From what I understand rivers make attacking Odessa from the east virtually impossible.
It is my understanding coming from the North is the best option.
It is highly likely Russia will continue destroying the Ukraine military in the fields of the east to the point of collapse, then advance to surround & blockade the cities until they surrender.
I have an informed feeling Russia is going to speed up the destruction and progress this year.
#1. It took them time to build up all the required components- trained soldiers, equipment, weapons, ammunition, missiles & logistics needed to form new army's while at the same time supporting the SMO.
#2. They likely want to nip this in the bud before NATO gets any substantive production set up. If Russia advances to Ukraines western border, stops there, starts building solid defense fortifications and announces it wants to negotiate with Hungary, Romania, Slovakia & Poland regarding return of their traditional territories along with peace & security agreements- this will make it almost impossible for NATO to get their citizen slaves to back war against Russia.
Attacking from the East is not impossible, tactically, if you are equipped for that. The Ukrainians would find themselves exposed to aerial attack and artillery fire on the West bank. By the time, the Russians decided to cross (and there are various locations where they could) UAF forces would have much depleted. But the Russians will not "attack" Odessa. As you say, they would prefer to put large cities under siege. As for #2, it will be a LONG time before NAT0 gets production set up, given economic issues and deindustrialization. Russia has more than 10x the capacity and the gap is increasing. Russia simply outclasses NATO in all areas. Hungarhy, Romania, and Slovakia are also tilting towards Russia. Poland? I am sure that the Russians would love to give them Galicia (with an agreement not to militarize it) but the Poles hate the Galicians and vice versa.
My sensing has changed now it seems recently clear that Romania will not stay/become a NATO-puppet. The Wicked Witch of the WEF will have another Tantrum...
That means: No Air-support over the West-Black Sea Coast from that new Airbase in Romania, No easy and fast transport of troops and supplies via the Black Sea through Romania and Moldova to Odessa (the only usable road / Railway). What remains is also not secure, over land to and through Moldova to the border near Odessa.
I sense a Russian attempt on preventing NATO to fortify the Odessa-Nikolaev region, by the build-up of a Siege operation, that will disconnect it from troop-transports and supplies. There is Russian activity and massing of troops at the south-east Dnieper, threatening to cut the connection (Odessa-) Nikolaev<->Kherson.
There will soon be a crossing of the Dnieper around Zaporizhia and later around Dnipro to disconnect them from supplies coming from North-West Ukraine, cutting East-Ukraine from supplies and creating a Bridgehead west of the Dnieper.
Open steppe land, no barriers, it will add another 500 km to the frontline and stretch the Ukraine army so much, that complete holes will fall (start of the Collapse), forming of fortifications that will be surrounded by the Russians. But that will take time and happens after the offensive from Zaporizhia Bridgehead towards Transnistria, cutting the Odessa-Nikolaev Region from the North West.
Cutting those two cities from the West and South can be done via Transnistria (that can give supply-support of munitions and repairs). From that point to the Black Sea Coast SOUTH of Odessa is a small distance. It can be supported by Naval+Areal support (even landings and droppings under cover of Air and Russian Navy, and don't forget the subs).
After that it is waiting until the surrender.
When i sense it correctly, Putin will realise this before he goes in seriousness on to Kiev.
The reason is that in that case the NAZI-regime could move to Odessa being joined by French + Brits to fortify it, when they can establish a supply-route to and through Moldova or if the regime changed in Romania again, from that direction.
Again you nailed it all over the place and described my vision. Russia is done with America's hypocrisy and dishonesty. They know what they are dealing with from long experience. Russia will proceed at its own pace and rules.
No worries at all, Julian! Happy to help when required. You’ve got one of the best publications on Substack. I always read it! And I am banned from buying you coffees, or I certainly would.
I remember from American grade school the Hatfield–McCoy feud between 2 families living on opposite sides of a river. The Hatfields were residents of West Virginia. The McCoys of Kentucky. The Hatfields had more money and were generally the aggressors. After 30 years of mutual vandalism, theft, and murder many of the Hatfields were finally kidnapped, arrested and imprisoned for life or executed by the state of Kentucky.
West Virginia & Kentucky tolerated 30 years of cross-border violence between neighboring families. The SMO is only in year 3. We have a long long way to go before this is finished.
From what I understand rivers make attacking Odessa from the east virtually impossible.
It is my understanding coming from the North is the best option.
It is highly likely Russia will continue destroying the Ukraine military in the fields of the east to the point of collapse, then advance to surround & blockade the cities until they surrender.
I have an informed feeling Russia is going to speed up the destruction and progress this year.
