Japan's road to nowhere
Here in Japan we have an example of an unpopular prime minister who got a drubbing at the polls doubling down on stupid.
We saw that with Macron in France, in Germany with Scholz, and of course in Canada with Trudeau. So it is not just a Japanese thing. Ishiba, however, is the successor to the hugely unpopular Kishida who succeeded the ever so unpopular Suga.There’s a trend here, which tells you something about the evolution of Japanese politics, keeping in mind that politics in Japan are not quite like those in any other country.
Each of the recent Japanese PMs were selected by their party, with a lot of backroom wheeling and dealing. The Japanese people are used to that. Japan is essentially a one-party state, rather less democratic than China where the CCP has to be responsive to public needs,unlike Japan where the LDP is only really responsive to corporate and bureaucratic elites—Wolferen’s “iron triangle”.
Ishiba, aware of his successor’s signature unpopularity, held an election in October, to make a pretense of being democratic.
His coalition. however. lost its majority in the lower house. Now he is talking about a general election in late Spring or early summer to confirm his policies, especially his recent budget which boosted defense spending to a record 8.7 trillion yen.
Yes, Japan will be buying Aegis systems with Tomahawk missiles, more F35s, investing in the UK-Italian 6th Generation joint fighter project. It has a shopping list to show it is a loyal American ally in the US’s Pacific alliance.
Ishiba and his people hope to buy off Trump. But Trump is a shark. He will smell blood and come for Japan as it thrashes about. .
Officials in Tokyo have heard that the incoming Trump team plans to group countries into three buckets—allies, adversaries, and others—and to assess tariffs on each depending on how countries perform on four criteria:
the level and direction of their defense spending
the level and direction of their bilateral trade imbalance with the United States
how many U.S. Treasury securities they purchase
whether they manipulate their currency
What does this mean?
Let me translate for you!
Defense spending must be supportive of American hegemony and use American weapons.
The “bilateral” trade “imbalance” includes trade for good goods that a country can supply at lower cost and/ or higher quality—as is the case with Chinese goods.
Japan has been selling off US treasuries for some time - as has most of the rest of the world. That won’t change.
“Manipulating” currency really means "a country trading in its own currency and using financial instruments other than American controlled oncs — as in BRICS.
These criteria indicate the weakness — not the strength of the American position.
In reality, the Japanese are in a stronger position with regard to the US than they think..
The Japanese still have a very strong technological base - although increasingly lacking young people entering engineering, compared to Russia, China, India and Iran. They are still leaders in some areas.
So the country has leverage. If it wants to use it.
Keep in mind….
China, not the US, is Japan’s biggest trading partner and Russia, a major supplier of LNG.
The US thinks it needs those military bases in Japan —but Japan certainly does not! Who do they protect against?
As for defense procurements - the equipment Japan buys from the US is a generation behind China and Russia, unreasonably expensive — and mostly not suited to Japanese needs – only to American needs in the case of a war with China.
Such procurements are a giveway to American defense industries.
When people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard. The risk is you'll make a bad situation worse, and I certainly don't recommend this approach to everyone. But my experience is that if you're fighting for something you believe in — even if it means alienating some people along the way — things usually work out for the best in the end. The Art of the Deal.
I am not saying the Japanese should try to play hardball.
But a modicum of independence would help to get some helpful if temporary dispensations,
Observor status at BRICs, for example. Other US “allies” do it— including Turkiye. Why not Japan?.
Likewise, defense procurement should be open —with options considered from other countries, Japan has done it before. Why not today? Many countries do it.
Ishiba’s government won’t even consider any kind of alternative strategies. But if the LDP flubs a General Election, another government might.
It’s the economy stupid.
The Japanese are not really interested in foreign policy. They are used to corruption in government.
What they want is help with the cost of living, better wages and employment, and a thriving economy. They want a better quality of life.
Clearly, with the decline of the American empire, Japan can no longer rely on the US and Europe and the rest of the G7.
The Japanese didn’t vote for Ishiba last time— and in a General Election, they are unlikely to vote for him again.
NONE of this matters.
WHY?
The USA is dead.
Because of lack of education.
3/4 of the people in the USA have NO idea where Japan is on a map!
Do they even know where Chile is? NO.
I remember quite clearly going to a Doctor in the USA. Filling out forms!!!!!
" oh" the receptionist says to me: "I see you were born in Sri Lanka, where is that country in relation to S. America?"
It sounds like Japan is run entirely for the benefit of The United Snakes of America, by castrated lickspittle. At least they don't wear spats, monocles and top-hats any longer... Or do they?