It's the economy, stupid

Also. Plots and subplots

On September 25, the US, France, and several other nations released a joint statement calling for an immediate 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon to give time to reach a diplomatic solution to the situation on the Israel-Lebanon border and reach a ceasefire in Gaza. The following day, Netanyahu arrived in New York for the UN General Assembly and rejected rumors that Israel agreed to the truce.

US officials told the media that they coordinated the ceasefire proposal with Israel and were “frustrated” with Netanyahu for rejecting it. But the US put no real pressure on Israel to agree to the ceasefire. The same day Netanyahu rejected it, Israel announced it secured another $8.7 billion in military aid from Washington.

On Friday, September 27, Netanyahu ordered the massive airstrike that killed Nasrallah from a hotel in New York, following his address to the UN. Israeli officials told ABC News they decided to kill Nasrallah because he wouldn’t negotiate a diplomatic solution without a ceasefire in Gaza. Antiwar.com

The response to this interview was all over the internet with various interpretations—many of which were like that of Richard Steven Hack in this article : How Nasrallah Was Tricked Into Dying.

He wrote (in bold letters, just in case, you weren’t paying attention)….

THE ENTIRE CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL WAS A PLOT TO KILL NASRALLAH

The article is one you should read – umm…critically, as with all such analyses.

All theories about “plots” aka “conspiracy” theories have their roots in reason—the better ones, however, in some kind of reasonable doubt.

War with Iran could cause the Dems to lose the election to Trump who has been, until recently ,when he talked about bombing Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, the “Anti-War Guy”/“I never started a war, like all those other Presidents-- and if I had been President there would have no war”.

So keeping the US out of a major ME war right now is in the interests of the current Washington regime . Which means a 3 week ceasefire in Lebanon would have been a win for Kamala Harris.

Washington had to be aware that assassinating Nasrallah could only heat things up – and invite the long-awaited retaliation from Iran. Pezeshkian might be a moderate-- but, as President, his domain is really mostly domestic and matters such as war are decided by the Supreme Commander Khamenei and the IRGC.

Even the geopolitical illiterates in the White House must have understood that much.

It is, however, complicated. Biden is pretty much out of it. Kamala Harris is an air-head. Sullivan and Blinken are Zionist Neocons. Still, if the Dems lose the election, these guys have to find new jobs.

In other words, it was not in the interests of the US to join a “plot” to kill Nasrallah.

That doesn’t mean there wasn’t a plot – just that it was not an American plot — but an Israeli one. Maybe it isn’t only Biden that has dementia — it’s the whole government.

As the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty showed many years ago, Israel doesn’t care much about US interests and knows it can get away with lying and cheating and all manner of nastiness.

The Israelis knew that Nasrallah would be meeting with somebody important from Iran to talk about the “ceasefire”. They assumed the meeting would take place in a bunker in a Hezbollah neighbourhood in central Beirut – so they bombed the area with 85 ~ 90 bombs.

That occasioned the Iranian attack on Israel which clearly demonstrated that Israel has no defense against a major Iranian strike, It’s a small country.

And, Iran has very sophisticated capabilities.

The IRGC made it known that the volley of missiles was inaugurated by a single hypersonic Fatteh 2 which took out the Arrow 3 air defense system’s radar – capable of intercepting missiles in the atmosphere.

And well-informed Iranian military sources stated that hackers went on heavy cyberattack mode to disrupt the Iron Dome system just before the start of the operation.

The IRGC finally confirmed that just about 90% of the intended targets were hit; the implication was that each target was supposed to be visited by several missiles, with some getting intercepted.

It’s open to wide speculation how many F-35s and F-15s were ultimately destroyed or damaged on two air bases, one of which, Nevatim, in the Negev, becoming literally inoperable.

The Iran-Russia military entente – part of their soon to be signed comprehensive strategic partnership – was in effect. The IRGC used the recently supplied Russian electromagnetic jammer to blind Israel-NATO GPS systems – including those of U.S. aircrafts. That explains the Iron Dome far off hitting the empty night skies.
Pepe Escobar Strategic Culture

Israel has promised retaliation and has mentioned possible targets - nuclear facilities which are inland and a stretch to reach —and the much closer oil “storage” facilities, presumably Kharg Island, which handles 90% or Iran’s oil exports by sea.

While Kharg is closer, it is also undoubtedly well-defended with Russian missiles and radars. It has been attacked over the years in various wars, with little effect. The Iranians are prepared — both for defense and response.

Israel would certainly need American help. And any serious attempt at such a strike would result in an immediate and devastating attack on Israeli infrastructure — oil and gas facilities, and its power grid. Maybe IDF barracks. The mild-mannered Pezeshkian wouldn’t be the one calling the literal shots in such a case.

Would the US permit such a Zionist attack? All it would take to stop it would be a phone call.

Without US financial and military support, Israel can not exist. But US policy is determined by politics which is determined by AIPAC and a media narrative. The US can’t say No. So, as it would keep on giving the ZioNazis what they want.

Somehow this arrangement worked in the old days when Israel’s opponents were Arab countries with inferior Soviet weaponry.

But Iran, is different. It is also notable that while Iran is not an Arab state, Khamenei’s recent sermon was partly in Arabic as a sign of open-ness to the largely Sunni Arab world where the US may have “friends” but no allies anymore.

The world is different.

ME war is different these days.

Previous wars were over conclusively in weeks in Israel’s favor. But Israel has been at war with Hamas for a year now and still fighting. It has made things worse buy taking on Hezbollah.

There are other considerations.

The US would not get involved in a war without an overwhelming advantage and local allies as it had in the case of Iraq—nor would it risk getting Russia involved, as might happen given Russian-Iranian cooperation pacts.

The fleet the US is assembling to threaten Hezbollah and Yemen is indeed a show of force. Emphasis on “show”.

Courtesy Will Schryver

That fleet is very vulnerable.

As I predicted, things will get worse — but gradually. There are simply too many problems.

Most likely, the Israelis will focus on Lebanon for the time being, continuing their terror bombing campaign. The Americans will shuffle about and stumble and scratch their heads. The Israelis will keep on talking retaliation and look for someone to assassinate.

This will continue until (at least) the BRICS summit has been concluded. After that, just before the US election - who knows? A good time for an Israeli strike and a massive Iranian counterstrike?

There are few certainties —except that Israel is going downhill fast - and width it the US with ongoing dedollarization.

It is clear to most of the world, that the US is the Past. And BRICS is the future.

It’s the economy, stupid. Jim Carville.

This already is a new Middle East in which the Gulf states are no longer hostile to Iran and which the religious schisms between Sunni and Shia has largely lost its power.

Who then is left of the former U.S. allies? On whom can it call for support in the region when it plans to attack Iran?

Has this whole U.S.-Israeli campaign really helped to "reduce Iran’s influence in Lebanon and the region"? Will continuing it ever do so?

My impression for one is that it has strengthened the front against Israel and the positions of Iran in and beyond the Middle East.

I agree with B. at Moon of Alabama.

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