Iran: A Perfect Storm
The war in the Middle East heats up. It is a perfect storm
The US has had to admit to some casualties in Jordan, 2 dead, one missing which means 3 dead and unspecified “wounded”, some of whom will likely die later, but not be registered as KIA to keep numbers down. Remember when the death toll was just 13? Now the official number is well over 400 and unofficially 700 to 800.
The silence of the dead
Is the loudest voice,
heard with the soul.
Not just soldiers
But children
mothers and fathers
murdered.
Do you feel their fear
At the darkness ?
Listen with heart
Never forget. (JM)
CENTCOM’s constant propaganda efforts – lies and a blanket refusal to even to acknowledge Iranian claims which later too often turn out to be true-- must, you would think, undermine the confidence of the American public – in Trump’s absurd and of course criminal war.
But the US is a bubble world. A bubble economy. A bubble society in a bubble universe.
American credibility died long ago.
Murder by Media….
Propaganda creates a bubble of belief.
It only works:
a.) for the country that produces it, and in vassal states using its media
b.) when the country that produces it is winning
Will Trump escalate?
That would be crazy. But it is likely. Right now the focus is on Southern Iraq with bombing and missile strikes to reduce Iran’s ability to strike using drones and cruise missiles at tankers using the Oman coastline to exit.
But Iran is now using mines — including “smart” mines to hit tankers instead.
As I wrote before, there are many kinds of mines and Iran is a leader in the field.
The trouble with conventional mines is always the clean-up after there is no need for them, although they can be programmed to self destruct after a certain amount of time .
Of course, Iran has lots of very effective mines. .
The straits were probably not mined before — but with the US strikes— all bets are off.
“Smart” mines are ever so effective.
So, Iran can now stop traffic through Hormuz as needed.
The Maham series mines sit on the seabed and trigger based on a ship’s unique magnetic, acoustic, or pressure signatures— which, of course, makes traditional minesweeping just too dangerous.
Removal for the US would involve a slow, highly technical step-by-step process to carve out “safe corridors”
Before any mines can be removed, they must be located
MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters could be employed using airborne laser systems but those only scan the upper water column for drifting or tethered mines.
Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) that dive to the seafloor use high-frequency AI-driven sonarto map the seabed, flagging anomalies that match the shape of Iranian smart mines –but there are inevitably a lot of natural anomalies creating false positives.
Once a smart mine is identified and logged, small, remote-controlled underwater vehicles like the Archerfish or the single-sortie Barracuda swim directly up to the mine, look at it via video feed to confirm it and detonate a built-in shaped charge, destroying both itself and the mine.
To carry out these operations, the US needs to use naval assets like Guided-Missile Destroyers to provide air defense and electronic warfare protection for the slow-moving de-mining crews against potential swarm attacks.. But that creates a new problem because these vessels also become targets for drones and cruise missiles and of course can trigger mines if they get too close
The US strikes on Bandar Abas and environs are unlikely to have affected Iran’s ability to launch cruise missiles or drones or fire missiles from its mosquito fleet.
All that means Iran can keep Hormuz closed as along as it wants.
At the same time, Iran has upped the ante against the GCC states, striking power facilities, oil production, and desalination plants.
The US at this point cannot launch a major campaign against Iran without Israeli help. But the IDF should be loathe to try that since it would trigger massive strikes on Israel.
At this point, however, Iran’s main weapon is economic.
Oil shock = energy crisis.
And what do the AI need more than anythings - cheap energy.
If you look at the video above, however, it is clear that China has already won.
Yet, President Trump signed executive orders directing agencies like the Department of Energy (DOE) to designate AI data centers as “critical defense facilities” and prioritize the nuclear reactors powering them as defense critical electric infrastructure.
The DOE announced a $17.5 billion loan program to accelerate the construction of 10 large legacy nuclear reactors by 2030, with a target to quadruple total U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050.
The administration has worked to gut regulatory requirements, halving licensing times for advanced nuclear reactors to spur the deployment of both large legacy plants and next-generation Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) near data center sites.
To bypass long grid-connection delays, major tech companies—such as Microsoft and Google—are signing long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to restart mothballed reactors, including units at Three Mile Island.
What could go wrong?
Problems?
Recent nuclear builds in the US have been years late and billions over budget.
Completing the designs by 2030 is possible, but producing commercial electricity from them by that year is improbable. Think: 2040 or later.
The aggressive push for rapid approval and relaxed safety rules under the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will compromise public trust and result in all kinds of pushback.
And:
The power generated is not for public use - only for the AI giants!
After a while burden for ordinary people is too much.
Now factor in the possibility of that long overdue crash to end crashes. Want to know why it will happen?
Maybe when you least expect it to?
Just read the WSJ and watch CNN, the media telling you that the US is doing fine and AI will save us all! The more they predict “growth”, the sooner the end comes.
Can Russia, China and Iran Profit?
Let us remember that the Russia and China and Iran will not be affected by a US crash as much as the US vassal states, especially Europe.
It is perhaps no coincidence that Russia is using the term “SVO’ less and talking more about the “war” with NATO and Ukraine as though the two were one, while blitzing Kiev and Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.
Kiev helps —with strikes on civilian centers giving Russia cause. It is, among other things, a message to NATO and the US to not even think about militarizing the Black Sea or causing trouble in the Baltics.
Just like Iran, Russia has built up a huge supply of advanced drones and missiles .
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From the article: "The silence of the dead Is the loudest voice, heard with the soul. Not just soldiers But children mothers and fathers murdered. Do you feel their fear At the darkness? Listen with heart Never forget." (JM) When I was a teenager (JR High School, not Middle School whatever the hell that means) my oldest brother was killed in the Vietnam War, and this is what awakened me to EMPIRE! Watching my father cry during his first-born child's funeral. I have a picture of Robbie in his Army uniform, and I think to myself, what a baby face: What a waste! He was not allowed to marry his High School Sweetheart. Never to have children nor grandchildren like his siblings. Not allowed to enjoy that wonderous world of adventure which takes place in our world: The Good. The Bad. And the Ugly!
Thanks for the exposition on how the Iranians will mine the Strait of Hormuz to keep it closed. Seems the US military will huff and puff and never achieve its goal.