#1. It took them time to build up all the required components- trained soldiers, equipment, weapons, ammunition, missiles & logistics needed to form new army's while at the same time supporting the SMO.
#2. They likely want to nip this in the bud before NATO gets any substantive production set up. If Russia advances to Ukraines western border, stops there, starts building solid defense fortifications and announces it wants to negotiate with Hungary, Romania, Slovakia & Poland regarding return of their traditional territories along with peace & security agreements- this will make it almost impossible for NATO to get their citizen slaves to back war against Russia.
Attacking from the East is not impossible, tactically, if you are equipped for that. The Ukrainians would find themselves exposed to aerial attack and artillery fire on the West bank. By the time, the Russians decided to cross (and there are various locations where they could) UAF forces would have much depleted. But the Russians will not "attack" Odessa. As you say, they would prefer to put large cities under siege. As for #2, it will be a LONG time before NAT0 gets production set up, given economic issues and deindustrialization. Russia has more than 10x the capacity and the gap is increasing. Russia simply outclasses NATO in all areas. Hungarhy, Romania, and Slovakia are also tilting towards Russia. Poland? I am sure that the Russians would love to give them Galicia (with an agreement not to militarize it) but the Poles hate the Galicians and vice versa.
Thank you both, Nick & Julian.
My sensing has changed now it seems recently clear that Romania will not stay/become a NATO-puppet. The Wicked Witch of the WEF will have another Tantrum...
That means: No Air-support over the West-Black Sea Coast from that new Airbase in Romania, No easy and fast transport of troops and supplies via the Black Sea through Romania and Moldova to Odessa (the only usable road / Railway). What remains is also not secure, over land to and through Moldova to the border near Odessa.
I sense a Russian attempt on preventing NATO to fortify the Odessa-Nikolaev region, by the build-up of a Siege operation, that will disconnect it from troop-transports and supplies. There is Russian activity and massing of troops at the south-east Dnieper, threatening to cut the connection (Odessa-) Nikolaev<->Kherson.
There will soon be a crossing of the Dnieper around Zaporizhia and later around Dnipro to disconnect them from supplies coming from North-West Ukraine, cutting East-Ukraine from supplies and creating a Bridgehead west of the Dnieper.
Open steppe land, no barriers, it will add another 500 km to the frontline and stretch the Ukraine army so much, that complete holes will fall (start of the Collapse), forming of fortifications that will be surrounded by the Russians. But that will take time and happens after the offensive from Zaporizhia Bridgehead towards Transnistria, cutting the Odessa-Nikolaev Region from the North West.
Cutting those two cities from the West and South can be done via Transnistria (that can give supply-support of munitions and repairs). From that point to the Black Sea Coast SOUTH of Odessa is a small distance. It can be supported by Naval+Areal support (even landings and droppings under cover of Air and Russian Navy, and don't forget the subs).
After that it is waiting until the surrender.
When i sense it correctly, Putin will realise this before he goes in seriousness on to Kiev.
The reason is that in that case the NAZI-regime could move to Odessa being joined by French + Brits to fortify it, when they can establish a supply-route to and through Moldova or if the regime changed in Romania again, from that direction.
OK.
Just my cent.
Cassandra
That's some excellent sensing!
Again you nailed it all over the place and described my vision. Russia is done with America's hypocrisy and dishonesty. They know what they are dealing with from long experience. Russia will proceed at its own pace and rules.
Putin was elected in 2024 for a six-year term, so he is due to leave office in 2030.
Thanks for catching that. It was a mistype. I have corrected it.
No worries at all, Julian! Happy to help when required. You’ve got one of the best publications on Substack. I always read it! And I am banned from buying you coffees, or I certainly would.
I noticed the error as well. Rump🇮🇱 will be gone in 2028. Who knows who comes next but you can bet it'll be a R or D idiot.
I remember from American grade school the Hatfield–McCoy feud between 2 families living on opposite sides of a river. The Hatfields were residents of West Virginia. The McCoys of Kentucky. The Hatfields had more money and were generally the aggressors. After 30 years of mutual vandalism, theft, and murder many of the Hatfields were finally kidnapped, arrested and imprisoned for life or executed by the state of Kentucky.
West Virginia & Kentucky tolerated 30 years of cross-border violence between neighboring families. The SMO is only in year 3. We have a long long way to go before this is finished.
Five coffees so far, I'd sure like to read the special articles
Did you receive he email with the links fo download the articles (there are 6 in total!).
I have not, but hope to soon. Thank you.
What impact will this "minerals" deal have on the SMO?
My impression is that it could further entangle the US, all of Trump's rhetoric about ending the conflict notwithstanding.
Oh boy! Since you got your coffee, am I on the mailing list?
Definitely,