How to win a war
In my last post, I talked about the slow pace of the SMO. Let us keep in mind that there is no one way of doing war – although people who write war games – particularly the people in the Pentagon – think there is. They don’t like “slow”— it’s boring. They want the Charge of the Light Brigade.
You would think the Americans would know better. After all, the Revolutionary War could not have been won (and it was barely “won”) if the Americans had followed the rules. They adapted and innovated.
That’s pretty much the case in every war. You have to fight “smart”.
Right now, the West is just following an outdated textbook.
In 2022, with Russian victory in Mariupol, I thought that the Russians would next take Nikolaev, a big city, of about 460,000. I was wrong.
It is Russian speaking—and, strategically, the gateway to the much larger city of Odessa, While the Ukrainians insist that all these Black Sea cities are Ukrainian with majority Ukrainian populations, Nikolaev and Odessa voted for Yanykovych, before the Maiden Coup. The Kiev regime is not popular on the Black Sea.
Odessa is, of course, the key to control of the Black Sea. But taking it would be a problem. It’s huge. The geography is complicated with a lots of fortifications. It would require a combined land /sea / air assault, but that would lead to a lot of civilian casualties. A siege would be the best way, cutting off supply lines for the UAF forces, who now comprise a lot of conscripts, many of with Russian sympathies. But that would require taking Nikolaev, first.
Lessee…3 months for Nikolaev. More for Odessa.
So I was right about Nikolaev insofar as it probably was easier to take in 2022 – and wrong in another—nobody knew what the West was going to do at that point. And the West was then still a force to be reckoned with.
The Russians were well-positioned strategically. But Putin elected to negotiate the Istanbul agreement. One step at a time.
That might have been a mistake if this conflict was a war, as the West defines it.
But Russia regarded it as a fraternal conflict. It wasn't fighting a “war”.
If negotiation would prevent death and destruction and guarantee the rights of ethnic Russians, it preferred peace. After all, by March, Ukrainians had been defeated.
Of course, we all know what happened afterwards. Odessa became the launching point for strikes on Crimea while NATO escalated supply of weapons and equipment, trainers and operators, and provided valuable ISR.
Was Putin right to try to negotiate?
Was he being too careful?
One must look at the results today three years on.
Istanbul might have brought peace –for a while—and certainly Putin did not have the kind of support the SMO then that he has now, nor the military, industrial and economic capabilities. Nor was NATO then proven to be second-rate militarily,
Yet, how could Istanbul have achieved the Kremlin’s two main goals – demilitarization and denazification?
The Kiev regime opted for greater militarization and greater Nazification, with greater oppression of Russians particularly in the Black Sea coast! The active involvement of NATO, and the US escalated.
So the Russians adapted.
Now the goal was to liberate all of Donbas, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye, and, at their request, incorporate them into the Russian Federation, dismantling and untangling the web of fortified villages and towns in the area created over a decade-- carefully sparing civilian lives and the lives of Russian soldiers.
Now, the work is almost done. As many as a million Ukrainian soldiers have died, with huge number of refugees fleeing to West to Europe or east to Russia. There are many more Ukrainian deserters than Russian KIAs!
The key hubs of of Chasov Yar, Krasny Liman, Prokovosk are about to fall. The major city of Kharkov is partly depopulated, opening the way to a siege. With Sumy under control, Russia will soon be able control much of Dniepr, cutting more supply lines,
Ukrainian terror attacks have intensified Russian support for Putin – but also demands for a harder line. There will be no forgiveness for Ukraine until the Ukrainians beg for it.
The city of Zaporozhye is under threat. And when it falls, the way is open to Kherson,
Once again, we are back to Nikolaev. And then Odessa.
The map shown here was June 2023. It is likely that Russia will want to control the East bank of the Dniepr with key cities on the West Bank, as well as Kryvyi Rih.
A key to control will be Kiev. Once a Russian city, now “Ukrainian” – it will likely choose to be “Russian Ukrainian”. Russia can offer its people a future. The West, especially the US, just want to rape it.
Without taking control of what amounts to the heart of Ukraine, Russia cannot denazify it.
How long does this take?
There will be no “Big Arrow”.
Probably, it will take a year. But, then, I have been wrong before — and things can happen very fast sometimes, as we saw in Vietnam, and later in Afghanistan. In addition, we can rely on the West making every possible mistake.
A major recession is forecast for the US – and that will also destabilize Europe. Trump has done nothing since taking office but double-down and triple-down on the mistakes of his first term. He has surrounded himself with people just as loony as himself.
As I said, in my last post, time is on Putin’s side. He leaves office in 2030. Ukraine will be his legacy. By that time I wager a much larger chunk of the region will be part of Russia.
But nobody wants Galicia and Lviv. Even the Poles don’t want it. Maybe Trump can turn it into a golf course.
Special Article
In addition to 3 Special Articles in the Putin series, the download links include 3 previous special articles, as well. When you buy a coffee you get access to all 6.
From what I understand rivers make attacking Odessa from the east virtually impossible.
It is my understanding coming from the North is the best option.
It is highly likely Russia will continue destroying the Ukraine military in the fields of the east to the point of collapse, then advance to surround & blockade the cities until they surrender.
I have an informed feeling Russia is going to speed up the destruction and progress this year.
#1. It took them time to build up all the required components- trained soldiers, equipment, weapons, ammunition, missiles & logistics needed to form new army's while at the same time supporting the SMO.
#2. They likely want to nip this in the bud before NATO gets any substantive production set up. If Russia advances to Ukraines western border, stops there, starts building solid defense fortifications and announces it wants to negotiate with Hungary, Romania, Slovakia & Poland regarding return of their traditional territories along with peace & security agreements- this will make it almost impossible for NATO to get their citizen slaves to back war against Russia.
Again you nailed it all over the place and described my vision. Russia is done with America's hypocrisy and dishonesty. They know what they are dealing with from long experience. Russia will proceed at its own pace and rules.