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Surviving the Billionaire Wars's avatar

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/17222?single

(Finally. Thrown out half dozen+ times!)

Text from Middle East Eye article.( Still trying to copy link. For some reason chrome hates this article)

—❗️🇮🇷/🇸🇩/🇮🇱 NEW: Analysts have pointed out, for the first time, a huge underground tunnel complex in Sudan, presumably constructed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at 16.251586° 32.646261°

The underground base has 12 different entrances, and is located deeply underground and heavily fortified, built in very similar fashion to Iran's missile bases. Sudan's neighbours and traditional enemies do not have the capacity or bunker-busting ammunitions to be able to destroy even one of these entrances for a prolonged period, so the question arises: What enemy was it meant to defend against?

One quickly comes to the conclusion that the intended 'aggressor' in this case is Israel. This becomes more obvious considering the fact that Israel has carried out several airstrikes in Sudan throughout the past few years under the pretext of 'weapons smuggling to Hamas'.

Iran has been supplying the Sudanese government with weapons and logistical support since the beginning of the Sudanese civil war against the RSF in 2023, and the Israeli military think tank 'Alma' claims in a recent report that Iran is using Sudan as a land route to the Mediterranean Sea for weapons transfers to Hamas and Hezbollah.

According to some experts, the underground base even contains aspects of a possible missile production site, indicating that Iran might be producing ballistic missiles in Sudan, possibly for the Sudanese Armed Forces.

@Middle_East_Spectator

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Yes. Iran has various options for supplying weapons and tech to both Yemen and Lebanon. Lebanon has at least 13 major ports, apart from Beirut. Some are operated by the government, some by private agencies, all of which are notably corrupt.

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Humanity's Progeny's avatar

A few things regarding Lebanon and Hezbollah from a Lebanese living in Lebanon.

1) everyone talks about corruption in Lebanon, but did you know, the current government is made up of 1/3 Hezbollah supporters, 1/3 Israelis supporters, and 1/3 in between taking hits from both sides?

Lebanon's corruption is because of its factionalism, if Hezbollah gain control of the government (2016- 2024) then the other side will declare it corrupt, if the other side gains control, the Hezbollah will declare it corrupt (2005- 2016). Corruption in Lebanon is a bludgeoning tool against political opponents. Everyone is corrupt, no one is clean, and any talk otherwise is pure propaganda.

2) Internally, Hezbollah maintains its popularity within its faction (Lebanese Shia) but has lost the support of their christian allies (FPM) and that has nothing to do with Israel or the west and everything to do with Hezbollah's lopsided inter-factional politics where they pay lip service to their allies and then support the Israelis supporters in every governmental decision ever taken. Hence why they made a decision to create a government with their sworn enemy in the christian faction (LF). And this is being spun as a victory for the Israelis (it is not).

3) In regards to the weapons, there are rumors that Hezbollah's current benefactor is no longer Iran but Turkey. The Turks are known for their duplicity. And they don't trust the Israelis. At all. Iran is sending weapons and money through Turkey, those are the rumors anyway. But none of this is confirmed. What is confirmed however, is that the Shias in Lebanon are moving to the christian quarters, especially from the South and the southern bayou of Beyrouth. So the situation isn't working at all and there are a lot of people expecting a return to war.

I hope that helps.

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Richard V's avatar

Very informative post. Thank you.

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Richard V's avatar

It's very difficult to know what exactly happened and what is going on in Lebanon. Hezbollah's deterrence after the 2006 war was based on the appearance of a massive precision missile arsenal which would deter Israeli air attacks on population centers in Damascus and the Bekaa Valley. Theoretically, if Israel began a terror air-campaign, Hez would begin to strike Israeli infrastructure and military targets--saturate the air bases and turn off the lights and water. That in fact was what Nasrallah said would happen. It didn't. Why? What we got was pinprick drone strikes and missile strikes that forced Israeli evacuation in the marginal north but did not seriously hit Haifa, Tel Aviv or the fighter bases in the south. Israel bombed and continues to bomb at will in Damascus and all over Lebanon. Hezbollah's leadership and structure was destroyed all the way down to platoon level. How could this happen? Platoon level did indeed fight very effectively in Southern Lebanon--but that was it. Israel still occupies the strategic high ground and continues to destroy crops and villages in the south. Nasrallah said the war would be fought in Galilee, not Lebanon. It didn't happen. Why? Hez said it would fight as long as Israel continued the Gaza genocide. It didn't. It backed down with an extremely one-sided ceasefire which they continue to support while Israel bombs away. And the genocide continues. Hezbollah came up short, way short. How did this happen? Virtually all leadership(senior and otherwise), command, meeting, and living locations were identified, targeted and destroyed. How did this happen? Here's the answer. The Israeli's fought a different kind of war. Too complicated for me to explain in this post. But this article explains it very well. Read and understand. https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/14/the-eyes-and-ears-that-decapitated-hezbollah/

