Israel Loses Again
Lies piled on top of lies.
Predictions sometimes come true.
In yesterday's post, I predicted that Israel would launch an attack on Iran despite the "leak" about its plans-- if it was a leak at all! It seemed to me they were in a hurry to do this.
But I also suggested that it would be a "symbolic" attack--just as the IRGC has said it would.
Obviously a “symbolic attack” is gestural or ritualistic– meaning it's an attack that doesn't do real damage .
But how do you get around the embarrassing fact that you are punching air..
You do that by pretending that your attack did do damage--just the other side doesn't want to admit it. You say you penetrated their defenses -- and embarrassed them. You knocked them down. And they are denying it.
If you have a compliant media willing to backup your story-- and even elaborate on— it all the better!
This is something that the Ukraine does all the time-- insisting that they are winning and Russia is losing, with the Western media dutifully running the stories. Right now, it's North Korean troops in Ukraine trying to compensate for Russia's failure in Kursk! And there lots of people in the West to take that silliness as God's truth-- or Zelinski's truth – that being the same.
So Israel says that it launched an attack using about 100 aircraft, attacking at least 20 military sites in Iran-- successfully of course. Google it. You will see zillions of stories to that effect. You won’t find stories to contradict it much—it’s Google after all.
Inconvenient Facts
Keep in mind that Israel is at least 1400 miles away from its targets.
It was using AIR LORAN air-launched missiles.
The media calls these “ballistic”.
Actually they are quasi -ballistic--supersonic— but not quite hypersonic in the terminal phase, as fully ballistic missiles are —and with a range of just 175 miles with “fire and forget” navigation using GPS and inertial navigation. The distance between Israel and Tehran is about 1000 miles.
So aircraft must get closer than 825 miles to launch these thimngs. .
F 15 combat radius: 790 miles
F16 combat radius: 500 miles
F35 combat radius: 590 miles
These combat radiuses are, of course fully loaded —but can be extended plus alpha in various ways.
Air to air refueling is one way. Of, course, in this case, the aircraft could also land at a base in Iraq, mission completed. Substituting weapon payload for extra fuel tanks is another method.
The figures below are for the IAF in 2023. (Wikipedia)
The IAF may have received more aircraft since then— but likely lost some during Iran’s last missile strikes, so these numbers are approximate if basically ballpark.
Of these aircraft only F15s have the range to do the mission comfortably. Israel does have about 10 air tankers— maybe just enough for 40 or 50— but not for 100. With a 100, it would need American help to extend range.
Iranian sources pooh-pooh the idea of 100 aircraft attacking. However, 50 F15s COULD carry two Air LORANs each. F16s and F35s can also carry 2 missiles but are a tad short-legged. So, it probably wasn’t 100 aircraft - but 100 (or fewer) missiles.
Israeli F15s have slightly better range than their American counterparts and much better range than F16s, even with conformal fuel tanks like the one above. They would do the heavy lifting.
50 F15s could launch 100 missiles at maximum range, offering shorter flight times for the missiles
However, the Iranian side has been given Russian radars and EW which jams GPS very effectively. The radars have excellent range.
Whether or not the Iranians used S400s, S300s, or their own equivalents .they would have high kill rates. Out of 100 missiles, only 10 could get through. Of those only a couple would hit their targets.
Videos taken over Iran appear to show a lot of incoming missiles being snuffed out a high rate.
As I said, the Israelis said they attacked 20 sites but they really mean their plan had 20 targets.
The Iranians say, they tried to hit maybe 4. From the Iranian side. their interceptions and EW were mostly successful. Not that the video footage really gives a lot of informationl
The Western media has made much of Iran’s admitting two deaths as a result ot the attacks - -but it is not clear whether these were in Iran - or, as is more likely, in Syria, where Israel attacked Iranian radar stations. A quibble.
He says, she says….
Iran says little damage. Israel says a lot….BUT
Israel structured its strikes on Iran to limit casualties and keep the overall impact contained, a move designed to allow Iran to minimize acknowledgment of the damage and manage the aftermath, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing an individual with direct knowledge of Israel’s plans.
According to this source, the action was an escalated version of Israel’s response in April, when it conducted a strike in central Iran after Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel. Iranian officials at the time reported no resulting damage.
That’s the Jerusalem post quoting WaPo who is quoting an “Israeli source”, LOL.
A media circle jerk.
I go with Iran’s story.
All in all, this attack was a massive failure for both Israel and the US.
They must work hard to pretend it was not. Fortunately for them, they have the media to create an informational “Fog” as I explain in my recent Special Report for coffee buyers— “The Financialization of Information”.
