Thanks for the straightforward analysis of what actually happened. I like the Iranian statement to the UN. Straight, to the point. None of that hasbara nonsense.
So... In essence the Iranian Strategy turns out to be like the Russian in Ukraine: A War of Attrition...
After NATO in Europe, now also in West-Asia: let them hunt cheap Drones with expensive air-defense missiles, until they are depleted as the situation in Europe is...
Blatant common sense told you not one of these reports made any sense - thankfully you clarified all of it. From the initial Iranian reaction I thought to myself this sounds way more like Russian strategy!
Time was the real killer - imagine how much preparation went in to "when" this would occur and the cost.
I believe that's actually what the escalation of the Ukrainian war is all about - attempting to deplete Russia's arsenal and keeping them bogged down IN Russia rather than allowing them to move on to the Middle East and bringing closure to all of this.
However according to Scott Ritter or perhaps Colonel Macgregor - Russia is only using 15% of it's military forces. I think when and if push comes to shove this was will be over very quickly! Both NATO the USA and Israel have all depleted everything while Russia China Iran and even Turkey and North Korea have done the exact polar opposite.
I also believe in many ways Russia actually goaded them into this for that very purpose. Depletion of arms. Very similar of what you stated Iran just did. ONE shot and this is all over! As far as using nuclear weapons - not if all of the above destroy Israel's et al capability first. Furthermore nuclear war is an overused scare tactical term.
Russia has effectively demilitarized and largely disarmed NATO. Iran is doing the same for Israel. The West does not have the industrial base to keep up. This was Japan's problem in World War II – now it is the West's.
The IDF claims Iran launched ballistic missiles – 120 of them! Which, according to them, they intercepted. US sources say just drones and cruise missiles. So far, there is no concrete evidence of ballistic missiles having been used. One thing is certain – whatever the IDF says has to be taken with a cargo ship of salt! LOL. Part of the confusion here comes from Simplicius in his long and convoluted article on the strike which initially seems to imply that the Iranians used their very sophisticated missile assets. I say "seems" because Simplicius is anything but simple. If you read carefully, you'll see that is unlikely Iranians opted for ballistic missiles – which would be more effective but escalatory.
Please don't be so hard on yourself. I make oversights like that all the time - and I don't write gigantic comprehensive articles at short notice and post them for every carping critic in the world to study! As an ex-editor, it's hard for me to refrain from pointing out tiny blemishes in a superb piece of work.
The Cold War was started by Truman — not by FDR, and not by Stalin.
The start of the U.S. Government’s effort to take control over the entire planet occurred on 25 July 1945 by U.S. President Harry Truman, just a few months after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had died on 12 April 1945.
Of humble beginnings, and a devout anticommunist, Missourian Harry Truman left his mark in history, for the worse, but, as usual, larger forces determined the nation's course.
Dr. Marco Soddu’s excellent 13 December 2012 study of “Truman Administration’s Containment Policy in Light of the French Return to Indochina” makes clear that (unlike FDR) President Truman’s historical understanding was poor and vulnerable to shaping by advisors who themselves had poor understanding, or perhaps ulterior motives.
Great article! I wrote an article about Iranian defensive and offensive capabilities here if you or your readers are interested.
https://www.eomar.news/p/a-wider-war-iran?r=b9f3l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thanks for the straightforward analysis of what actually happened. I like the Iranian statement to the UN. Straight, to the point. None of that hasbara nonsense.
1.3 BILLION DOLLARS TO IRANS COUPLE MILLION AT THE MOST. Expensive night for the apartide state.
Any proof they hit anything yet?
We've shared your link Julian.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-04-15
thank you so much!
Thanks for pointing out what a strategic move Iran just made, Julian.
Great article !
So... In essence the Iranian Strategy turns out to be like the Russian in Ukraine: A War of Attrition...
After NATO in Europe, now also in West-Asia: let them hunt cheap Drones with expensive air-defense missiles, until they are depleted as the situation in Europe is...