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Thank you for this comment which brings up an important point, also indicated in the wordpress article. That point is the extent of Israel's success in assassinating Hezbollah people and its effects. In a number of my posts I have written about this . Israel targets Hezbollah leaders and has been successful in that - which would make a difference if Hezbollah was a conventional military organization with conventional hierarchy. But it isn't hierarchical in the same way as Israeli or Americans organizations are - it is a heterarchical hybrid relaying on grassroots support and collaboration between different groups. When a leader is taken out -- they are replacements available -- often younger, and more energetic. Hezbollah's structure was remained intact -- some would seem got leaner and meaner with Israeli attacks. To kill Nasrallah, Israel took out a sizeable chunk of a block of residential buildings with heavy duty munitions. But that wasn't a Hezbollah command center -- it was residential. Hezbollah's military and command centers were designed with IRG help and are heavily fortified, deep underground. Hezbollah doesn't have "platoons" -- it is not the US military. It is organized differently! It's military organization remains intact.

Yes, the Israelis fight a different kind of war. And that is their weakness-- and why they were clearly defeated in their invasion of Southern Lebanon.

The problem for Hezbollah is not so much Israel as Lebanon itself -- the factionalized Lebanon government. They remember only too clearly the Lebanese Civil war -- 1975~1990. The government is corrupt and of course the US and Israel have been pouring money in to make things worse while bombing civilians and saying, "If only you get rid of Hezbollah, things will be OK".

In fact, they have adopted the same line in Gaza -- "if only you get rid of Hamas" things will be better, which has prompted some Palestinian demonstrations against Hamas!

They did that in Syria, "If only you get rid of Assad...". Who bought off the Syrian military? Follow the money, as I have said. I think the money trail would lead back to the US. But Israel would have been the conduit.

Hezbollah has seen all that. So first it will pretend to play nice with the Beirut govt. While biding its time and building its forces.

Its previous missile attacks on Israel were successful in forcing evacuation of Israel's northern territories., Attacks on Haifa or Tel Aviv would have had to be massive to penetrate air defenses--and that would provoke massive retaliation by both Israel and the US with heavy civilian casualties in Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah did not want all-out war- but they wanted to extract a price for the war on Gaza.

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Richard V's avatar

The proof is in the pudding. You don't agree to a one-sided ceasefire which you respect and your opponent violates while continuing genocide if you have won. Israel is bordered by comprador states in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. Syria is in ruins. These forces have largely been subdued. Israel's defeat will likely come from its own internal, divided population and collapsing institutions. Enjoy your blog. Keep up the good work.

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Truth Seeking Missile's avatar

I think I'll take the author's advice and start by "doubting everything." The Zionist Jews often paint such pretty pictures, and without attribution.

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adam's avatar

Hezbollah while brave was lacking leadership with intelligence. Israel fights all out war all of the time, they have no morals, no ethics or care for human suffering. Hezbollah did not need to bomb civilians just for fun like Israel does, though having one toe in the water and one out the water during war is not what 100's of years of modern warfare has taught us as being a good strategy.

It was an idiotic display. I get it no one wants to die but they died anyway through being timid.

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Occupy Schagen's avatar

Thank you Julian...

On the Middle East you are unsurpassed...

->https://www.occupyschagen.nl/Div/Hoed-afnemen2.jpg

Sander

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Eomar's avatar

People saw Hezbollah fighting and now the ‘government’ rolling over for israel. I imagine the impotence of the Lebanese government is doing nothing but helping Hezbollah.

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Yes, you can read my reply above to Richard V.

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Perseus's avatar

And not much about the anti-western demonstrations in Oman. Europeans are excluded in these talks between USA and Iran. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/as-iran-nuclear-talks-get-underway-in-oman-excluded-europeans-are-wary_6740143_4.html. The Europeans better make sure they're have enough comfortable accommodations when all the people are dumped again as "refugees" while they are in fact evicted. After Irak, Syria, Sahel now the next millions will come from Lebanon and Gaza. And Europe can not close its borders.

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Surviving the Billionaire Wars's avatar

Wrong link. Still trying!

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Surviving the Billionaire Wars's avatar

Agree that Hezbollah is holding its fire.

Today reports, Israel claims to have found a buildup of a tunnel complex in Sudan, which they claim is used by Iran to supply weapons over land.

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