Of course, the Iranians will respond. After election day?
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Having listened to several credible sources in regard to the Israeli attack on Iran, it appears to have been another powder puff and handbag slap just like the prior one.
It appears that very little real damage was done, and that most of the missiles were intercepted by Iranian air defences, also to be read as Russian air defence systems, which despite the hype about Israel's "Iron Dome", the Russian systems appear to be the best available on the globe.
Israel, just like the US have shown that they are Loud Mouthed Cowards, not capable of fighting a real army, but rather prefer to kill defenceless women and children, while they attempt to talk and threaten real armies to death.
Response to Julian MacFarlane's "Israel Loses Again"
I initially wondered why Israel would opt for what would likely be a lame attack similar to April, where most missiles would be intercepted and little hits achieved. I suspected that Israel would use Jerichos and their submarines which would avoid the overflight and range issues. If it attempted an air attack, it would need hundreds of planes and direct US assistance - which I assumed would be forthcoming.
As it turns out, according to Alastair Crooke on Judge Napolitano's Youtube show on Monday, Israel DID intend a massive air attack of three waves. What actually happened, allegedly according to Israeli media sources, is the first wave ran into an "unknown AD system over Tehran", as Crooke and the Israelis put it, which painted the supposedly "stealthy" F-35s which were intended to penetrate deep into Iranian air space and take out the Iranian air defense so the subsequent waves could also penetrate deep. This is called SEAD - Suppression of Enemy Air Defense.
So the initial wave panicked and fired their missiles, which were GPS guided so easily spoofed by the Russian and Iranian ECM. Which is why they didn't hit much except a couple air defenses and some abandoned buildings at the Parchin complex - which is a military facility, not a nuclear facility. Then they turned and ran.
The second and third waves were called off since without suppressed Iranian defenses those waves would be sitting ducks for the effective Iranian AD. By the way, it's apparently still not confirmed that Russia supplied the S-400 AD system to Iran. Russia did previously provide several S-300 systems - and Iran has its own indigenously developed S-300 equivalent.
So with the attack a more or less complete bust, Netanyahu opted to simply "declare success", knowing the Israeli public wouldn't understand the situation and the Western press would tout Israel's "great success."
In the same vein, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant is now claiming that Israel has accomplished its goals in southern Lebanon, supposedly having eliminated thousands of Hezbollah troops and missile launchers and Hezbollah is running.
Needless to say, that's a crock... In reality, Israel is taking worse casualties than it ever took in the 2006 conflict - but for the same reasons: the competence of Hezbollah and its prepared defenses and the incompetence of the reserve-based Israeli army. The hit on the Golani Brigade in its dining hall at dinner time was a real shock. Daily Israeli casualties are estimated to be 20-80 killed and wounded.
Now reportedly Netanyahu has suggested to Washington that Israel will abandon its southern Lebanon mission if the US would impose an air and naval and ground blockade on Lebanon "so that Hezbollah can not rearm" (remember, Gallant claims Hezbollah is already defeated, to support Netanyahu's claim that all Israel needs now is to prevent "rearming Hezbollah".)
Of course, any such US "blockade" would be instantly attacked by Hezbollah in the air, at sea and on land, resulting in forcing the US to enter the war against Hezbollah - which is exactly what Netanyahu wants.
We will now have to wait and see if the neocons still have enough clout on Biden and Harris - note: Harris is not yet President, so it doesn't matter what she thinks - to get the demented Biden to order the blockade. Or whether the Pentagon can poke enough holes in the neocon plan to forestall it.
As for the latter, the Pentagon is almost certainly divided between those who want payback for the Beirut Marine barracks bombing and who are over-confident of US military capability, and those who understand that attacking Hezbollah opens the door for the US-Iran war inevitably. And even some of those latter probably think the US can "defeat" Iran - which it can't.
What will happen is the US will become bogged down in Lebanon, and then since the narrative is that "Iran is arming Hezbollah, so we have to take out Iran" - which has already been said numerous times by various lunatics like Senator Graham - the Congress will authorize that.
And then we're off to the races, with both Russia and China assuring Iran that they will not let it fall - even assuming the US could make Iran fall, which it can't short of nuking Tehran. Then the question will also be will Israel resort to nuking Tehran?
Israel, for its parts, assumes that once the US enters the war, the pressure from Hezbollah will be off Israel and it can then finish its genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. Then once that's done, Israel goes back to being a tourist trap, seizes the gas off the Gaza and Lebanese coasts, and also benefits from being a Mediterranean trade hub - and gets rich. Your typical Jewish wet dream.
As I like to say: "That Ain't Gonna Happen."