the end of the trail of destruction he is wreaking on our civil service. I do not see privatized weather service for one working too well for us. We will become the Balkans of thought and research.
The thrust of "DOGE" is a corporate dodge -- to privatize the public sector -- which has not grown for years and is undermanned, underfunded and understaffed (except for defense. " I do not see privatized weather service for one working too well for us. We will become the Balkans of thought and research."
Look up the Doge on Wikipedia.... the title is a massive clue to who rules the world from behind the veil. I wrote about this last year. https://francesleader.substack.com/p/doge-coin-has-some-interesting-history
Rapist and Racist and Epstein's Got His Tapes in Chief Trump's dead man walking.
https://open.substack.com/pub/paulokirk/p/iq-110-the-trump-musk-dodge-err-doge?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5i319
Giulian, the last video you posted is a fake, it is a soft air combat. This is the real link: https://www.instagram.com/brownie.cakessss/reel/DFGkF8py18H/ . If it's any consolation, Andrei Martyanov also fell for it.