Sander
Correct. War of attrition worked for Russia. Now, it's working for Iran.
"Last night I posted an article in which I suggested that Iran would postpone retaliation..."
Well... predictions are hard to make, especially about the future!
said Yogi Berra.
Yup. Once again I was wrong.
Blatant common sense told you not one of these reports made any sense - thankfully you clarified all of it. From the initial Iranian reaction I thought to myself this sounds way more like Russian strategy!
Time was the real killer - imagine how much preparation went in to "when" this would occur and the cost.
I believe that's actually what the escalation of the Ukrainian war is all about - attempting to deplete Russia's arsenal and keeping them bogged down IN Russia rather than allowing them to move on to the Middle East and bringing closure to all of this.
However according to Scott Ritter or perhaps Colonel Macgregor - Russia is only using 15% of it's military forces. I think when and if push comes to shove this was will be over very quickly! Both NATO the USA and Israel have all depleted everything while Russia China Iran and even Turkey and North Korea have done the exact polar opposite.
I also believe in many ways Russia actually goaded them into this for that very purpose. Depletion of arms. Very similar of what you stated Iran just did. ONE shot and this is all over! As far as using nuclear weapons - not if all of the above destroy Israel's et al capability first. Furthermore nuclear war is an overused scare tactical term.
Russia has effectively demilitarized and largely disarmed NATO. Iran is doing the same for Israel. The West does not have the industrial base to keep up. This was Japan's problem in World War II – now it is the West's.
Totally agree - great strategy also unlike the west!!
Nice short summary of recent events.
For a more detailed analysis, please see my latest article:
https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/iran-has-responded-to-israel
The IDF claims Iran launched ballistic missiles – 120 of them! Which, according to them, they intercepted. US sources say just drones and cruise missiles. So far, there is no concrete evidence of ballistic missiles having been used. One thing is certain – whatever the IDF says has to be taken with a cargo ship of salt! LOL. Part of the confusion here comes from Simplicius in his long and convoluted article on the strike which initially seems to imply that the Iranians used their very sophisticated missile assets. I say "seems" because Simplicius is anything but simple. If you read carefully, you'll see that is unlikely Iranians opted for ballistic missiles – which would be more effective but escalatory.
Thank you-- good article
"A Shahed 136 drone—now being replaced by the Shaded 236—costs the Iranians about $10,000 to make— $170,000 for 170 drones".
That should of course read $1,700,000 for 170 drones. Still bargain basement.
My bad . It's my dyscalculia again. Dyslexia, dyscalculia, "dys" everything ... Back to grade 4 – four remedial
Please don't be so hard on yourself. I make oversights like that all the time - and I don't write gigantic comprehensive articles at short notice and post them for every carping critic in the world to study! As an ex-editor, it's hard for me to refrain from pointing out tiny blemishes in a superb piece of work.
Wonderful Richard, here at it again:
Biggest Attack on Israel in History: 5 Countries With Hundreds of Drones and Ballistic Missiles
https://rumble.com/v4pcmlf-biggest-attack-on-israel-in-history-5-countries-with-hundreds-of-drones-and.html
Nice history here of the dirty InBred UnUnited Queen/Queer-dom and Franco Freaks and the other empires of old:
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2024/04/13/we-live-in-the-world-that-truman-made/
The Cold War was started by Truman — not by FDR, and not by Stalin.
The start of the U.S. Government’s effort to take control over the entire planet occurred on 25 July 1945 by U.S. President Harry Truman, just a few months after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had died on 12 April 1945.
Of humble beginnings, and a devout anticommunist, Missourian Harry Truman left his mark in history, for the worse, but, as usual, larger forces determined the nation's course.
Dr. Marco Soddu’s excellent 13 December 2012 study of “Truman Administration’s Containment Policy in Light of the French Return to Indochina” makes clear that (unlike FDR) President Truman’s historical understanding was poor and vulnerable to shaping by advisors who themselves had poor understanding, or perhaps ulterior motives.
I certainly agree about Truman – as I've written in my special articles for coffee buyers.